2014 Predictions

[Kevin Pacey]

Here's my predictions for 2014:

Chess predictions:

1. Canada will have at least one more GM before the end of 2014;

2. Canada will have a female player with a regular IM title before the end of 2014;

3. The CFC will survive 2014 in spite of being pressed to change its structure to comply with new Federal regulations;

4. There will not be an eight (8) piece tablebase produced in 2014;

5. The Ivanov controversy will be completely resolved in practice by the end of 2014.


Non-chess predictions (the coming year might be called a year of the status quo):

6. There will be an Ontario provincial election and a Liberal Minority will result again;

7. Rob Ford will be re-elected Toronto Mayor in this year's Ontario municipal elections;

8. In the US congressional elections, the House (and Senate) will remain under control of its respective ruling party;

9. The civil war in Syria will still be going on at the end of 2014;

10. Pittsburgh and Boston, plus Chicago and LA will be the 4 teams involved (again) in the 2014 NHL playoff semi-finals.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2014 Predictions

...
2. Canada will have a female player with a regular IM title before the end of 2014;
...
4. There will not be an eight (8) piece tablebase produced in 2014;

Regarding these two particular chess predictions, my prediction #2 is based partly on the possibility of having any immigrating female players to Canada during 2014. Prediction #4, if nothing else, seemed reasonable based on my quite limited understanding of Moore's Law, which is in regard to the average magnitude of improvements to computing power over the course of a fixed number of months historically (but which perhaps doesn't take into account any sudden leap in quantum computer development[?]).

[edit: here's a link describing Moore's Law, which is actually specific to the number of transistors on integrated circuits:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

]

[Paul Bonham]

Re: 2014 Predictions

Here's my predictions for 2014:

Chess predictions:

1. Canada will have at least one more GM before the end of 2014;

2. Canada will have a female player with a regular IM title before the end of 2014;

3. The CFC will survive 2014 in spite of being pressed to change its structure to comply with new Federal regulations;

4. There will not be an eight (8) piece tablebase produced in 2014;

5. The Ivanov controversy will be completely resolved in practice by the end of 2014.


Non-chess predictions (the coming year might be called a year of the status quo):

6. There will be an Ontario provincial election and a Liberal Minority will result again;

7. Rob Ford will be re-elected Toronto Mayor in this year's Ontario municipal elections;

8. In the US congressional elections, the House (and Senate) will remain under control of its respective ruling party;

9. The civil war in Syria will still be going on at the end of 2014;

10. Pittsburgh and Boston, plus Chicago and LA will be the 4 teams involved (again) in the 2014 NHL playoff semi-finals.

Many regular readers of this forum (especially Louis Morin) will recall that in the first half of 2013 I posted that by the end of that year I would have a website up and running that would offer chess players in Canada and elsewhere a chance to play a very exciting new version of chess. And on top of that, that even mediocre chess players would via this site have a chance at winning tournament events and occassionally earning substantial prize money.

Obviously I am late on delivery. What can I say, I'm an eternal optimist who is still learning all about starting a business from scratch. But although I'm late on delivery, that doesn't mean I'm not going to deliver. It's just that... a funny thing happened on the way to the forum (that's a very good pun, if I say so myself!).

Obviously what I'm trying to do involves bringing in outside investors. In the course of pursuing this avenue, I was very recently presented with an alternate approach to bringing this to reality. It involves something I have deep feelings for. In a word: education.

There have been great efforts throughout the civilized world in bring chess into school curriculums or extra-curriculums. And in many cases, this has been achieved. And in many if not all of those cases, the results for the students have been very positive. But chess does have its down sides in the public perception, as we all know. And so overall achievements at getting chess in schools have been mixed.

What I have maintained is that, while chess in schools decidedly does improve scholastic results and achievements for students, it isn't necessarily the best game for achieving the MOST WELL-ROUNDED improvements. Specifically, chess improves things like logical thinking, development of strategy, spatial visualization and memory. But there's some key elements missing that chess cannot teach: one example is dealing with the chaos that exists in the real world around us. There is little to no chaos in chess. And so a heavy concentration in chess education can actually do harm once the child is exposed to the fact that real life doesn't work like a chess game. One can't calculate one's way through life without encountering the unexpected. I think many serious chess players just can't grasp this, and so they have animosity towards the real world and everything that makes the real world tick (such as politicians, lawyers, authority figures, business people, even believers of certain religions, the most famous example of that being Fischer's attitude towards the Jews).

