Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

[Wayne Komer]

Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

March 30, 2016

Jon Speelman looks forward to the match with this ChessBase article:

How will Karjakin fare against Carlsen?

http://en.chessbase.com/post/speelma...gainst-carlsen

He says that Karjakin has about seven months to prepare and there are at least three absolutely key areas:

The first is the obvious one of deciding on the openings he wants to play and preparing the lines to a very high standard. It's what he and all the players of this computer age do every day though the demands of a world championship, in which In particular he will have to defend himself six times as Black, are qualitatively higher than in nay other event.

Secondly there is physical fitness. A match takes a huge toll on the body as well as the mind and during one of my Candidates matches of a fortnight or so my opponent had apparently lost nearly six kilos. Karjakin is a young guy and must be pretty fit already, but he will need to be absolutely sure that he's as near as possible to his peak when he plays Magnus.

The third crucial element will be how to counter Carlsen in the quiet positions he plays so magnificently. You have some control over what positions you get in a match but it is the natural entropy of a chess game to decay to some sort of more or less tense endgame and you can't expect to avoid these entirely.
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Some online comments about the Candidates winner and the Match:

- Nice to see Karjakin win. A new face is always interesting to see in a championship, and at his best Karjakin is brilliant, so here's to a stellar and exciting match this November.

- I guess one thing we can learn from the previous 2 candidate tournaments is anyone can be a winner and hard to predict. It's a tough tournament for all and all have given their best, but sometime luck, fate, destiny, or whatever you call it play a role. Congrats to Karjakin and hope you give Magnus a run for his money

- Nothing in this world could beat Russian Teamwork, EXCEPT Bobby Fischer an exception! Even then Bobby had a minus score against Mikhail Tal!

I am open as to whether Magnus Team or Karjakin Team who is stronger?! Undecided The scales are still tilted in favour of Russians! cos I believe there is no equal to Russian Novelties over the Chess Board!!

- Karjakin is formidable to win WCC with Soviet team support and Theoretical Novelties!
BUT, it makes a difference IF KASPAROV BECOMES MAGNUS's second, then even the soviet team can do nothing against a guru and a disciplined combination like MAGNUS-KASPAROV coming together!

But this is all speculation for me! But why Not it may happen?

- HELLO fide...
now that you've got the "match for the ages" -
we want minimum 16 games; 24 games even better. maybe you might even want to give fischer's 'draws don't count, first to "x" number of wins' some consideration.

let's make it a 'real' contest!
a test of nerves, endurance, will power; a spectacle of strategy and counter strategy - of match psychology.

- Karjakin is just one of those players whose actual caliber isn't what their ELO points reflect. Among the 3 players I wanted to win, he was my favorite.

- Karjakin is a tough defender and will be a good match for Carlsen.

- In the interest of professionalism and raising the status of the sport, I'd like to see the players wearing suits without sponsors' names emblazoned on them.

(Jonathan Rowson) - Karjakin won The World Cup & Candidates. He's stable & strong.

Alas, there's nothing he can do that Magnus can't do better.

- sergey karjakin aka 'the wizard'...
absolutely the most challenging, best qualified and I believe most difficult opponent for carlsen.

let the games begin!

[Frank Dixon]

Re: Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

GM Carlsen has a deserved reputation for interesting opening play, with a very wide variety of possibilities. I am hoping we will see a high degree of creativity in that part of chess for the World Championship match. Fischer vs. Spassky in 1972 saw quite a bit of this, with Fischer also varying significantly from his lifetime of openings constancy.

I am looking forward to the match, and am really hoping to visit for part of it!

[Matthew Nicholson]

Re: Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

No question that Karjakin backed by the Russians will be better prepared (is already better prepared*) than Carlsen. The problem is that Carlsen has historically done very well with one-off openings and then winning equal but unusual positions. On the other hand, Karjakin's extensive opening prep combined with his experience in the QID might make him pretty good in all kinds of different middlegame positions.

I think this is going to be a very good match. But then again I thought Kramnik-Kasparov was one of the best WCC's in history lol..

