Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Bob,

It seems Trudeau is trying to move back into the house where he grew up. Probably take away some NDP votes in Quebec.

I think you might have bet the wrong election. The NDP probably has a better chance of winning in Ontario if they pull the plug fast enough. At least get the official opposition. In a minority after an election I could see the Libs propping up the NDP.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Bob,

The problem, in my opinion, is more than the governance structure.

Gary

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Gary:

1. not entirely sure what you are referring to, but there will be no borrowing from the Chess Foundation;
2. The president is elected by the Governors at the moment. There is a report that is proposing to change the governance structure quite radically, but it is at the moment unclear if it will come to a vote this meeting. Still in progress.

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

By the way, Bob, I notice the CFC is trying to get rid of what amounts to their union. I can't dload the proposal the governors will vote because I'm not registered on that message board.

I read the thread. No mention of the rather sizeable foundation. Are there any statements of intent regarding that or undertakings to the membership regarding the foundation and funds? I didn't notice anyone asking that.

Will the membership vote on the CFC president?

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Bob,

I'm not surprised Harper is still scoring well in the polls. The main opposition parties will both have new leaders who are unknown quantities.

Many tend to let federal and provincial politics blend. The provincial Liberals aren't doing well in Quebec and Ontario where there are a lot of ridings. Probably the next federal election will come after an Ontario election and we'll see how the Libs and NDP do there. If the Cons win Ontario it will likely be a sign the voters are fed up with waste.

Harper likely gets another term. Majority or minority I don't know. Or maybe Trudeau with catch the voters imagination. Harper starts with a lead of around 30 ridings in Alberta.

Had Quebec been the last province to have their votes counted last election, there would already have been a majority federal government without even counting their votes. 75 ridings which made no difference.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Here's one that will knock your socks off ( can the public be trusted with the vote? ):


" Despite the federal Liberal party’s third-party status, most Canadians think its next leader will become prime minister and are anticipating that person to be Justin Trudeau, according to a new survey.

An Ipsos Reid survey done for Global TV and Postmedia News found that 56 per cent of those polled think the next Liberal leader, to be chosen April 14, will become prime minster “someday.” Thirteen per cent agreed “strongly” with this, while 44 per cent agreed “somewhat.” Those numbers added to more than 56 per cent because of rounding. "

Website: http://www.globalnews.ca/pages/story...aign=community

Seems like the public aren't expecting any left-of-centre mergers to happen!

Bob A

[Ken Kurkowski]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

I just mentioned this to my wife, and she said "it's because the opposition is fractured". I agree 100%. With centre and left-of-centre Canadians divided between the NDP, Lib's, a possibly resurgent Bloc in Quebec and (increasingly) the Greens, the Conservatives could become the Canadian equivalent of India's Congress Party (but not philosophically), which has ruled for decades (I think) in that country.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Poll suggests Tories and NDP currently in statistical tie: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...d.html?cmp=rss

I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!

Bob A, NDP supporter

Hi Gary:

Now it is my turn to claim that polls do not necessarily foretell future election results. Here is a 2012 year-end poll that is somewhat of a downer going into 2013 for a certain left-leaning segment of the population:


" The Ipsos Reid survey, conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global TV, reveals that Harper’s governing Conservatives, 20 months after winning re-election, are maintaining a steady core of support among voters.

Pollsters say that at this point in a government’s mandate, public opinion has often begun to turn against an incumbent prime minister.

But that isn’t happening with Harper’s Tories, who were elected with 39.6 of the vote in the May 2011 election.

On a range of questions — such as whether Harper is doing a good job, is representing the “values” of people, and should run again in the 2015 election, the prime minister has support levels among Canadians that exceed 40 per cent. [ sigh - my emphasis added ]

And although most Canadians dislike Harper and his approach to politics [ me - he is not loved ], their clout in the next election is diminished by the fact that their vote is split between opposition parties [ me - ouch!! ].

“He’s solid, solid, solid.” Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said of the prime minister. "


Website: http://www.globaltoronto.com/stephen...aign=community

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Gary:

... ( while holding onto what they've got! ). That will bring home the bacon!

Bob

Holding on to what they've got will be the hard part. Particularly in Quebec.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Bob,

I thought I'd post this picture for you to cheer up your holidays.

Hi Gary:

Nice Diagram - what it tells me is there is lots of room for the federal NDP to expand in the next election ( while holding onto what they've got! ). That will bring home the bacon!

Bob

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Bob,

I thought I'd post this picture for you to cheer up your holidays.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Those in Second Try Harder!!

Hi Gary:

I think the Liberal sponsorship scandal of yesteryear still looms large in Quebec ( and the provincial Liberal debacle in the construction industry reminds them of that ). So, even with a Trudeau ( and there were lots of Quebecers who hated Trudeau ), I don't think the NDP will fare worse in Quebec. But I agree they must do better in the ROC to get the governing party title. They may do better in Ontario than previously, if the provincial NDP vote will be of some assistance.

