Trump - The NEW, New Thread

[Ben Daswani]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnc2UWA7BPY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFQ4nuUuwNo

[Neil Frarey]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

An interesting read: Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump. But what does it say about educated Trump supporters? It says sometimes you can't polish a turd.

And speaking of not always being able to polish a turd; former Attorney General Loretta Lynch using 'Elizabeth Carlisle' as an email alias to conduct government business.

...tisk tisk.

[Ben Daswani]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

An interesting read: Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump. But what does it say about educated Trump supporters? It says sometimes you can't polish a turd.

[Sid Belzberg]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-d...bout-the-world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnc2UWA7BPY

[Peter McKillop]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-d...bout-the-world

[Sid Belzberg]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

Interesting article by long time Democrat Alan Dershowitz
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/al...rticle/2618871

Here is an interesting background to what Intersectionality is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intersectionality

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

I am sure that these numbers are the same as last time when you consider the margins of error.

Don't worry about The Donald's polls right now... I'm doubt they'll be a factor further down the road in regard to whatever is in store of real significance.

Fwiw, during the 2016 election campaign my only sibling, Neil (not meaning Mr. Frarey) said to me he didn't think Trump would be a good politician. I replied "What do you mean? He's lying, blustering and bullying his opponents... he's an excellent politician". Neil just grinned. :)

When it comes to cold-blooded, cynical predictions, my usual political genius deserted me when it came to Kevin O'Leary running for the Conservative leadership that year, however. My brother said Kevin wouldn't be a good politician, either. I replied that he'd win due to his celebrity factor, much like Trudeau the Son did, and that Kevin would be the only hope of defeating Justin in the next federal election. Clearly, like my namesake did, I underestimated the matter of him only being unilingual (he gave up early due to it, anyway).

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

Trump's approval rating continues declining.

538 (Nate Silver) - 36.6%
Real Clear Politics - 38.0%

These are both averages of several major polls.

I am sure that these numbers are the same as last time when you consider the margins of error.

[Bob Gillanders]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

Yes, all aboard the Titanic!
Trump polls are failing, slowly but surely.
Trumps approval ratings:
538 (Nate Silver) 37.8% (day 1 45.5%)
Real Clear Politics: 39.2% (day 1 44.3%)

Trump's approval rating continues declining.

538 (Nate Silver) - 36.6%
Real Clear Politics - 38.0%

These are both averages of several major polls.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

At the very least take the effort and do some prep, Paul. Come back here when you've got something worthwhile.

Here's a good place for you to start:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Are+free+trial+...ness+tactic%3F

Have a nice day!

Hey, Neil, I'm back and I have a free trial offer! You get 2 free weekend passes to my new business: The HammerHead Electric Club!

Members stand in front of a super large 80" 4K display that is constantly streaming Trump news. Every time the word "Trump" is heard on the news, each member hits himself or herself in the head with the rounded end of a 12 oz. ball peen hammer!

Everyone is attached to a 20,000 volt electric circuit, and if anyone fails to hit their head with the hammer when the word "Trump" is mentioned, they get a 5 second shock.

Last person standing is the winner!

Normal membership fee is $50 per year plus cost of TrumpCare enrollment.

Free trial! So Neil.... you gonna join? :D:D:D

[Neil Frarey]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

Great piece from FoxNews Neil Cavuto

http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/...boy-cover.html

[Neil Frarey]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

Wrong.

Neil, you obviously don't understand lagging indicators. You are so desperate to create a silver lining to the disaster that has been the Trump Presidency....

As shown here, from September 2016, the food stamp numbers were receding at a record-setting pace. And the article explains why:

"The primary driver, according to Trussell, is the reinstitution of work rules by states. During the financial crisis, the federal government allowed states to waive requirements regarding employment for SNAP recipients as the unemployment rate soared.

Recently, however, this policy has changed as the unemployment rate has now dropped to below 5% for the country. .... Twenty-two states have implemented new work rules in 2016, in addition to 15 that had already put them back in place."

So in 2009, the Great Recession was raging due to deregulation of the banking industry leading to the mortgage securities crisis...

Thanks Dubya!

Obama bailed out GM and Chrysler to restore a sense of economic control and stability. Simultaneously the FED was engaged in Quantitive Easing.

Gradually.... GRADUALLY, NEIL!.... the unemployment rate was brought down, jobs were created, the economy began to recover, but of course, the food stamp program was at record usage even in 2014 because of the built-in lag. Without that lag -- if the waivers had been ended a couple of years sooner -- the recovery would have sputtered and stalled.

You need to learn this kind of stuff if you really want to grow the CFC. You show a general tendency of oversimplification, much like Trump himself.

You say things are "easy peasy" without even understanding the fundamentals. For example, your idea of offering trial CFC memberships good for 2 or 3 rated CFC weekend events. There are 2 things to consider about this idea:

(1) with respect to juniors, this is merely going to delay new revenue to the CFC because the new juniors that take advantage of it are ones that are fully intending (or their parents are fully intending) to join the CFC anyway. So yeah, take advantage, delay that membership payment for a few rated events. There are very few juniors that are "on the fence" about joining the CFC and need a few trial events to convince them. Juniors are primarily brought to the CFC by their parents, and for those that are brought in, the parents' minds are already made up: "Yes, I want my kid(s) in the CFC. Oh, look, a trial membership, ok, let's use that before we have to actually pay."

