A safe prediction

[Vlad Dobrich]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

That was clearly a typo - now corrected.

[Jack Maguire]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

You also didn't see Topolov maintaining his 2800 rating - and instead he shot up to 2816 with Anand.
It seems neither you nor I are qualified to judge what these guys can or cannot do! :)

Saying I "didn't see Topalov maintaining his 2800 rating" is a bit of a stretch from my "I guess I'm now hoping Topalov will prove to be your Achilles heel (:", Vlad. While I likely would have leaned towards betting against him maintaining his 2800 status (and seemingly have lost that bet!), the bet was certainly not Topalov centric. While you're clearly in your best position since the commencement of the bet, I don't think you can make a strong case for now having a 3/4 chance of winning (the figure needed to give me a negative $10 equity). Do you really think Giri is much better than even money to attain 2800 status in 2015 AND all 4 (I'll concede Carlsen!) of your 2800 club keep their status? I'd say at best that's still a coin flip and your only possible edge might be the slight (say 5 to 10%) chance that So makes a big ratings push.

[Vlad Dobrich]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

Saying I "didn't see Topalov maintaining his 2800 rating" is a bit of a stretch from my "I guess I'm now hoping Topalov will prove to be your Achilles heel (:", Vlad. While I likely would have leaned towards betting against him maintaining his 2800 status (and seemingly have lost that bet!), the bet was certainly not Topalov centric. While you're clearly in your best position since the commencement of the bet, I don't think you can make a strong case for now having a 3/4 chance of winning (the figure needed to give me a negative $10 equity). Do you really think Giri is much better than even money to attain 2800 status in 2015 AND all 4 (I'll concede Carlsen!) of your 2800 club keep their status? I'd say at best that's still a coin flip and your only possible edge might be the slight (say 5 to 10%) chance that So makes a big ratings push.

I still like my bet. And if you think it is still very close, I will offer an additional bet of my $25 to your $20 on the aforesaid outcome.

[Jack Maguire]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

I still like my bet. And if you think it is still very close, I will offer an additional bet of my $25 to your $20 on the aforesaid outcome.

You're saying you have a 75% chance of winning (which would warrant 3 to 1 odds), Vlad, and yet only want to offer me 5 to 4 odds ):

I'd need 3 to 2 odds (i.e. $30 to $20) to increase our extant $20 bet to $40 (:

[Vlad Dobrich]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

........ and you're saying it's a very close call. So why would I offer to bet at the true odds? That would be gambling. And I try to not gamble and only bet when I have the edge. :)

[Jack Maguire]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

November ratings are now out, Vlad, and I'm sure you'll agree that you're in a serious spot of trouble re your "safe prediction" (especially since Anand has lost his 2800 status unless he wins his final Biel game tomorrow). Looking at scheduled November tournaments, I'm not even sure you now have any realistic chance of winning our modest bet (:

https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml?list=men

[Jack Maguire]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

It's official now, Vlad. The clock strikes twelve (:

https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml?list=men

[Vlad Dobrich]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

Congratulations. Jack,
You've won the bet! Who knew that so many of the top players would have a melt down. Even Carlsen shed 30 points.
You (or a person you designate) can collect your $20 at the Madison Pub this Wednesday or at the Rapid on Saturday.
Also, please accept now 500 P$ (pretend dollars) to use as wagering against the odds posted on the betting line which you frequently quote. Readers here on ChessTalk will be watching with greater interest to see how you can do with it. Can you double up to 1000 P$ - or lose it all. If the posted odds are as flawed as you frequently aver you should have little trouble in doubling up - and if you do, I expect people will want to send you real cash to manage as a gaming fund where you will make them a profit (minus a suitable % fee).

[Jack Maguire]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

Carlsen shedding points should have been to your advantage, Vlad. But both Caruana and Grischuk free-falling in the manner they did certainly was not! Had I known Topalov was going to maintain his 2800 status, I probably wouldn't even have made the bet. This was a difficult bet to handicap and I'm still not sure it was a 'good' bet. Probably little more than the proverbial 'coin flip' either way.

I'm not sure I'm going to make the Rapid on Saturday, but you can certainly give the money to my son, Zehn, in my absence.