Bob A

Hi Bob,

I never voted for Trudeau. Looking at his policies the NEP wasn't as bad as the reputation it got. The national oil company was sold off. Now, like the U.S. we don't have a national oil company. Not to worry, though. Other nations national oil companies are snapping up our resources and developing them. I wonder if they will bring in their own workers and leave Albertans to work in the fast food industry.

I'd give you my opinion and some background on the CNOOK takeover of Nexen and the Canadian assets but I don't want to do it on a public message board. I'll leave it at saying I don't think CNOOK got much for their money and have to think the Nexen foreign assets have to be the most interesting.

I doubt the Ontario vote will have much effect on the next federal vote. The Ontario liberal leader is unknown. I consider the conservative leader to not be the best. The NDP leader will appeal to those who think it's a good idea to trade the future for present gain. They need for the liberal vote to collapse and support the NDP.

Canada has now reached a population of 35 million, according to my newspaper, and I don't think two left wing political parties are practical. It took the Conservatives a few loses on the federal scene to realize two right wing parties split the vote so they merged.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Those in Second Try Harder!!

In Quebec, I doubt the NDP will hold all they now have in the next federal election. Last time looked like a protest vote and I expect next time there will be a return to their normal voting patterns.

Hi Gary:

I think the Liberal sponsorship scandal of yesteryear still looms large in Quebec ( and the provincial Liberal debacle in the construction industry reminds them of that ). So, even with a Trudeau ( and there were lots of Quebecers who hated Trudeau ), I don't think the NDP will fare worse in Quebec. But I agree they must do better in the ROC to get the governing party title. They may do better in Ontario than previously, if the provincial NDP vote will be of some assistance.

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Those in Second Try Harder!!

P.S. And yes, from time to time, I even read the Sun, though it does have it's leanings.

Well, I'm a small part owner of the Toronto Star, though it does have it's leanings. :)

Are there enough ridings in B.C. and Quebec to give the NDP the government? My take on B.C. is the Green Party will pick up votes and win some of the B.C. ridings. In Quebec, I doubt the NDP will hold all they now have in the next federal election. Last time looked like a protest vote and I expect next time there will be a return to their normal voting patterns.

The NDP "might" win a minority in Ontario but that's not our wager. The Cons had a big lead going into the last provincial election and still didn't win. I never really knew what they wanted to do if they won that election. I guess we'll have to see if they present a coherent platform which will appeal to the voters next time.

Personally, I think McGuinty is missing the boat with the current teachers rotating strikes. He should lock them out until after the Xmas break and then he wouldn't have to pay them for the vacation time.

In any case, them doing the rotating strikes and forgoing a days pay helps to balance the budget. Personally, I think the kids should take off the month of January and let the teachers sit in the class rooms by themselves. It would likely force the government to take some action on defining proper job descriptions for teachers which include extra curricular activities. The kids are the teachers bread and butter.

[Bob Armstrong]

Those in Second Try Harder!!

Hi Gary:

Interesting article in Sun News about a year end poll ( http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews...W0oeGE.twitter ):

- The governing Conservatives remain Canada's most-preferred federal party, though their popularity has dropped to a two-year low, according to a new poll done exclusively for Sun News Network.
The poll by Abacus Data also finds that both the federal NDP and the federal Liberals are finishing the year with slightly more support than the beginning of the year.

Abacus CEO David Coletto said the combination of a soon-to-be-chosen new federal Liberal leader with what Coletto called "underwhelming impressions" Canadians have of NDP leader Thomas Mulcair and continued negative ratings for Prime Minister Stephen Harper point to a new year of political uncertainty.

"The candidacy of someone like Justin Trudeau for Liberal leader could fundamentally alter the political landscape as a volatile and uneasy electorate looks for a candidate and a party that offers it something different," said Coletto. "Justin may not save the Liberal Party but the political conditions are so that the enthusiasm and dynamism he would bring to Canadian politics could have a profound impact on voting intention and political attitudes in 2013."

The poll also shows sharp regional differences. The Conservatives are strong in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario; the New Democrats dominate in BC and Quebec; and the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada.

Overall though, Abacus found 34% of those surveyed support the Conservatives. That's down two percentage points since Abacus' last survey in November and is down from 40% a year ago.

The Conservatives have not been that low in the polls since November 2010, when 33% of voters were on their side.
Mulcair's New Democrats finish the year at 32% while the Liberals are at 22%, a year-over-year improvement of one point for the NDP and 4 points for the Liberals.

So..........

Conservatives - 34%
NDP - 32%
Liberals - 22%

Doesn't shake my belief that the NDP will form the next Federal Government, and I"ll collect a very prized $ 20!!

Bob A

P.S. And yes, from time to time, I even read the Sun, though it does have it's leanings.