If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Policy / Politique
The fee for tournament organizers advertising on ChessTalk is $20/event or $100/yearly unlimited for the year.
Les frais d'inscription des organisateurs de tournoi sur ChessTalk sont de 20 $/événement ou de 100 $/année illimitée.
You can etransfer to Henry Lam at chesstalkforum at gmail dot com
Transfér à Henry Lam à chesstalkforum@gmail.com
Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
General Guidelines
---- Nous avons besoin d'un traduction français!
Some Basics
1. Under Board "Frequently Asked Questions" (FAQs) there are 3 sections dealing with General Forum Usage, User Profile Features, and Reading and Posting Messages. These deal with everything from Avatars to Your Notifications. Most general technical questions are covered there. Here is a link to the FAQs. https://forum.chesstalk.com/help
2. Consider using the SEARCH button if you are looking for information. You may find your question has already been answered in a previous thread.
3. If you've looked for an answer to a question, and not found one, then you should consider asking your question in a new thread. For example, there have already been questions and discussion regarding: how to do chess diagrams (FENs); crosstables that line up properly; and the numerous little “glitches” that every new site will have.
4. Read pinned or sticky threads, like this one, if they look important. This applies especially to newcomers.
5. Read the thread you're posting in before you post. There are a variety of ways to look at a thread. These are covered under “Display Modes”.
6. Thread titles: please provide some details in your thread title. This is useful for a number of reasons. It helps ChessTalk members to quickly skim the threads. It prevents duplication of threads. And so on.
7. Unnecessary thread proliferation (e.g., deliberately creating a new thread that duplicates existing discussion) is discouraged. Look to see if a thread on your topic may have already been started and, if so, consider adding your contribution to the pre-existing thread. However, starting new threads to explore side-issues that are not relevant to the original subject is strongly encouraged. A single thread on the Canadian Open, with hundreds of posts on multiple sub-topics, is no better than a dozen threads on the Open covering only a few topics. Use your good judgment when starting a new thread.
8. If and/or when sub-forums are created, please make sure to create threads in the proper place.
Debate
9. Give an opinion and back it up with a reason. Throwaway comments such as "Game X pwnz because my friend and I think so!" could be considered pointless at best, and inflammatory at worst.
10. Try to give your own opinions, not simply those copied and pasted from reviews or opinions of your friends.
Unacceptable behavior and warnings
11. In registering here at ChessTalk please note that the same or similar rules apply here as applied at the previous Boardhost message board. In particular, the following content is not permitted to appear in any messages:
* Racism
* Hatred
* Harassment
* Adult content
* Obscene material
* Nudity or pornography
* Material that infringes intellectual property or other proprietary rights of any party
* Material the posting of which is tortious or violates a contractual or fiduciary obligation you or we owe to another party
* Piracy, hacking, viruses, worms, or warez
* Spam
* Any illegal content
* unapproved Commercial banner advertisements or revenue-generating links
* Any link to or any images from a site containing any material outlined in these restrictions
* Any material deemed offensive or inappropriate by the Board staff
12. Users are welcome to challenge other points of view and opinions, but should do so respectfully. Personal attacks on others will not be tolerated. Posts and threads with unacceptable content can be closed or deleted altogether. Furthermore, a range of sanctions are possible - from a simple warning to a temporary or even a permanent banning from ChessTalk.
Helping to Moderate
13. 'Report' links (an exclamation mark inside a triangle) can be found in many places throughout the board. These links allow users to alert the board staff to anything which is offensive, objectionable or illegal. Please consider using this feature if the need arises.
Advice for free
14. You should exercise the same caution with Private Messages as you would with any public posting.
It was obvious for a long time that Magnus Carlsen was destined to play a match for the world championship. It is equally obvious (at least to me) that the same destiny awaits Fabiano Caruana.
But when? The field in the candidates in 2016 should be very strong.
That 7 in a row could easily be a "one off".
Of course 7 wins in a row doesn't happen often. But in the last three years, Caruana increased his rating from 2700 to well over 2800. He's now second on the rating list, with a 19 points advance on #3. He didn't achieve that in 7 games.
He's less experienced compared to the rest of the top 5-10, but he's got to be one of the favorites at this point.
