Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

[Bob Armstrong]

Mulcair, Trudeau & Quebec

NDP Opposition Leader, Thomas Mulcair

By: Chantal Hébert National Affairs, Published on Mon Apr 29 2013 - The Star.com

The tendency to prematurely write the political obituaries of living leaders the better to marvel at their resurrection if and when the need arises is one of the less endearing features of Canadian punditry....

But the fine print of the Harris/Decima polls reveals that even in the midst of a mini-wave of Trudeaumania, Mulcair is alive and kicking in Quebec.

On most leadership-related questions (with the notable exception of who would best represent Canada abroad) Quebecers give Mulcair higher scores than Trudeau.

Sixty-three per cent have a favorable impression of the NDP leader and four in ten Quebec voters believe that he has the judgment and the experience to be prime minister.........

Mulcair’s solid Quebec standing does not guarantee that the NDP will make the leap to power in 2015 [ Bob - I think it does!]. But the NDP has strong roots in most of the rest of the country and a history of sturdiness in electoral adversity. That combination suggests that the party will not easily be pushed out of Quebec and back to the margins of the House of Commons.

With Ontario a three-way battlefield and the Prairies a long-time Liberal no-man’s land, Trudeau has to do better in Quebec to bring his party back to the major leagues in the next election.

The evidence suggests that to reach that goal he will have to climb over Mulcair’s far-from-dead body. For now it might be wise to give the media shovels a rest.

Do you think Chantal is right that Trudeau in Quebec is over-hyped?

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

The Ont. NDP are making some progress but the problem is the same one that exists federally - the split in the centre left:

Global News @globalnews: If a provincial election were held today, 37% of voters would support Hudak, 29% NDP and 28% Liberals.

In a minority situation in Ontario it's more likely the NDP would form the government as I can't picture the liberals or ndp supporting the Cons.

The PC's neanderthal approach to labour relations and return to the past could easily cost them votes. Depends if people want to watch confrontation.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

The Ont. NDP are making some progress but the problem is the same one that exists federally - the split in the centre left:

Global News @globalnews: If a provincial election were held today, 37% of voters would support Hudak, 29% NDP and 28% Liberals.

Still this may indicate the possibility of the Federal NDP gaining Ontario seats, in their march towards becoming the federal government.

However, it is true that this scenario may be derailed (and result in a successive PC gov't) if the LPC resurge and the centre-left vote is split. The potential of the alleged Liberal PC revival is unclear at this point.

Bob A

[Zeljko Kitich]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

The CCF was not communist. Canada had an active Communist Party at the time lead by Tim Buck. The CPC and the CCF could not abide each other.

Depends on who you believe. If you believe the RCMP anyone with an interest in social conditions during the Great Depression or who resisted the idea of enlistment for the First World War were communist. It didn't take much. Don't forget the FBI followed Fischer around because he spoke Russian and ordered material in Russian. JS Woodsworth was one of the early guiding light of the CCF and a parlimentarian. He was a also a former minister, not particularly prone to following communism's atheism I think but an early campaigner for social justice. Don't forget that Bennett and King, Conservative and Liberal both, did nothing for the Canadian people during the depression. The standard line was that there was work for anyone who looked hard enough. The On to Ottawa march was halted in Regina after the RCMP shot down a number of marchers. I'm not an NDPer but you can't be very proud of the other parties record during that time especially Bennett but King was almost as bad. During the same ere Hoover was obsessed with tracking down homosexuals and communists but moved not at all against organized crime.

[Ken Craft]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

I don't have any of my history books at the office but I'm happy to consult some hsitories of the era when I get home. The animus between the the CPC and the CCFNDP also played out in the union movement.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

I don't need wikpedia for a reference. I remember them from Manitoba. If you like Wikpedia, here's a paragraph from one writeup.

