World Cup Baku 2015

**Wayne Komer** · Tuesday, 18th August, 2015, 11:39 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

World Cup Baku 2015

Chess by the Numbers has already worked out the odds of winning

https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/w...015-world-cup/

Seed Player Rating Odds REACHING FINALS Odds of WINNING

1 Veselin Topalov (BUL) 2816 26.5% 16.4%
2 Hikaru Nakamura (USA) 2814 24.9% 15.5%
3 Fabiano Caruana (USA) 2808 22.2% 13.4%
4 Anish Giri (NED) 2793 17.1% 9.3%
5 Wesley So (USA) 2779 12.1% 6.0%
6 Vladimir Kramnik (RUS) 2777 10.8% 5.4%
7 Alexander Grisch.(RUS) 2771 9.1% 4.4%
8 Ding Liren (CHN) 2770 8.9% 4.2%
9 Levon Aronian (ARM) 2765 7.6% 3.4%
10 Dmitry Jakovenko (RUS) 2759 6.2% 2.8%

**Wayne Komer** · Wednesday, 19th August, 2015, 12:40 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

World Cup Baku 2015

From St. Louis Public Radio:

July 30, 2015

Every two years FIDE, the International Chess Federation, holds a World Chess Championship. One of the qualifying events to earn a seat at the tournament is the World Cup. The World Cup is different than most chess tournaments because it is a 128 player knockout event. Most chess competitions are Swiss-system or round-robin (all-play-all) events. However, the World Cup is similar to the NCAA March Madness as half the players are eliminated every round. The tournament takes a few weeks compared to most Grandmaster level events taking a mere 9-13 days.

The 2015 World Cup will be held Sept. 10-Oct. 4 in Baku, Azerbaijan. The top two finishers will be automatically seeded into the 2016 Candidates Tournament. This tournament will then determine who will challenge World Chess Champion, Magnus Carlsen, at the end of 2016 for the title of World Champion.

There are two very interesting things about this iteration of the World Cup. First, there are several Americans playing, with two of those Americans, Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura, having already qualified for the Candidates Tournament next year. So, why are they playing in the World Cup if they already qualified? The cash prizes are quite high, with the winner getting $120,000 and the runner-up receiving $80,000. Both Hikaru and Fabiano will be flying to Baku from St. Louis, where they will be participating in the Sinquefield Cup from Aug. 22-Sept. 3. The third American with good odds is Wesley So, ranked 8th in the world. So, Caruana and Nakamura are expected to strengthen the United States’ chances to go for gold in the 2016 Olympiad and 2017 World Team Championship.

Even more startling news is that Levon Aronian, an Armenian, top 10 in the world, will be playing in Baku as well. Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are on a decline and Aronian has never played chess in Baku. Assurances from the president of Azerbaijan made it possible for Aronian to play for the World Title. Occasionally in the world of chess, as with other sports, some athletes will not travel or are not allowed to visit other countries, but rarely has this affected the highest chess title.

The 2015 World Cup will be one of the few events ever held with more than 100 grandmasters participating. The United States will have nine players participating including the world’s youngest GM, Sam Sevian. Sam also has Armenian roots, so it will be a great coup for the FIDE motto, “Gens una sumus” (Latin for ‘We are one people’). It is reassuring to see politically disputing countries still playing chess and battling it out on the chessboard.

Other American participating are grandmasters Ray Robson (a student at Webster University), Gata Kamsky, Alex Onischuk, Sam Shankland and Var Akobian. All of the American grandmasters have visited St. Louis on several occasions.

Ben Finegold

**David Ottosen** · Thursday, 20th August, 2015, 08:40 AM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

Pairings: http://www.fide.com/images/stories/N...p_Pairings.pdf

Ding-Krnan

Kasimdzanov-Kovalyov

**Tom O'Donnell** · Thursday, 20th August, 2015, 10:13 AM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

Originally posted by David Ottosen View Post

Pairings: http://www.fide.com/images/stories/N...p_Pairings.pdf

Ding-Krnan

Kasimdzanov-Kovalyov

I think in a match format Kovalyov has decent chances to advance.

**Wayne Komer** · Saturday, 22nd August, 2015, 11:54 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

World Cup Baku 2015

August 22, 2015

The bracket has now been published with some changes. Anton Kovalyov meets Rustam Kasimdzhanov in the first round and Tomas Kman plays Ding Liren.

The colours in game one will be determined at the opening ceremony.

The bracket in all its magnificence can be seen at

http://en.chessbase.com/post/2015-wo...ed-and-updated

From chessbase.com

The tournament is a knockout format with mini-matches of two games played at 90 minutes for the first 40 moves followed by 30 minutes for the rest of the game with an addition of 30 seconds per move from move one. If no winner emerges, then a third day will decide via tiebreaks, starting with two rapid games of 25 minutes plus ten seconds, and if no winner yet then two games at ten minutes plus ten seconds, then two games of five minutes plus three seconds, and finally, if still neither player was able to claim victory, a sudden death game.

The seventh and final match will be of four games that otherwise follow the same structure as the previous rounds with the same tiebreak system. At the end of this event that can take as many as 16 standard games, not only will the winner take home the trophy and check for $96 thousand, but the two finalists will be seeded into the World Championship Candidates tournament, in which the winner will earn the right to challenge Magnus Carlsen for the world title.