In additon, chess teaches virtually nothing about probabilities. When one is calculating chess lines in the middle of a game, one doesn't usually think "It's a 50% probability that my opponent will choose move Xyz, and a 30% probability s/he'll choose move Bcd, and a 20% probability s/he'll choose move Pqr, with 0% probability of any other choice." Instead, one usually tries to choose a move that offers some advantage AND will be resilient to all responses. Now here's the key point with that: being resilient to all possible responses is a good thing... if one just wants to survive. But if one wants to win over the long haul, one has to involve probabilities, because the effort to win involves risk. To be more specific: one sometimes has to make a move that creates exposure, just on the basis that the advantage gained is greater than the weakness created, but without being ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN of that. Failure to occassionally act on faith or intuition alone in chess turns one into a drawmaster and maybe even a LOSING drawmaster.

If you don't believe me in this, just look at the recent Anand - Carlsen WC match. Anand was choosing the openings and middlegame lines that he felt were most resilient to all responses, and while they were indeed resilient to instant tactical blows, he died the death of a thousand cuts -- exactly the type of result Carlsen specializes in. If Anand had fully realized that to win he had to take risk, the match could have gone a very different direction, and at the very least it would have been more entertaining.

Now let's take a look at another game, poker: this game does center around probabilities, and even the mathematical calculation of them. It teaches one to use probabilities to one's long-term advantage, even if in the short term you suffer losses. Poker also teaches resource management (specifically: limited poker chips). In addition, poker teaches about psychology and human nature, and the so-called "bad beat" teaches one to deal EMOTIONALLY with sudden unexpected losses. One comes to learn that maintaining an even temperament during the ups and downs of life is a key to not only surviving, but staying healthy.

Now, how about this: what if you were to combine the logical and spatial learning of chess with the probability, risk management, emotion management and psychology learning of poker? That would be a hell of a combination to be teaching young children. And the best way to do it is via one game that has ALL those skills built in.

And so now I come to my point. I have someone working with me on securing investment that is needed to take my project to launch level. She has connections to at least one investor who has ties to education and would like to see a project that gets into the school system and teaches ALL the good skills I've just gone over. I have not yet met with this potential investor, but the person I am working with can make it happen and I do believe things are going to go in a positive direction.

What that means for the future of my project is that it will likely branch into two prongs: commercial and educational. The commercial direction will be just what I've talked about here on Chesstalk in the past. The educational direction will involve getting this game into schools most likely via a sponsoring foundation, offering it free to students for the sake of learning. Is that a threat to getting regular standard chess in schools? Well, yes and no. This IS a form of chess and teaches chess skills. But it goes beyond that.

This was not a development I anticipated even just a month ago. But I am very encouraged and definitely want to go with it. I know that MIT teaches classes in poker:

http://web.mit.edu/willma/www/2013mit15s50.html

and mention of Jennifer Shahade's appearance here:

https://www.facebook.com/MitPokerClu...type=1&theater

That to me is evidence enough that poker has valuable life skills to teach even mature technical students.

And so for 2014 I'll play the optimist once again: my new game will be online and available for chess players worldwide to use for recreation and for chances at income in 2014. And supplementing this, my game will be appearing in school curriculums at least in selected localities in the U.S. (maybe Canada too, who knows?) by the fall 2014 school year.

And if I'm wrong... Kevin Pacey and I will have a few drinks together next New Year's Eve and think of what might have been if only the NHL teams in Pittsburgh, Boston, Chicago and LA had done what they were supposed to do (Kevin's prediction)... and if people with money to invest had seen the potential of an exciting new game combining chess and poker skills (my prediction).

[Gary Ruben]

Re: 2014 Predictions

Here's my predictions for 2014:

1. Canada will have at least one more GM before the end of 2014;

2. Canada will have a female player with a regular IM title before the end of 2014;

5. The Ivanov controversy will be completely resolved in practice by the end of 2014.


Non-chess predictions (the coming year might be called a year of the status quo):

6. There will be an Ontario provincial election and a Liberal Minority will result again;

7. Rob Ford will be re-elected Toronto Mayor in this year's Ontario municipal elections;

Will the GM and female regular IM be under the Canadian flag?

I take it you figure the Libs will win more ridings than the NDP. Hudak pretty much needs a majority. If the Cons parachute a candidate into this riding they will likely lose it again. The Federal cons used a candidate who lives in the riding and won.

For Ford to win isn't enough. He has to get supporters to run against incumbent councilors and win so he can control the council. The good part is several councilors are set to run against him and whoever loses gets a 4 year vacation. Maybe there will be some polling numbers out this week.

The good part is if there's a spring provincial election and Wynne loses she can probably still sign up to run for Toronto Mayor. It seems to be the only place she's concentrating on with this current ice storm damage.