"For the next few years, the CCF's primary concern was preventing infiltration from Communists (then officially represented by the Labour Progressive Party). Some figures in the LPP favoured cooperation with the CCF; the CCF leadership was fully opposed to this, and suspended two prominent Manitoba MLAs when they advocated formal cooperation. Accusations of being "Communist sympathizers" would hinder the party's fortunes for years to come."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Co-oper...oba_Section%29

I don't know about the accuracy of all that but it's in Wikpedia which you seem to use for source material.

[Ken Craft]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

That would be essentially correct. The CPC marched to Moscow's drum during those years.

ETA: Moscow had a policy of Popular Fronts in the 30's. Please see the below from Wikipaedia:
Solidarity efforts around the Spanish Civil War, as well as many labour and social struggles during the Depression, saw much cooperation between members of the CPC and the CCF. After 1935 the CPC advocated electoral alliances and unity with the CCF on key issues. The proposal was debated in the CCF, with the 1936 BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan conventions generally supporting cooperation while the Ontario convention opposed. While the motion was defeated at that Parties third federal convention, the Communists continued to call for a united front.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Canada

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

The CCF was not communist.

Does this mean communists didn't gravitate toward the CCF?

[Ken Craft]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

No, but it appears its precursor the CCF was communist (or at least accused to be). The CCF was against capitalism, at least it says so at one point within the link I gave in an earlier post.

The CCF was not communist. Canada had an active Communist Party at the time lead by Tim Buck. The CPC and the CCF could not abide each other.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

I think Bob Rae as Ont. NDP Premier gets a bad rap.

He took office at the time of one of the worst recessions in recent history.

Hi Bob,

Too bad his main promise was to bring in public auto insurance and he didn't do it. Do you recall that? He was elected to do something specific and failed.

By the time the election rolled along he had even alienated much of his union support base. Workers were upset which is not good for the NDP.

Then, for a reason unknown to me, he went almost the entire 5 years of his mandate which signals a government in trouble.


Gary

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

...This is starting to feel like the last year or two of the Bob Rae provincial majority. Much of the criticism slowed down and people simply went to the polls and took away the NDP mandate....

Hi Gary:

I think Bob Rae as Ont. NDP Premier gets a bad rap.

He took office at the time of one of the worst recessions in recent history.

His "Rae Days" were a very egalitarian way of exerting financial pressure needed. The unions pilloried him for this, and I think their campaign lastingly influenced the public on an assessment of the Ontario NDP years in power.

Great article: http://www.thestar.com/opinion/edito...ship-is-a-myth

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

I'll be holding my nose and voting NDP in 2015.

ETA: The NDP has never been communist.

I doubt your vote will influence my wager with Bob. :)

I don't know if the good they would do by taxing the rich and giving it to me in services outweighs the money wasted for what passes as climate science and bad policy ( like not allowing a pipeline to the coast).

The NDP probably has a chance of at least a minority government in Ontario but I think the more they support the Liberal government the less the chance of that happening.

This is starting to feel like the last year or two of the Bob Rae provincial majority. Much of the criticism slowed down and people simply went to the polls and took away the NDP mandate.

If I were to write a book on that I'd call it something like From the Outhouse to the Penthouse and Back in 5 Zany Years.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

...
ETA: The NDP has never been communist.

No, but it appears its precursor the CCF was communist (or at least accused to be). The CCF was against capitalism, at least it says so at one point within the link I gave in an earlier post.

ETA: the NDP has never officially been communist, afaik, that is.

ETA: P.S.: will Mulcair ever reprove/disipline the (former?) communist NDP member who recently slagged Vimy, etc.?

[Ken Craft]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

If you're not personally appalled that the NDP has dropped its reference to its socalist (and, earlier, communist, if I might add) roots, then expect Ken Craft may be. Ken once posted long ago that he is a socialist, I recall.

I'll be holding my nose and voting NDP in 2015.

ETA: The NDP has never been communist.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

An April 17 Globe Newspaper Tweet:

"Polls give B.C. NDP near-insurmountable lead over Liberals."

Will likely be fertile ground for the federal NDP to garner votes in the next federal election. Has to give Trudeau & Harper some cause for concern (as I understand it, the BC Liberals house both partisan Liberals and Conservatives).

Bob A