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Ouff! That is very sad. In your shoes I would have waited until April 1. Lots can happen...hopefully for the best. We have two major events happening April 19 and April 26...while I hope they will happen...but we will not put the safety of our kids in danger. Anyway, for us (the Chess`N Math Association) all major decisions will be made on April 1, 2020.
Ouff! That is very sad. In your shoes I would have waited until April 1. Lots can happen...hopefully for the best. We have two major events happening April 19 and April 26...while I hope they will happen...but we will not put the safety of our kids in danger. Anyway, for us (the Chess`N Math Association) all major decisions will be made on April 1, 2020.
Larry
I chose medical expertise over anyone's shoes. In the doctor's words: "this is going to last a long time"
During this process of determining whether to cancel or not, I have found some tremendously insightful information regarding this huge COVID-19 challenge.
I have sent the following link to many people, but the vast majority of people find this article too long to read. It's an investment of at least 15 minutes to do so, and I deeply and sincerely encourage you to do so. In my opinion, and in the opinion of most medical expertise, the COVID-19 challenge is greater than it may intuitively appear to be to most of us. However, most people still seem to be holding on to their intuitive evaluations of the situation. On the other hand, latest quick studies are realizing that asymptomatic transmission is a greater driver of virus spread than previously thought. A side effect of this is that it lessens the effectiveness of trying to contain COVID-19 via infection identification. Regardless, except for a handful of very sharply prepared countries, most countries now already have too many cases (mostly unidentified yet), that are driving exponential spread, that are leading to overwhelmed health care systems. What makes this so bad is that people will die from the virus. That was practically inevitable. But then more (many more in some countries) will die from lack of health care.
So now the counter-attack from humanity is Social Distancing. I know most people still scoff at this. But again, read this article. We need Social Distancing.
You are probably right...but I am hopeful...two weeks today is huge...anyway...you have made your decision (with the doctor`s shoes at that!). It is still sad. I will still wait until April 1...my doc sold me his shoes :)
hi just to put my 2cents in i agree with aris, its best to err on the side of caution regarding the covid 19 situation.
I played in the kingston tourney last year and really enjoyed it and was looking forward to it this year before the corona virus hit.
Being 68yrs old from what i have read it is harder to recover should you test positive and i dont particularly like larry bevands jokes about docters shoes, this is serious stuff.
I play in the kingston chess club and frank dixon posted earlier that we bow to each other as opposed to shaking hands, but as neil frarey pointed out we still all touch the same peices which means we are still basically shaking hands !
I also agree with the decision Aris has made........and I am sure he laboured over it, and researched it.......
I have not yet read the full article on COVID-19 and transmission rates that he posted, but my daughter (some health/medical background - I brought it to her attention) has read most of it and she says it appears quite sound (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca).
There hasn't been a social outbreak in Canada (different story in the US), almost all the cases come from travellers. So if your club members haven't been in close contact with travellers, keep on playing. Airplanes and airports are dangerous and the Easter Zonal would have brought travellers to Kingston. It just takes one person on the plane to infect others.
The people, seniors, who are dying mostly have a preexisting health issue, and lack of medical care like ventilators. Our hospitals are not swamped with cases so we all will get excellent medical care. Different story in the US.
hi just to put my 2cents in i agree with aris, its best to err on the side of caution regarding the covid 19 situation.
I played in the kingston tourney last year and really enjoyed it and was looking forward to it this year before the corona virus hit.
Being 68yrs old from what i have read it is harder to recover should you test positive and i dont particularly like larry bevands jokes about docters shoes, this is serious stuff.
I play in the kingston chess club and frank dixon posted earlier that we bow to each other as opposed to shaking hands, but as neil frarey pointed out we still all touch the same peices which means we are still basically shaking hands !
would welcome any thoughts.......ray
Thank you Ray for the support. I also researched it with our federal government, and unfortunately, chess ticks off most of their more serious checkboxes for riskful mass gatherings.
I also agree with the decision Aris has made........and I am sure he laboured over it, and researched it.......
I have not yet read the full article on COVID-19 and transmission rates that he posted, but my daughter (some health/medical background - I brought it to her attention) has read most of it and she says it appears quite sound (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca).
Oh my goodness, yes, I laboured over it so much. It was personally deeply difficult to cancel. But once Kingston Public Health told me to, well, I saw no point in dragging people along for the wait.
There hasn't been a social outbreak in Canada (different story in the US), almost all the cases come from travellers. So if your club members haven't been in close contact with travellers, keep on playing. Airplanes and airports are dangerous and the Easter Zonal would have brought travellers to Kingston. It just takes one person on the plane to infect others.
The people, seniors, who are dying mostly have a preexisting health issue, and lack of medical care like ventilators. Our hospitals are not swamped with cases so we all will get excellent medical care. Different story in the US.
I suggest the risk is precisely what happened in Italy, where our hospitals DO get swamped with a spike in cases, most of which COULD be handled by regular staffing and equipment, but because of the swamping, there aren't enough ventilators (for example) to take care of everyone incoming. I do agree with you this will be even worse in the U.S., especially with their monetized health care.
Quite frankly, I think the Board of Education has got it right. Next week is March break and the travel that it usually entails. Although many may cancel, many more may travel anyway to avoid losing their deposits. So, two weeks after that for self-isolation and the week of April 6th means that travel may have been mitigated.
Will the crisis be over by then? Who knows? In any case, monitoring CDC and Health Canada is the way to go, rather than rely on google search.
I've already seen a video that says this is a "depopulation conspiracy"!
I suggest the risk is precisely what happened in Italy, where our hospitals DO get swamped with a spike in cases, most of which COULD be handled by regular staffing and equipment, but because of the swamping, there aren't enough ventilators (for example) to take care of everyone incoming. I do agree with you this will be even worse in the U.S., especially with their monetized health care.
Actually given a proportional infection rate the U.S. likely has far more ventilators than we have in Canada per capita. To start a hospital in the U.S. is much easier at a much lower cost than they get built in Canada usually by a factor of three or four on the cost. This is confirmed by a google search.
US: 20.5 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability per 100,000 population• Canada: 8.7 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability per 100,000 population http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.o...fact-sheet.pdf
Actually given a proportional infection rate the U.S. likely has far more ventilators than we have in Canada per capita. To start a hospital in the U.S. is much easier at a much lower cost than they get built in Canada usually by a factor of three or four on the cost. This is confirmed by a google search.
US: 20.5 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability per 100,000 population• Canada: 8.7 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability per 100,000 population http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.o...fact-sheet.pdf
That's really interesting stats, thanks Vlad. The main motivation behind my especially-in-the-US thought was my personal perception that Canada will "flatten the curve" better than the States will. That's just my personal opinion, and only time will tell whether the differences between our countries will be managed by, or exceed, the numbers that you provided. Thanks again for these details.
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CANCELLED: 2020 Kingston Easter Chess
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