My only prediction is at least one of the rating agencies will likely downgrade Ontario debt.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2014 Predictions

Hi Gary

There could be at least one new GM playing under the Canadian flag (i.e. a non- 2014-immigrant GM) before 2014 ends, IMHO. I'm assuming Aman has a shot at it, for instance. There is also something of a chance for a certain young chesstalk female personality to be a regular IM playing under our flag before 2014 ends, but otherwise a female regular IM immigrating to here is at least as likely to happen. Thus, I have stuck my neck way far out, as was written. :)

No way Hudak is getting a majority, based on recent provincial campaigns. A Liberal minority is more likely to happen (or even an NDP minority, or a Liberal-NDP coalition, if I am wrong in my initial prediction). The PCs need to get a real footing in terms of seats in the GTA before they can realistically dream of a majority IMO.

Ford will win, especially if it's a multi-way race for mayor of T.O. The only other important question is whether he's managed to organize a slate of supportive candidates for councilors, as you've alluded to.

The Ottawa conservative radio station CFRA recently had its hosts having a field day with Wynne and the Liberals handing out food baskets in T.O. No such provincial help for Ottawa's big ice storm over a decade ago. Some folks without power kept their food out on their balconies so it wouldn't spoil, back then, was one talking point.

[edit: link to report in Toronto Sun on food basket and gift card handouts:

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/01/02...ynne-look-good

]

[edit: Here's a wikipedia link for the 1998 ice storm:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_A..._Storm_of_1998

]

It's probably a race whether Wynne calls an election before she has to table a budget, or whether one of the rating agencies downgrades the Ontario debt. If Wynne is lucky she'll win that race.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2014 Predictions

It's my understanding the Ontario Liberals were off to a fast start fundraising on Monday, while their food gift baskets and food gift cards are still fresh in people's minds. A bit strange they think everyone has money to spare while they (the Ontario Liberals) are handing it out.

A long time ago my father, who's an outdoorsman, made sure to tell our family the only reason people need a refrigerator in the winter is so they don't have to walk outside the comfort of their home to fetch food they've stored or buried outside.

Decades later, after he had left the rest of us, our refrigerator broke down and it had to be replaced. In the meantime, luckily it was winter.

[edit:

http://sustainability.stackexchange....ing-the-winter

]

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2014 Predictions

Here's my predictions for 2014:
...

6. There will be an Ontario provincial election and a Liberal Minority will result again;
...
10. Pittsburgh and Boston, plus Chicago and LA will be the 4 teams involved (again) in the 2014 NHL playoff semi-finals.

Of my 10 predictions for 2014, so far prediction #6 has partly come true, while the other nine predictions have yet to come true (or not).

Prediction #10 now is well on track to coming true, with the biggest doubt in my mind being whether Boston will become sloppy against my Habs. Otherwise the first round scare that LA experienced has been the worst test so far.

Also sports related (though not one of my ten predictions here), it's good to see the Blue Jays are doing better so far than last year at this point. If memory serves, towards the end of last season I predicted they would make the playoffs this (2014) season.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2014 Predictions

I'll take stock of how my 2014 predictions are looking at this point:

...for 2014:

Chess predictions:

1. Canada will have at least one more GM before the end of 2014;

2. Canada will have a female player with a regular IM title before the end of 2014;

3. The CFC will survive 2014 in spite of being pressed to change its structure to comply with new Federal regulations;

4. There will not be an eight (8) piece tablebase produced in 2014;

5. The Ivanov controversy will be completely resolved in practice by the end of 2014.

Predictions 3-5 are looking like about to come true handily enough, but these were the safe ones.

Non-chess predictions (the coming year might be called a year of the status quo):

6. There will be an Ontario provincial election and a Liberal Minority will result again;

7. Rob Ford will be re-elected Toronto Mayor in this year's Ontario municipal elections;

8. In the US congressional elections, the House (and Senate) will remain under control of its respective ruling party;

9. The civil war in Syria will still be going on at the end of 2014;

10. Pittsburgh and Boston, plus Chicago and LA will be the 4 teams involved (again) in the 2014 NHL playoff semi-finals.

Prediction #8 may still come true tonight, or control of the Senate will be decided in January by one or more runoffs in still undecided but decisive Senate race(s) as far as overall control goes (in which case it is still controlled by the Dems for the rest of 2014). I had forgotten that the House was not to have elections in such a year, so no danger of it switching hands (i.e. to the Dems). [edit: oops, CNN hadn't mentioned the House much today that I noticed. It just announced that the Republicans are in fact going to keep control of it in 2014.]

Prediction #9 looks like it will come to pass.

Now for the predictions that failed already (all non-chess predictions):

#6. The Liberals won the Ontario election that was held (as predicted), alright, but the other parties and their leaders blew things so badly that the Libs got a majority.

#7. Rob Ford didn't get re-elected as Toronto Mayor, of necessity due to dropping out because of his sudden health crisis.

#10. Pittsburgh, Boston, Chicago and LA at least all made it to the quarter finals of the 2014 NHL playoffs, but Boston was upset by Montreal in a long series, and, if memory serves, Pittsburgh blew a big series lead.