2015 Predictions

[Kevin Pacey]

Bearing in mind IANAP (I am not a prophet), here's my predictions for 2015:

Chess predictions:

1. Canada will have at least one 2015 WYCC world champion;

2. The CFC will have a different President after the 2015 AGM than the current one;

3. The total membership of the CFC will be down when the 2015 annual stats are provided on the CFC website;

4. FIDE will make at least one change to their official rules of chess;

5. China will have a player in the world's top ten FIDE rated players at the end of 2015.


Non-chess predictions:

6. There will be a federal election called before the Mike Duffy trial;

7. The federal Liberals will have a majority government after the 2015 election;

8. The price of oil will be back up over $100 US a barrel at the end of 2015;

9. There will be a major correction to the New York Stock Exchange (DOW) in 2015;

10. The Syrian civil war will still be going at the end of 2015.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: 2015 Predictions

Were you 50% or better for 2014?

By the way, a major correction in the DOW could be upward or downward? Usually folks refer to downward but you could claim victory on that one if it moved in either direction.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2015 Predictions

The year 2014 still has a few days left. Right now I'd be 50%, if I recall right.

I meant that the correction would be downward (the usual sense), but why not hedge my bets, I suppose. :)

[Mathieu Cloutier]

Re: 2015 Predictions

I only have one prediction:

I will lose a bunch of chess games. Mistakes will be made.

[Fred Harvey]

Re: 2015 Predictions

I only have one prediction:

I will lose a bunch of chess games. Mistakes will be made.

And my prediction is that Mathieu's batting average will be better than Kevin's.......

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2015 Predictions

Were you 50% or better for 2014?
...

Correction to my previous post above: it looks like I'll be four for ten on my 2014 predictions if nothing changes in 10 days:

Here's my predictions for 2014:
Chess predictions:
1. Canada will have at least one more GM before the end of 2014;
2. Canada will have a female player with a regular IM title before the end of 2014;
3. The CFC will survive 2014 in spite of being pressed to change its structure to comply with new Federal regulations;
4. There will not be an eight (8) piece tablebase produced in 2014;
5. The Ivanov controversy will be completely resolved in practice by the end of 2014.
Non-chess predictions (the coming year might be called a year of the status quo):
6. There will be an Ontario provincial election and a Liberal Minority will result again;
7. Rob Ford will be re-elected Toronto Mayor in this year's Ontario municipal elections;
8. In the US congressional elections, the House (and Senate) will remain under control of its respective ruling party;
9. The civil war in Syria will still be going on at the end of 2014;
10. Pittsburgh and Boston, plus Chicago and LA will be the 4 teams involved (again) in the 2014 NHL playoff semi-finals.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: 2015 Predictions

Correction to my previous post above: it looks like I'll be four for ten on my 2014 predictions if nothing changes in 10 days:

It can only get better.

[Fred Harvey]

Re: 2015 Predictions

It can only get better.

I wouldn't predict that......

[Gary Ruben]

Re: 2015 Predictions

I wouldn't predict that......

I'm not predicting it. I'm offering encouragement. ;)

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2015 Predictions

Bearing in mind IANAP (I am not a prophet), here's my predictions for 2015:
Chess predictions:
1. Canada will have at least one 2015 WYCC world champion;
2. The CFC will have a different President after the 2015 AGM than the current one;
3. The total membership of the CFC will be down when the 2015 annual stats are provided on the CFC website;
4. FIDE will make at least one change to their official rules of chess;
5. China will have a player in the world's top ten FIDE rated players at the end of 2015.
Non-chess predictions:
6. There will be a federal election called before the Mike Duffy trial;
7. The federal Liberals will have a majority government after the 2015 election;
8. The price of oil will be back up over $100 US a barrel at the end of 2015;
9. There will be a major correction to the New York Stock Exchange (DOW) in 2015;
10. The Syrian civil war will still be going at the end of 2015.

For these predictions I can give rationales for, if not obvious:
1. Ottawa's Q.Z. could be a world champ again at the 2015 WYCC, on the girl's side. Toronto's N.V. could do extremely well if he aims to make it to the 2015 WYCC;
2. Vlad could get tired of being CFC Prez, or the Governors (properly known as Voting Members, now) might simply decide to try their luck with someone else, say if my prediction #3 comes true;
3. There has been no sort of CFC membership drive or significant related effort so far in 2014-15 as far as I am aware - especially with a view to attracting more adult (or even Senior) members;
4. FIDE wrote up a new version of the Laws of Chess only last year, but I suspect some unanticipated over-the-board situations are bound to occur which will require further modifications - either that or FIDE will make changes 'because they can';
5. Last time I looked China had at least a handful of players in the top 50 of FIDE's top rated players;
7. The biggest reason the federal Liberals will get a majority is that charisma is everything in politics at least 99% of the time. Plus, Trudeau has the stoner vote pretty much sowed up (not to mention the youth vote);
8. I'm often a conspiracy guy. The Saudis are not decreasing their oil production so far, in order to raise the price of oil back up, for any of the following reasons:
8A) To try to put every small producer in the US out of business by driving down the price of oil temporarily;
8B) To put economic pressure on their geopolitical adversaries (Iran and Russia);
8C) The US asked the Saudis not to decrease production, to put economic pressure on a mutual geopolitical adversary (Russia).
Whatever the reason, I'm guessing things will change against it well before 2015 is over;
9. A major stock market correction is due about 2015, if nothing else;
10. The current government of Syria has powerful allies (e.g. Russia).

[Gary Ruben]

Re: 2015 Predictions

9. A major stock market correction is due about 2015, if nothing else;

Define "major". How low does the DOW have to drop for you to claim victory on this one.

Are you talking 14,000, 10,000, or something lower or in between?

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2015 Predictions

Here's one link describing corrections. I actually had in mind major correction, pretty much as in bear market (20+% correction occurs). Given the DOW started the year at [edit:17,800+], I'm talking something below 14,500.

https://content.sharefc.com/sites/cl...339&topic=6064

[Gary Ruben]

Re: 2015 Predictions

Here's one link describing corrections. I actually had in mind major correction, pretty much as in bear market (20+% correction occurs). Given the DOW started the year at [edit:17,800+], I'm talking something below 14,500.

Noted. You figure the DOW 30 companies will lose a total of around $500. or more. I'm not arguing your prediction because I haven't done any work on my model, but am simply trying to understand it.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2015 Predictions

One thing (albeit not one that has to be taken into account normally when thinking about whether a market is due for a major correction, afaik) is last year's big drop in the price of oil, which is being blamed for today's drop in the DOW. This low price for oil may continue and be the cause of a major correction of the DOW in 2015 almost all by itself. That is, before the Saudis decide to change whatever their game plan is, and decrease their oil production, driving the price of oil back up. As alluded to, I am guessing the Saudis will elect to decrease their oil production well before 2015 is over, as they are experiencing the pain themselves when they play whatever their game plan is, whether or not they get the desired effect from doing so.

I must admit to having little grounding in economics, but I have listened to the odd economic prediction for this year now and then, well before I made my 2015 predictions (so my memory is no longer detailed in any way). In any case, my brother is confident there is a major correction coming, and he follows economics much more than I do. On the other hand, I am going against the US political cycle, in which the year before a presidential election is normally very bullish historically. I read that in a book I got as a light-hearted gift for Xmas, namely a 2015 horoscope yearbook...

[Gary Ruben]

Re: 2015 Predictions

The reasons don't really matter. The prediction will either be right or wrong.