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The Zurich Chess Challenge gets underway Friday (a blitz tournament to determine colours) with 6 of the world's top dozen players, Caruana (3), Nakamura (6), Kramnik (8), Anand (9), Aronian (11), and Karjakin (12).It's a double round-robin but with one game classical and the other rapid. The classical games are scored 2-1-0 while the rapid games (with colours reversed) are scored 1-1/2-0
In terms of betting, Anand is the only player at better than 5 to 1 odds. I can't say I like any of these numbers but I'd certainly bet Nakamura before I'd bet Caruana (who likely gets 3 Blacks in the classical games since he's clearly the weakest blitz player in this group). Nakamura has good scores against everyone here except for Aronian (plus 5, minus 10, equal 11) and Aronian has been out of form for almost a year now. Nakamura absolutely owns Anand, plus 4, minus zero, equal 9 and plus 9, minus 1, equal 13 if you include quicker time controls. It will be interesting to see what the draw odds are in the Nakamura - Caruana game since they've drawn 16/20 or 80% of their games, with Nakamura winning 3 of the 4 decisive results.
In terms of betting, Anand is the only player at better than 5 to 1 odds. I can't say I like any of these numbers but I'd certainly bet Nakamura before I'd bet Caruana (who likely gets 3 Blacks in the classical games since he's clearly the weakest blitz player in this group).
Do you make bets on the chess games or is this for information?
Do you make bets on the chess games or is this for information?
The latter, Gary, but I'm seriously thinking of opening an account since I seem to have a special 'knack' for spotting positive mathematical expectation opportunities (:
In my youth I was a gambler by trade (mostly card games like poker, blackjack, cribbage, and hearts but I'd also frequently winter in Florida to bet the horses since many in my poker circuit were short of cash post xmas) but I didn't really consider it 'gambling' per se. I had the requisite patience to go to the racetrack for days on end without making a single bet until I'd eventually come across an outstanding bet. Once I became a CFP, I applied many of these same betting principles to investing (:
However even an out of form Aronian is very dangerous, especially he seems to do well against Nakamura and Anand, not so well against Caruana and Carlsen. Kinda too bad Carlsen isn't playing, it would make the blitz much more interesting (what is the time control anyway?). At any rate all these guys are great players and it should be a great event. It's nice to see Karjakin playing, I haven't seen him playing in a long time though of course you have to take into account I don't follow every single 2600+ tournament (usually 2700+ though) so I could be wrong.
However even an out of form Aronian is very dangerous, especially he seems to do well against Nakamura and Anand, not so well against Caruana and Carlsen. Kinda too bad Carlsen isn't playing, it would make the blitz much more interesting (what is the time control anyway?). At any rate all these guys are great players and it should be a great event. It's nice to see Karjakin playing, I haven't seen him playing in a long time though of course you have to take into account I don't follow every single 2600+ tournament (usually 2700+ though) so I could be wrong.
You're spot on re Aronian vs Anand and Nakamura, Caleb. And you can also throw Karjakin into that mix since he's plus 9, minus 3, equal 13 against him. Aronian fares well enough against Caruana, plus 4, minus 4, equal 5 in slower time controls and plus 3, minus 1, equal 3 in quicker time controls. He hasn't fared so well against Kramnik, however, plus 3, minus 7, equal 23. A year ago, Aronian would have been the clear favourite to win this event since he beats up on 3 of his opponents. Maybe this is the tournament Aronian regains his form (:
Here's a surprising statistical anomaly. Bobby Fischer only won 7 major tournaments cited in that Wikipedia link in the '23rd Super-Tournamnent Victory' thread. Levon Aronian has won 13 major tournaments therein so his next super-tournament win (assuming he will someday regain his form) will give him twice as many as Fischer (:
Last edited by Jack Maguire; Tuesday, 10th February, 2015, 07:03 PM.
I had thought that Aronian perhaps might have more super-tournament wins than Caruana, Karjakin, and Nakamura combined but the triumvirate edge him 14 (Karjakin 6, Caruana 5, Nakamura 3) to 13.
A Blitz Tournament will determine the colors distribution on the first day. Five rounds of Classical Chess will then be played from Saturday, February 14th to Wednesday, February 18th followed by a Rapid Tournament with reversed colors on the last day (February 19th).
A won game in the classical tournament counts two points, draws one point. Wins in the rapid tournament count one point and draws half a point.
Schedule
Classical tournament from Saturday, February 14, 2015 to Wednesday, February 18, 2015, starting at 3 pm.
Rapid tournament on Thursday, February 19, 2015, starting at 11 am followed by the Closing Ceremony, also public.
3 p.m. Zurich is 9 a.m. Toronto/Montreal
Commentators
The GM's Nigel Short, Jan Rogers, Gennadi Sosonko and Ljubomir Ljubojevic will support GM Yannick Pelletier and IM Werner Hug as guest commentators in the worldwide live broadcast at www.zurich-cc.com/games.html.
Leonxto Garcia from Spain, Frédéric Friedel (Chessbase, Germany) and many more journalists from over the world are going to report this super tournament.
Events
Among the Who′s Who at the Opening Ceremony (February 13th) on the stage of this great event at Zurich will be not only Arturo Pérez-Reverte, the Spanish author of the detective novel «La tabla de Flandes» («The Flanders Panel», a dialogue between literature, painting and chess) but also the world renowned Cellist Boris Andrianov, the first Russian cellist to become a laureate at the 6th International Rostropovich competition in Paris .
Following the Rapid Tournament on the final day (February 19th), the public Closing Ceremony with a musical contribution of the «Trio Capriccio Zürich» and the Prize Giving Ceremony will end this extraordinary chess festival.
The supporting programme features Sergej Karjakin who will be playing a simultaneous exhibition against representatives of the sponsors at the «Zunfthaus zur Saffran» on February 12th.
Furthermore, we are particularily looking forward to a Rapid Competition between the two famous chessplayers Viktor Kortchnoi and Wolfgang Uhlmann who both made a lasting impression on the chess scene at their best. They will celebrate their 84th and 80th birthday respectively in March 2015! This event will be held on February 15th (rounds 1 and 2) and February 16th (rounds 3 and 4), both days at 11am at the Hotel "Savoy Baur en Ville" and preceded by a short overview about the bygone chess history by the president of the «Emanuel Lasker Gesellschaft», Paul Werner Wagner.
The blitz ratings are certainly a good deal more volatile. Through 3 rounds, Caruana has picked up 19.6 rating points for his plus 1, Aronian 18.6 for his plus 2, and Anand 17.0 for his plus 2. Karjakin has lost a whopping 29.8 rating points for his minus 3 and Nakamura 20.2 for his minus 1. Only Kramnik is not seeing a big gain/loss, minus 5.2 for his minus 1.
Aronian finished clear 1st with plus 3, Anand and Caruana were both plus 2, while Nakamura was minus 1 and the 2 Russians, Karjakin and Kramnik, both minus 3.
This has changed the betting odds at Marathon since Aronian has jumped from the 5th pick earlier today to the 3rd.
by Alejandro Ramirez of ChessBase. Quite frankly, if all reports were so well-written, there would be no need for chess magazines (and I love chess magazines!)
With the blitz finished, the pairings for the classical portion are as follows:
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