[Nigel Hanrahan]

political influences on the match

There will (likely) be less U.S. generated publicity without an American in the event. I'm a little worried that with the weaponization of all things, including sports, in US/Russian relations, we may see really partisan domestic efforts to influence the result or poison the waters. Needless to say, that would be bad (except for the most extreme neo cons like Kasparov et al).

Did I read that Carlsen remarked somewhere that he would prefer Karjakin over Caruana because the former will likely be booed by NYC fans? Don't forget that Karjakin, born in [what is now again] Russian Crimea, renounced his Ukrainian citizenship in 2009 (they don't allow dual citizenship) and now plays for Russia. He also divorced a Ukrainian GM and remarried. So there's plenty there for the haters to hate.

I'm glad that AGON improved their coverage over the course of the Candidates, but there was plenty of grousing about that coverage. I suppose an interesting question is how the litigation against the handful of firms (Chess24, ChessBomb, Internet Chess Club and ChessGames) will proceed and what influence that may have. The extreme response is a boycott of the event. Think that's impossible? Think again.

And, of course, the actions of the US Treasury Department against the FIDE President may come to bear. Will Kirsan simply stay away (the reach of the US government did not extend to the Telegraph Building in Moscow), or will things change in this regard? My prediction was that Kirsan will be there. A change in the US administration - perhaps a new President attending the event? - and even such unlikely scenarios become possible.


Any or all or none of these matters might blow up. I suppose we will find out in November.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio is quoted on the official page (WCC comes to NYC 11-30 November 2016) and there are links to NYT and WSJ articles. So I don't want to be all gloom and doom, of course.

Let's hope it's a great sporting event and all the political and other nonsense play no significant role.

[Jack Maguire]

Re: political influences on the match

I surmise that Xiangzhi Bu would make Carlsen the strong favourite since he's single and Karjakin isn't. (:

http://www.asianchess.com/news/detail/1902

[Nigel Hanrahan]

More about the Treasury claims against Kirsan

And, of course, the actions of the US Treasury Department against the FIDE President may come to bear. Will Kirsan simply stay away (the reach of the US government did not extend to the Telegraph Building in Moscow), or will things change in this regard? My prediction was that Kirsan will be there. A change in the US administration - perhaps a new President attending the event? - and even such unlikely scenarios become possible.

... Let's hope it's a great sporting event and all the political and other nonsense play no significant role.

Just a little more analysis on the whole Kirsan issue. Despite the enormous amount of egg on the face of the US administration over events in Syria - in particular the undeniable drubbing that the Daesh/ISIS terrorists have received at the hands of the Syrian Arab Army and their allies (esp. the Russian AF) - they are still, obstinately, sticking mainly to their narrative of claiming that the Syrian government is the main sponsor of terrorism there, and that, therefore, Kirsan has links to terrorism by virtue of his alleged links to a Syrian bank.

It really is a steaming pile of animal droppings, but, no matter! If the US government says it is true, then it must be true.

How can the Americans step back in a face-saving way from their block-headed claims that defy the evidence? It's not an easy question. Some analysts claim that the "Plan B" of the US is for the federal dismemberment of Syria, along ethnic lines, and that success in this regard will help them to swallow this most bitter pill of humiliation. But what is the humiliation? That Syria hasn't become a failed state like Libya? That Syria and its Russian and Iranian allies have pounded the terrorists? And maybe there's the rub. The hubris of the Empire knows no bounds... in this case, success by others is viewed as a failure of US leadership. Never mind the results.

So maybe a change of administration is the only way forward. A new regime in Washington can blame the current POTUS for all the problems, and do a reset that the Obama administration failed to do.



I mean, really. If Daesh and ISIS are driven out of Syria, how can the US government continue with this block-headed approach? Are they going to claim that an alliance of elves, dwarves and hobbits beat the terrorists? Or just a dumb silence (like the current silence of the liberation of UNESCO Heritage Site of Palmyra) ? There's got to be an end to the dubious claims of the Treasury Department eventually. It's just going to get more and more embarrassing.

Surely they're not going to like being laughed at? Let's hope so.

In any case, it looks like that with or without Kirsan present, the Match will go forward. And, frankly, good on Kirsan for not making his problems everyone's problem.

