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Few weeks ago I got an e-mail from John Upper, he asked me to write an article about Olympiad. I did this also exactly 2 years ago, it was published few months later, in spring (!) 2015. Now, I just read it again and found some interesting predictions:
1. About Canadian Team
"Taking all these factors into account, we can expect the average rating of Canadian Team be around 2580-2600 level. This average must be enough for something like 30th starting position and in case of successful tournament, for a top-20 finish."
2. About Kirsan and FIDE
"Kasparov spent whole 2 weeks in Norway, trying to improve his chances. The slogans with his picture were almost everywhere in Tromso. However, his loss was imminent. I expected him to lose long time ago, but the final voting score 110 - 61 surprised myself. I was positive about Garry's ability to perform better than Karpov did 4 year ago; but actually the difference was even bigger this time. My personal prediction is that Kirsan will lose the next elections, maybe even to Garry. Although, I would prefer to see another person for this position.
The main reason for this forecast is a current strong and fast deterioration in economical and political situation in Russia."
3. About Team USA
"Team USA had rather disappointed tournament. They couldn't do any better, if G.Kamsky loses 25 rating points and performs below 2500 level. They will have a chance to send a much better team in 2016. Probably, W.So will be available for USA next time. I heard something about Caruana's intention to change the federation from Italy to USA; he is a citizen of US and was born there. However, I am not sure about this."
These 3 predictions were really good. However 1 prediction was wrong completely. It was about my reasons being optimistic about Canadian Team.
"I believe, we can expect Canadian Team to be stronger in the Olympiad-16 in Baku, Azerbaijan. The main reason for my optimism is the very strong wave of 14-16 years old Canadian chess players. Since the generation which was born in 1991-92 and until this one (born in 1998-2000) I didn't see any Canadian junior being able not only to reach 2300 FIDE - 2450 CFC level, but also to hold it for a long period of time. Now we have R.Preotu and R.Wang, while J.Cao is close to this level. Top 2 Canadian U-20 Juniors are Razvan and Richard and they are just 15 and 16 years old. Very likely, they can be a valuable addition to Canadian National Team already in the next Olympiad.
Another reason for my optimism is a wide group of IMs around 2400-2450 FIDE. Most of them are young and definitely have enough time for improvement. While it's not that easy to gain 100 points at this level, we still can expect this for one or two of them.
The average age of our 3 GMs was just 26 in Norway, will be 28 in the next Olympiad. Of course, 28 is not the age there one can expect any deterioration. This is very possible that all of them will be higher-rated players in 2 years."
All my 3 "reasons for optimism" were wrong. Out good result happened because of completely different reasons.
1. About Canadian Team
"Taking all these factors into account, we can expect the average rating of Canadian Team be around 2580-2600 level. This average must be enough for something like 30th starting position and in case of successful tournament, for a top-20 finish."
2. About Kirsan and FIDE
"Kasparov spent whole 2 weeks in Norway, trying to improve his chances. The slogans with his picture were almost everywhere in Tromso. However, his loss was imminent. I expected him to lose long time ago, but the final voting score 110 - 61 surprised myself. I was positive about Garry's ability to perform better than Karpov did 4 year ago; but actually the difference was even bigger this time. My personal prediction is that Kirsan will lose the next elections, maybe even to Garry. Although, I would prefer to see another person for this position.
The main reason for this forecast is a current strong and fast deterioration in economical and political situation in Russia."
3. About Team USA
"Team USA had rather disappointed tournament. They couldn't do any better, if G.Kamsky loses 25 rating points and performs below 2500 level. They will have a chance to send a much better team in 2016. Probably, W.So will be available for USA next time. I heard something about Caruana's intention to change the federation from Italy to USA; he is a citizen of US and was born there. However, I am not sure about this."
These 3 predictions were really good. However 1 prediction was wrong completely. It was about my reasons being optimistic about Canadian Team.
"I believe, we can expect Canadian Team to be stronger in the Olympiad-16 in Baku, Azerbaijan. The main reason for my optimism is the very strong wave of 14-16 years old Canadian chess players. Since the generation which was born in 1991-92 and until this one (born in 1998-2000) I didn't see any Canadian junior being able not only to reach 2300 FIDE - 2450 CFC level, but also to hold it for a long period of time. Now we have R.Preotu and R.Wang, while J.Cao is close to this level. Top 2 Canadian U-20 Juniors are Razvan and Richard and they are just 15 and 16 years old. Very likely, they can be a valuable addition to Canadian National Team already in the next Olympiad.
Another reason for my optimism is a wide group of IMs around 2400-2450 FIDE. Most of them are young and definitely have enough time for improvement. While it's not that easy to gain 100 points at this level, we still can expect this for one or two of them.
The average age of our 3 GMs was just 26 in Norway, will be 28 in the next Olympiad. Of course, 28 is not the age there one can expect any deterioration. This is very possible that all of them will be higher-rated players in 2 years."
All my 3 "reasons for optimism" were wrong. Out good result happened because of completely different reasons.
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