**Jack Maguire** · Monday, 7th September, 2015, 01:04 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

Originally posted by Wayne Komer View Post

World Cup Baku 2015

Chess by the Numbers has already worked out the odds of winning

https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/w...015-world-cup/

Seed Player Rating Odds REACHING FINALS Odds of WINNING

1 Veselin Topalov (BUL) 2816 26.5% 16.4%
2 Hikaru Nakamura (USA) 2814 24.9% 15.5%
3 Fabiano Caruana (USA) 2808 22.2% 13.4%
4 Anish Giri (NED) 2793 17.1% 9.3%
5 Wesley So (USA) 2779 12.1% 6.0%
6 Vladimir Kramnik (RUS) 2777 10.8% 5.4%
7 Alexander Grisch.(RUS) 2771 9.1% 4.4%
8 Ding Liren (CHN) 2770 8.9% 4.2%
9 Levon Aronian (ARM) 2765 7.6% 3.4%
10 Dmitry Jakovenko (RUS) 2759 6.2% 2.8%

The 'real' betting odds are significantly different, Wayne. Aronian's performance at the Sinquefield Cup has made him the 3rd favourite at 59/10, behind only Nakamura at 5/1 and "Any Other" at 11/2. The latter gives you 100 participants, most notably including both Ding Liren and Wei Yi (:

Amusingly, Aronian, Caruana, Giri, Nakamura, and Topalov are all 1/200 to win their R1 match (:

https://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/

**Andy Shaw** · Monday, 7th September, 2015, 01:22 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

They show a "draw" as a betting option. What does that mean? Draws are impossible. No?

**Jack Maguire** · Monday, 7th September, 2015, 02:50 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

Originally posted by Andy Shaw View Post

They show a "draw" as a betting option. What does that mean? Draws are impossible. No?

The odds are for the 2 games only, not taking into account the playoff format should the 2 games end 1 to 1 (i.e. either 2 draws or a win and a loss). A score of 1 to 1 is effectively a 'draw'. There will be new odds posted for any of the matches that go to a playoff.

**Caesar Posylek** · Monday, 7th September, 2015, 03:04 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

I agree with that statement! Will be very hard for Tomas.

**Andy Shaw** · Monday, 7th September, 2015, 03:58 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

Originally posted by Jack Maguire View Post

The odds are for the 2 games only, not taking into account the playoff format should the 2 games end 1 to 1 (i.e. either 2 draws or a win and a loss). A score of 1 to 1 is effectively a 'draw'. There will be new odds posted for any of the matches that go to a playoff.

Do you bet on that website?

**Wayne Komer** · Wednesday, 9th September, 2015, 03:43 AM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

World Cup Baku 2015

The schedule is now out:

https://www.fide.com/component/conte...l-website.html

and the official site is:

http://www.bakuworldcup2015.com/en

10th September:
° 18h00: Technical informational meeting for the participants, arbiters and officials (Fairmont Hotel)
° 19h30: Opening Ceremony at the Mugham Center. The transport from the technical meeting to the opening ceremony will be provided by the organizers.

11th September: Round 1, game 1
12th September: Round 1, game 2
13th September: Tie-break day

14th September: Round 2, game 1
15th September: Round 2, game 2
16th September: Tie break day

17th September: Round 3, game 1
18th September: Round 3, game 2
19th September: Tie break day

20th September: Round 4, game 1
21st September: Round 4, game 2
22nd September: Tie break day

23rd September: Round 5, game 1
24th September: Round 5, game 2
25th September: Tie break day

26th September: Free day on organizers' cost

27th September: Round 6, game 1
28th September: Round 6, game 2
29th September: Tie break day

30th September: Free day

1st October: Round 7, game 1
2nd October: Round 7, game 2
3rd October: Round 7, game 3
4th October: Round 7, game 4

5th October: Tie break day and closing ceremony on the evening

**Jack Maguire** · Thursday, 10th September, 2015, 07:08 AM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

Originally posted by Jack Maguire View Post

The 'real' betting odds are significantly different, Wayne. Aronian's performance at the Sinquefield Cup has made him the 3rd favourite at 59/10, behind only Nakamura at 5/1 and "Any Other" at 11/2. The latter gives you 100 participants, most notably including both Ding Liren and Wei Yi (:

Amusingly, Aronian, Caruana, Giri, Nakamura, and Topalov are all 1/200 to win their R1 match (:

https://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/

A lot of late money has been placed on 'Any Other' as that's now the prohibitive favourite at 39/10 (a precipitous drop from 11/2). While I'd love to see Ding Liren and/or Wei Yi qualify for the Candidates, betting favourites is seldom prudent (:

https://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/

**Wayne Komer** · Thursday, 10th September, 2015, 03:56 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

World Cup Baku 2015

September 10, 2015

Yesterday, Apple presented iPencil, which it calls a "precision input device" instead of an electronic stylus. They also touted new improvements to their Apple Watch.

Today, Israel Gelfer announced that as an anti-cheating measure, players are advised not to carry watches or pens.

This caused Hikaru Nakamura to tweet:

It's a sad day for chess when cheating has reached the point of no watches and pens being allowed.

**Eric Hansen** · Thursday, 10th September, 2015, 06:59 PM

Re: World Cup Baku 2015

GM RvK and myself will be predictiong and analyzing the tournament tonight at 7 pm EST at www.chess.com/tv or www.twitch.tv/chess. Feel free to ask questions!

World Cup Baku 2015

World Cup Baku 2015

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