[Wayne Komer]

Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

April 6, 2016

It was announced today that Sergey Karjakin was withdrawing from the Norway Chess Tournament 2016 because of tiredness and to concentrate on preparing himself for the World Championship Match with Magnus Carlsen in November.

Karjakin’s manager, Kirillos Zangalis said this:

The leadership of the Russian Chess Federation fully supports their sportsman and at the current moment we’re sticking to an exact schedule worked out in preparation for the World Championship match against Magnus Carlsen.

Sergey replied to these interview questions:

You now need to establish your team for the match against Carlsen. Will it be bigger than usual?

Definitely. I think I need no fewer than five trainers. Just now I was helped by four grandmasters. I also need a coach for physical preparation and, perhaps, a cook. The preparation will cost serious money, but there are sponsors and the Ministry of Sport has promised to help.

How much does a working day from a top class chess trainer cost?

On average 500 euros. Long term, the amount is reduced.

That same theme was touched on in a video interview with Match TV, who tweeted a Karjakin quote that 300,000 euros would be needed to prepare a World Championship challenge.

https://chess24.com/en/read/news/kar...lash-in-norway

______

It is clear that the Russians now have a chance to regain the World Chess Championship and they are going to go at it with support, unprecedented since the days of Spassky and Karpov - money, trainers, training facilities and seconds doing theoretical work. You can do a lot in seven months!

[Wayne Komer]

Re: Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

July 27, 2016

Gregory Serper has another provocative and enjoyable column at:

https://www.chess.com/article/view/c...-and-crude-oil

Carlsen vs Karjakin And Crude Oil

It begins with this preamble:

The world championship match between Magnus Carlsen and Sergey Karjakin is getting closer, and it is time to update our old forecast. This time I will channel my inner Nate Silver and provide you with some numbers.

Let's look at the rating chart of the challenger, which you can find on the official FIDE website. What do you see there? There is a meteoric rise from an Elo rating of 2206 in January 2000 to a peak of 2788 in July 2011. After that, Sergey Karjakin unfortunately hit a plateau, and his rating didn't go anywhere for the next five years. When everyone was about to write off the still young and very talented grandmaster, Sergey managed to win a dramatic Candidates' Tournament in March 2016 to earn the right to challenge World Champion Magnus Carlsen.

Now, take a look at the long-term chart of crude oil prices courtesy of Wikipedia.

You can see that oil started its unbelievable ascent from the low twenties in the year 2000 to a peak of around $115 per barrel in May 2011. After that, the price of crude oil went nowhere until the summer of 2014, when it started its epic collapse. When some experts started talking about virtually free oil, the price staged a massive rebound in February and March of 2016. From a low of $26 per barrel, the price eventually jumped to over $50 per barrel. Now do you see a correlation between GM Karjakin's results and the price of crude oil?
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Is this an example of Freakonomics?

[Jack Maguire]

Re: Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

Magnus remains the overwhelming betting favourite at 1/7 to win the match (1/5 to win without the necessity of play-offs).

https://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/

[Nigel Hanrahan]

Re: Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

An interesting new logo for the World Ch. by the looks of it.

[John Coleman]

Re: Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

Made by a non-player, clearly. The files should be in lower case, and - as always - white at the right.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

An interesting new logo for the World Ch. by the looks of it.

Actually, I think that's the playing board for Kevin Pacey's new variant, "SMACK Chess". :D

Wait till you see the pieces!

[Nigel Hanrahan]

Krauthammer gets wistful about Cold War chess

Charles Krauthammer has written a little piece in which he enthusiastically writes about the upcoming World Ch. for non-chess players. Rather too much Cold War nostalgia for my liking, but whatever fills your boots. Chess is chess and "to each his own" as K puts it.

To each his own Olympics. Chess, anyone?

I can't help but add that Krauthammer probably likes the Lopez, aka "the Spanish Rack", since he's been such a consistent supporter of torture over the years.

[Wayne Komer]

Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

October 11, 2016

Karjakin gave a final press conference before heading off to Miami on October 17 for a training camp.

Colin McGourty comments at chess24.com:

https://chess24.com/en/read/news/kar...ay-of-his-life

An excerpt:

Are you ready to take on the killer?

