GM Putin 's Golden Trap

[Nigel Hanrahan]

We live in interesting times

I'm reading the US is thinking of normalizing relations with Cuba and ending the embargo so possibly there are some wide ranging talks going on between the U.S. and Russia.

Not only US-Cuban relations, poisoned by the decades of the embargo/blockade, but also European relations with Palestine, as they affect an important US client state (Israel) involving recognition of Palestine, removal of Hamas from the terrorist organization list, and so on. This is also significant for US foreign policy. The Empire may not be crumbling, but things are changing that once were considered permanent.

Artificially driving down the price of oil to hurt Russia is having some effect on Western Canada and their oil based economy.

There are many factors contributing to the fall in the price of oil. Someone else (Vlad D.) has pointed out that a low price makes fracking, something that the US producers and hedge fund managers have promoted, too expensive just as tar sands oil is too expensive with current prices. Sir Richard Branson has pointed out that the lower price for a barrel of oil undermines the global clean energy industry - something the Saudis have done at least once before. The precipitous drop of the Canadian dollar just shows how much a one-trick pony petro-state Canada has become under the Harper regime. Loss of royalties and taxes may mean that the upcoming Canadian election is going to narrow the options available to buy votes by the politicians. Interesting times.

ETA: in relation to the Russian currency and its precipitous drop, I really think that within 6 months to a year (and probably much sooner), the Russians will develop their own alternative to the SWIFT payment system, clean house of all the Atlantic Integrationists (especially in the Central Bank), get the BRICS Development Bank moving along, perhaps stop the free-floating Ruble, and move towards de-coupling their currency from the US dollar.

The last item will really see the s*it hit the fan. The Russians won't do this without China, and the bear and tiger, working together, will make rather short work of a certain bird of prey.

Interesting times.

[Nigel Hanrahan]

sabre-rattling in Ottawa and a suggestion as to why

I'm uncomfortable with our beloved Prime Minister who insists on mouthing off as though Canada is a world-class military/nuclear power.

It's also pretty clear that the PM is doing this because he probably expects a political dividend in doing so [if only as a favored poodle]. A few short years ago he was singing a completely different tune ...

In January 2010, according to WikiLeaks, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper told NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen that the alliance had no role to play in the Arctic because "there is no likelihood of Arctic states going to war." Harper also said that "Canada has a good working relationship with Russia with respect to the Arctic, and a NATO presence could backfire by exacerbating tensions."

Nine months later, Putin told an international conference: "It is well known that if you stand alone, you cannot survive in the Arctic. Nature alone, in this case, demands that people, nations and states help each other."

Canada and Russia as friends? Thank goodness for Julian Assange and Wikileaks.

Canada's bellicose rhetoric in relation to the Ukrainian civil war could also be seen as an attempt to win the votes of Canadians of Ukrainian ethnicity ... of which there are a million.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: GM Putin 's Golden Trap

I think this drop in oil price is more of a message from oil producers in the middle east trying to show the uppity competitors that they are still in charge. They can't let oil rise much above $70 per barrel without encouraging the competitors to flood the market.

Of course, you realize many companies in Canada have their production currently hedged. They still get $90. plus in many cases. The hedges will likely start running out in 2015 and I doubt they will bother with new hedges at the current prices.

The likely scenario, in my opinion, will be that oil will be shut in at the current prices. Many small companies could go out of business with the banks holding debt. Like in the 1980's home prices in Alberta and elsewhere COULD, not necessarily would, drop to the point people would walk away from them. What effect do you think the double defaults would have on the financial system here in Canada?

In my mind, the question is currently not a $70. a barrel price for oil. It's how far the price of oil will fall before it hits bottom, if it hasn't already. I'm not going to give my opinion on that.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: sabre-rattling in Ottawa and a suggestion as to why

Canada and Russia as friends? Thank goodness for Julian Assange and Wikileaks.

Before you start discussing international politics you should really learn nations don't have friends. They have interests.

Anyone used to reading political commentary would pick out your error because it sticks out like a sore errrr...... thumb. ;)

[Nigel Hanrahan]

yeah, friendly relations actually exist in the world

Before you start discussing international politics you should really learn nations don't have friends. They have interests.

That's a good guide but not strictly true. Explain the good relations that exist between Serbia and Russia, for example, without reference to the friendship formed over centuries between the people of those two countries. Ditto for Canada and the USA.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: yeah, friendly relations actually exist in the world

.... without reference to the friendship formed over centuries between the people of those two countries. Ditto for Canada and the USA.

I have no idea how old you are but suspect you are young. With the US going into Vietnam, we declined and hung them out to lose. Then we declined to join their embargo of Cuba.

We looked after our INTERESTS. Friendship had and has nothing to do with it.

[Nigel Hanrahan]

Re: yeah, friendly relations actually exist in the world

I have no idea how old you are but suspect you are young.

This is an argument for what?

With the US going into Vietnam, we declined and hung them out to lose.

Actually, Canadian military production got an enormous shot in the arm with the Viet Nam War. However, just as openly supporting the US didn't work in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Canadian firms have made buckets of money selling weapons to our American "friends" even if the government took a different "official" position, just as lots of Canadian servicemen have got plenty of experience participating in (combat) operations when Canada is "not involved". General Walter Natynczyk was even Deputy Commanding General during "Operation Iraqi Freedom" (i.e., the US-run invasion of Iraq). I'd say that was "friendly", wouldn't you?

Canadian duplicity in Iraq War.

Then we declined to join their embargo of Cuba.

Canada recently was thanked by the President of Cuba for helping to arrange the recent rapproachment between the USA and Cuba. That's what friends do, no?

We looked after our INTERESTS. Friendship had and has nothing to do with it.

Yeah, you keep repeating that but your "evidence" is disappointing.

I will refrain from asking how old you are. I'm sure it's irrelevant.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: yeah, friendly relations actually exist in the world

This is an argument for what?

.

Not much point of discussing international politics with youngsters who don't understand the difference between national interests and passing friendships between nations based on the leaders of the day.

[Nigel Hanrahan]

black and white or shades of grey?

Not much point of discussing international politics with youngsters who don't understand the difference between national interests and passing friendships between nations based on the leaders of the day.

You're making an absolute of something that isn't; e.g., even among their foreign policy advisors, governments often have a range of views of what constitutes "their best interests", over which there is sometimes sharp debate, etc.. Furthermore, the duplicitous way that Canadian foreign policy was carried out in relation to the invasion of Iraq, for example, shows the importance for the government of spreading the self-delusion of non-involvement of Canada in that illegal war, while quietly providing enormous assistance in logistics, leadership, support, etc.. They wanted their cake and to eat it as well; by and large, I might add, they succeeded. If however, the mass media had done their job, then the government of the day would have been exposed [as war criminals] and public debate would surely have had a larger effect on public policy.

None of this, of course, happened. But it could have.

In the black and white world of absolutes, such shades of grey get obliterated. All of this, as well, begs the question of whose interests is reflected in foreign policy. Canadian society is not monolithic in its opinions.