(2) with respect to adults, you are going to be lucky to get 5% of trial memberships turning into actual paid memberships. You might get some decent number of adults using the trial memberships... they will get crushed (mostly by Juniors) in 2 or 3 rated events.... and they won't come back, except for the very few masochistic ones who have no social life (there's always a few of those).

The problem isn't so simple as getting people out to enter tournaments. The problem is getting them to totally enjoy the tournament experience, enough to throw away their normal weekend social life. This is the fundamental Neil Frarey (and many others before him) just doesn't get.

"Sell the sizzle, not the steak" doesn't work for chess, because once you get past the sizzle, the elite get the filet mignon and the rest get nothing but gristle.

Oversimplification of complex problems is a trait that Neil Frarey and Trump have in common. "Who knew that healthcare would be so complicated?" from Trump himself, ha ha ha !!!!!

Fred McKim, you have been suckered. But I did love how you offered Neil his true value ($1).

At the very least take the effort and do some prep, Paul. Come back here when you've got something worthwhile.

Here's a good place for you to start:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Are+free+trial+...ness+tactic%3F

Have a nice day!

[Paul Bonham]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

2009 32 million Americans trying to survive on food stamps.

2016 46 million Americans trying to survive on food stamps.

Thanks Obama!

Wrong.

Neil, you obviously don't understand lagging indicators. You are so desperate to create a silver lining to the disaster that has been the Trump Presidency....

As shown here, from September 2016, the food stamp numbers were receding at a record-setting pace. And the article explains why:

"The primary driver, according to Trussell, is the reinstitution of work rules by states. During the financial crisis, the federal government allowed states to waive requirements regarding employment for SNAP recipients as the unemployment rate soared.

Recently, however, this policy has changed as the unemployment rate has now dropped to below 5% for the country. .... Twenty-two states have implemented new work rules in 2016, in addition to 15 that had already put them back in place."

So in 2009, the Great Recession was raging due to deregulation of the banking industry leading to the mortgage securities crisis...

Thanks Dubya!

Obama bailed out GM and Chrysler to restore a sense of economic control and stability. Simultaneously the FED was engaged in Quantitive Easing.

Gradually.... GRADUALLY, NEIL!.... the unemployment rate was brought down, jobs were created, the economy began to recover, but of course, the food stamp program was at record usage even in 2014 because of the built-in lag. Without that lag -- if the waivers had been ended a couple of years sooner -- the recovery would have sputtered and stalled.

You need to learn this kind of stuff if you really want to grow the CFC. You show a general tendency of oversimplification, much like Trump himself.

You say things are "easy peasy" without even understanding the fundamentals. For example, your idea of offering trial CFC memberships good for 2 or 3 rated CFC weekend events. There are 2 things to consider about this idea:

(1) with respect to juniors, this is merely going to delay new revenue to the CFC because the new juniors that take advantage of it are ones that are fully intending (or their parents are fully intending) to join the CFC anyway. So yeah, take advantage, delay that membership payment for a few rated events. There are very few juniors that are "on the fence" about joining the CFC and need a few trial events to convince them. Juniors are primarily brought to the CFC by their parents, and for those that are brought in, the parents' minds are already made up: "Yes, I want my kid(s) in the CFC. Oh, look, a trial membership, ok, let's use that before we have to actually pay."

(2) with respect to adults, you are going to be lucky to get 5% of trial memberships turning into actual paid memberships. You might get some decent number of adults using the trial memberships... they will get crushed (mostly by Juniors) in 2 or 3 rated events.... and they won't come back, except for the very few masochistic ones who have no social life (there's always a few of those).

The problem isn't so simple as getting people out to enter tournaments. The problem is getting them to totally enjoy the tournament experience, enough to throw away their normal weekend social life. This is the fundamental Neil Frarey (and many others before him) just doesn't get.

"Sell the sizzle, not the steak" doesn't work for chess, because once you get past the sizzle, the elite get the filet mignon and the rest get nothing but gristle.

Oversimplification of complex problems is a trait that Neil Frarey and Trump have in common. "Who knew that healthcare would be so complicated?" from Trump himself, ha ha ha !!!!!

Fred McKim, you have been suckered. But I did love how you offered Neil his true value ($1).

[Neil Frarey]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

2009 32 million Americans trying to survive on food stamps.

2016 46 million Americans trying to survive on food stamps.

Thanks Obama!

[Lucas Davies]

Re: Trump - The NEW, New Thread

July 2016: 255k new jobs (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/05/nonf...july-2016.html)
July 2015: 215k new jobs (http://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-...ugust-7-2015-8)
July 2014: 288k new jobs (https://www.theguardian.com/business...ent-rate-drops)

Thanks Obama!