And I'm going to pass on those "pretend dollars" you suggest. I'm going to take some very real dollars, probably closer to $2,000 and see what kind of 'income' I can generate in the world of chess betting (:

[Vlad Dobrich]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

Carlsen shedding points should have been to your advantage, Vlad. But both Caruana and Grischuk free-falling in the manner they did certainly was not! Had I known Topalov was going to maintain his 2800 status, I probably wouldn't even have made the bet. This was a difficult bet to handicap and I'm still not sure it was a 'good' bet. Probably little more than the proverbial 'coin flip' either way.

I'm not sure I'm going to make the Rapid on Saturday, but you can certainly give the money to my son, Zehn, in my absence.

And I'm going to pass on those "pretend dollars" you suggest. I'm going to take some very real dollars, probably closer to $2,000 and see what kind of 'income' I can generate in the world of chess betting (:

Great Jack! Good luck with the chess betting - I imagine you'd get an avid following on ChessTalk if you care to post a running tally on your bets and how you're doing. Best of luck!

[Mathieu Cloutier]

Re: Re : A safe prediction

There won't be 6 guys over 2800 at the end of the year, obviously. But still, it came pretty close. The average for the top 6 or 7 players is above 2800 and we've got easily 7 or 8 guys who are either pretty close to 2800, or were recently above 2800.

It's really just a matter of time. Maybe it will happen next March, maybe in August. But it is inevitable.

[Wayne Komer]

A safe prediction

A safe prediction

January 31, 2017

There are five players with live ratings over 2800 today, January 31, 2017:

1. Carlsen 2838.3
2. So 2822.1
3. Caruana 2818.4
4. Kramnik 2811.0
5. MVL 2801.1

They are being chased by:

6. Nakamura 2790.4
7. Anand 2786.0
8. Aronian 2784.5
9. Karjakin 2783.4
10. Giri 2768.8

Caruana’s live rating may change as a result of a game still being played against Gopal at Gibraltar.

[Wayne Komer]

Re: A safe prediction

A safe prediction

September 10, 2017

As a result of play in the Chess World Cup 2017, many of the top players have been losing Elo points to lower-rated players.

The live ratings for today show only one player over 2800 – Magnus Carlsen

The Top Ten

1. Carlsen 2826.0
2. Aronian 2798.6
3. MVL 2796.2
4. Caruana 2793.8
5. Kramnik 2793.8
6. Mamedyarov 2791.4
7. So 2787.4
8. Grischuk 2784.8
9. Anand 2762.8
10. Nakamura 2773.6

http://www.2700chess.com

[Victor Plotkin]

Re: A safe prediction

A very rare situation that only one player is above 2800. I don't remember any other case like this in the last 5 years.

Among top-20 players 2 don't play in the World Cup (Topalov, Dominguez). So, only 1 out of 18 players (Svidler) gains rating. 17/18 players lose some points, including players who still in the World Cup. I can find 2 possible explanations to this anomally.

1. Players don't care much about rating in this tournament, they just want to advance to the next round. For example, in match 2800 player against 2500, the favorite wins the first game and doesn't try to get second win and accepts a draw. Total score is 1.5-0.5, top player advances to the next round, but loses around 2 rating points in these 2 games.

2. Many 2800 players play almost only in strong round-robin tournaments and don't play too often against 2600-2700 players. Is 2800 player able to score 64% against 2700 or 76% against 2600 just to maintain his rating? Not sure.

[Mathieu Cloutier]

Re: A safe prediction

A very rare situation that only one player is above 2800. I don't remember any other case like this in the last 5 years.

Among top-20 players 2 don't play in the World Cup (Topalov, Dominguez). So, only 1 out of 18 players (Svidler) gains rating. 17/18 players lose some points, including players who still in the World Cup. I can find 2 possible explanations to this anomally.

1. Players don't care much about rating in this tournament, they just want to advance to the next round. For example, in match 2800 player against 2500, the favorite wins the first game and doesn't try to get second win and accepts a draw. Total score is 1.5-0.5, top player advances to the next round, but loses around 2 rating points in these 2 games.

2. Many 2800 players play almost only in strong round-robin tournaments and don't play too often against 2600-2700 players. Is 2800 player able to score 64% against 2700 or 76% against 2600 just to maintain his rating? Not sure.

My educated guess is that the answer is a little bit of both. :p