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Anyone who qualifies via the World Cup or the Grand Prix of course gets removed from the equation. At the moment, Caruana is primed to qualify via the Grand Prix and if that in fact happens then Grischuk and Topalov would currently get the 2 spots based on rating. But we're only at the quarter pole so these numbers can definitely change rather dramatically in the 9 months to come.
Topalov was the only player who didn't see a rating change in April (since he again didn't play a single rated game) and the new average 2015 ratings are as follows:
I have removed Caruana and Nakamura from the equation since they now have both qualified via the 2 Grand Prix spots. The race for the 2 Candidates spots via average 2015 rating is thus down to a field of 6, namely:
Topalov is pretty much now a lock for one of the two Candidates spots via average 2015 rating which should ensure that the 4 highest rated players not named Carlsen, to wit, Anand, Topalov, Nakamura, and Caurana will make up half the 2016 Candidates field. The 2nd ratings spot is still very much up for grabs with 5 more months to go.
Topalov is pretty much now a lock for one of the two Candidates spots via average 2015 rating which should ensure that the 4 highest rated players not named Carlsen, to wit, Anand, Topalov, Nakamura, and Caurana will make up half the 2016 Candidates field. The 2nd ratings spot is still very much up for grabs with 5 more months to go.
September ratings are now out and it's rather clear at the 3/4 pole that Topalov has secured one of the Candidates spots via rating and the 2nd spot is essentially a two horse race between Giri and Grischuk. For the record the average nine month ratings for the six cited supra are:
Given Topalov and Giri have essentially already won the 2 rating spots, I'm no longer going to update the numbers supra. Moreover, Wikipedia provides a running count, as well as providing a list of the 19 players eligible for the 8th and final 'wild card' Candidates spot. Too bad the wild card didn't go to the highest rated player at year end in which case we'd have a great 3-way race between Levon Aronian, Ding Liren, and Vladimir Kramnik (:
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