Playing your cards fairly close to the vest......Caruana may be the 2nd favourite publicly.....but in a battle between he and Magnus in 2016, who is your pick for winner?
Playing your cards fairly close to the vest......Caruana may be the 2nd favourite publicly.....but in a battle between he and Magnus in 2016, who is your pick for winner?
Bob A
I'll 2nd Gary Ruben's sentiments, Bob, and say I doubt he'll face Carslen in 2016. Caruana may well be the favourite in the Candidates tournament but he's probably still no better than a 1/3 to 1/4 shot to win the event. My natural corollary therein is that I certainly wouldn't put any money on him now at the current odds of 5 to 1, given he'd still have less than a 1/2 chance of upsetting Carlsen. I wouldn't even begin to consider same until I saw at least 8 to 1 (:
I'll 2nd Gary Ruben's sentiments, Bob, and say I doubt he'll face Carslen in 2016. Caruana may well be the favourite in the Candidates tournament but he's probably still no better than a 1/3 to 1/4 shot to win the event. My natural corollary therein is that I certainly wouldn't put any money on him now at the current odds of 5 to 1, given he'd still have less than a 1/2 chance of upsetting Carlsen. I wouldn't even begin to consider same until I saw at least 8 to 1 (:
The initial question was "who will challenge Magnus in 2016". The safest bet there is still Caruana. As you said, he's probably at 1/4-1/3 in an event with 8 guys. He's probably gonna be the favorite to qualify.
I don't really gamble, but in that case, I'd still give a nod to Aronian because he's got more experience. With Caruana having a 15-20 ratings points advantage (irrelevant) the bookmakers might be inclined to give you interesting odds for Aronian.
And it's way too early to make any prediction about the outcome of an eventual match between Carlsen and the challenger. I know some people like that, but it's just not my thing.
I would bet on Caruana at even odds to defeat Carlsen if they meet in the WC 2016. My reasoning: Caruana doesn't seem afraid of Carlsen and Caruana doesn't seem like the sort of guy who will have side jobs modeling or introducing Apps for the whatever. I think of it as Capablanca v Alekhine for the 21st century.
Top three to challenge Carlsen in 2016 (in order):
Caruana, Kramnik, Grischuk
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
Top three to challenge Carlsen in 2016 (in order):
Caruana, Kramnik, Grischuk
I'll decide if I think Anand belongs in the top three when I see his results the next couple of years. Possibly I'll still think he's the best of the rest or maybe someone else. In a way it's like goal tenders in hockey. A hot streak and some luck can even up a lot of other short comings.
I'm getting tired of seeing Anand - Carlsen matches so kind of hope it's someone else next time but who knows.
One think I know for sure. I would never, ever go all in on the black side of the Spanish Berlin Defence in game 11 out of 12 in a big match. Would you, Tom?
I would bet on Caruana at even odds to defeat Carlsen if they meet in the WC 2016. My reasoning: Caruana doesn't seem afraid of Carlsen and Caruana doesn't seem like the sort of guy who will have side jobs modeling or introducing Apps for the whatever. I think of it as Capablanca v Alekhine for the 21st century.
Top three to challenge Carlsen in 2016 (in order):
Caruana, Kramnik, Grischuk
Very good point.
The only counterpoint is that although Magnus is supremely talented, he still looks like a guy who's willing to work very hard, at least over the board.
But I agree that, at this point, the only realistic scenario for him losing a match is if he faces a more focused, well prepared and motivated opponent. And that would be Caruana.
There's a very real possibility that Aronian, and especially Kramnik, fail to qualify for the Candidates. Neither are playing in the Grand Prix so can't possibly take one of those 2 spots. There are, of course, 2 more spots arising from the World Cup in Baku next September/October but a 128 player knock-out format is very much a crap shoot. Aronian certainly has some chances for the 2 spots from top rating, especially if players above him qualify in another manner, but Kramnik has very little chance via that avenue. I'd be very surprised to see both make the Candidates and wouldn't be all that surprised if neither qualified.
After getting crushed by Nakamura in R1 of todays Blitz tournament, Caruana has now fallen to #60 on the live Blitz ratings, by far the lowest rated Blitz player playing in London today. Kramnik is the 2nd lowest rated with a #33 ranking, just behind Michael Adams (#32). Naka is #2, Anand #7, and Giri #11.
Tweet
Comment