Karjakin - In my view I’ve got a preferable form of that killer instinct, because I try to win where it’s important, while Magnus does regardless of whether it’s important or not.

And when did you develop that killer instinct?

Long ago, in my childhood. Once I spent three days travelling by bus from Kiev to Greece for the European U10 Championship. I was nine years old. The journey was absolutely crazy, and the moment I got off the bus they sat me down at the board. I was so exhausted I blundered a piece on move 10 and lost. In order to win the tournament I needed to score eight points out of eight, and I did it. In my career I’ve won a large number of deciding games, and the roots of that were planted in my childhood.

You’re in a good mood before your departure for the USA. What’s the basis of that? You’ve got nothing to lose?

No, I can’t pretend that the result of the match isn’t very important for me. I want to win and return the crown to Russia. It’s not for nothing my sponsors, training staff and I have been doing so much work. Of course I’ll try to win, but from a psychological point of view it’s tougher for him to defend his title. Everyone expects nothing but victory from him, but it might not be so easy for him. Carlsen will have to work full out during the match, and we’ll see what kind of form he’s in. If I’m in good form then I’ve got every chance of success.

The Vice President of the Moscow Chess Federation GM Sergey Smagin said that you can count on success in the USA if you show the “best play of your life”. What should the “best play of your life” look like?

I think that if Carlsen wants to beat me he needs to show the best play of his life. Actually, it’s all subjective, and in order to win it may be enough to catch your opponent out in some nuances. At times it’s enough to beat an opponent in one game, and then he can get nervous, although the 12-game length makes it possible to mount a comeback.

You still haven’t switched to a regime of training based on American hours?

It’s a little early. We’ll switch to a new regime in Miami, where I’m heading on 17 October. 20 days on the US coast should be enough to acclimatise. In general America is, of course, interesting. Whatever you think about it, it’s a great country. My wife flew to New York first for the match inspection, and said that she liked the match organisation, but not New York itself.
_________

Seconds/helpers etc for Karjakin mentioned in the interview are: Yury Dokhoian, Vladimir Potkin Shakhriyar Mamedyarov and Ian Nepomniachtchi.

[Wayne Komer]

Re: Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

Prospects for the Carlsen – Karjakin Match

October 26, 2016

MOSCOW, October 26. /TASS/. Russia’s Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, the President of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), told TASS on Wednesday he hoped the United States would grant him next week a visa to enter their country.

"I spoke with Washington yesterday," Ilyumzhinov said in an interview with TASS adding that he had provided all necessary documents to travel to the United States.

"I have provided them with the information regarding all of my foreign travels for the last 15 years," he said. "On the average, I have 90 foreign trips annually. I have also passed the finger prints scanning procedure."

"I am now waiting for their decision," Ilyumzhinov said. "I hope that next week I will be granted a permission to enter the United States."

In November 2015, the United States Department of Treasury imposed sanctions against Ilyumzhinov stating that he had been "materially assisting and acting for, or on behalf of the Government of Syria, Central Bank of Syria." Ilyumzhinov denied the allegations saying he had no commercial interests in Syria.

Ilyumzhinov announced in spring his plans to go to New York for the 2016 FIDE World Chess Championship in November and hoped that the US-imposed sanctions would have been lifted by that time.

See:

http://tass.com/sport/908800
____________

Tech guru Bill Gates and social media mogul Mark Zuckerberg have announced that they will attend the World Chess Championship (WCC) in New York next month.

“Gates and Zuckerberg have agreed to attend the match. I don’t know whether it will be at the opening or one of the later games,” World Chess Federation (FIDE) President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov announced Wednesday, TASS reported.

“I am still waiting to hear back from [US President Barack] Obama, [presidential candidates Donald] Trump and [Hillary] Clinton. At the very least, I haven’t had a refusal,” he added.

The WCC is held annually to determine the world chess champion and will be held this year from November 11-30 in New York, with Russian Sergey Karjakin facing Norwegian Magnus Carlsen.

https://www.rt.com/sport/364202-gate...championships/
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Kirsan does have unbounded optimism. I’ll buy a viewing membership with Agon in a New York minute if I could be assured of watching Hillary and Donald in a front row viewing the match!