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The Candidates 2016 betting odds are now available and Nakamura is the early favourite at 16/5, followed closely by Aronian at 19/5. Caruana is the 3rd favourite at an even 4/1, with Karjakin somewhat surprisingly next at 9/2. Giri sits 5th at 5/1 and the only 2800 player in the field, Topalov, is at 7/1. The longshots are Anand at 12/1 and Svidler at 14/1.
The betting favourite, Nakamura, is only a composite +30, -29, =83 against this strong field. Naka has empirical problems with Aronian (+6, -11, =12), Topalov (+2, -5, =5), and Svidler (+2, -6, =5).
Suffice it to say that I'd definitely bet Aronian ahead of Nakamura given his far superior +47, -27, =100 record against these opponents. Levon has winning records against all his opponents with the sole exception of Topalov (+4, -7, =16).
It will be a fascinating tournament. I believe that Nakamura is still improving and is the most dangerous of them all. I'd love to see Aronian play Carlsen but Levon is too random. Giri seldom loses, so I am surprised that he doesn't rank higher.
It will be a fascinating tournament. I believe that Nakamura is still improving and is the most dangerous of them all. I'd love to see Aronian play Carlsen but Levon is too random. Giri seldom loses, so I am surprised that he doesn't rank higher.
Giri loses against this field, Hal, a composite +8, -18, =43. The only player he has a winning score against is Anand, +1, -0, =8. He's a combined +1 (Nakamura), -11, =13 against Nakamura, Aronian, and Karjakin.
Hi Jack. It may not be accurate to try to calculate odds based on each player's total record against the other candidates. Seems to me there needs to be an adjustment for age. Forinstance, Anish (21) has been at his peak playing strength for a far shorter period of time than Levon (33). Maybe, just for the sake of discussion, Anish's record against the others since he passed 2750 should be considered.
"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
"Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
"If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey
Agreed Peter. I don't think the historical scores are the most important factor, especially for young Giri. Good nerves and good form throughout the event will be essential and every one of these Candidates at their best can win the tournament.
Hi Jack. It may not be accurate to try to calculate odds based on each player's total record against the other candidates. Seems to me there needs to be an adjustment for age. Forinstance, Anish (21) has been at his peak playing strength for a far shorter period of time than Levon (33). Maybe, just for the sake of discussion, Anish's record against the others since he passed 2750 should be considered.
I fully concede the point that some kind of adjustment need be made, Peter. But neither can I totally discount the absolute atrocity of Giri's record against Aronian. I'd certainly bet Topalov at 7/1 before I'd bet Giri at 5/1. Imho, the odds should be reversed on these two players.
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