Can Biden win?

[Neil Frarey]

https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-...iz-man-to-dad/


Barely There Biden "denials" you all have eagerly slurped ... like kitten milk ... LOL!!!


Joe Biden - "If the prosecutor is not fired, you're not getting the money" ... “Well, son of a bitch. He got fired.”

Joe Biden - "No one's found anything wrong with Hunter's dealings with Ukraine except they say it sets a bad image."

Joe Biden - “I have never spoken to my son about his overseas business dealings.”

Joe Biden - "You know there’s not one single bit of evidence, not one little tiny bit, to say anything done was wrong, you know that."


Oops ... LOOL :))))

"Well, son of a bitch". Joe Biden got caught.

[Lucas Davies]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...siagate-429257

Trump claimed on Twitter that he authorized the declassifying all documents related to "the long-running Russia investigation and Hillary Clinton's e-mails" with "no redactions." The DOJ ignored him because he didn't actually submit a declassification order, but instead just tweeted it out. So either he just flat out lied, or he's dumb enough to think that if he just tweets something out the DOJ will go and do it for him. But this new Biden thing is definitely real! This is going to be the one to finally take down Obama and Hillary!

[Pargat Perrer]

Biden is going to lose all four of those states.

Which 4 states?

The 4 that he loses. He wins the 46 other states. LOL

[Bob Gillanders]

Biden is going to lose all four of those states.

Which 4 states?

[Lucas Davies]

An Obama "scandal" that Trump described as the "biggest thing since Watergate" has resulted in absolutely nothing after investigation: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/polit...ion/index.html

Really weird how this seems to happen every time!

[Tom O'Donnell]

Biden is going to lose all four of those states. A good straw poll will be the viewership ratings for the Trump Town hall on NBC which is scheduled at the same time as the Biden Town Hall on ABC. Social media and the mainstream media are trying to suppress Hunter Biden's emails which apparently directly implicate Joe Biden in Burisma shenanigans.

The lesson for the unwashed: Don't stiff the computer shop repairing your laptop. It can have unintended consequences.

I'm not sure that this is the big October surprise yet. Apparently there is a lot there. Why would Hunter Biden allow himself to be videoed smoking crack? It really bolsters his image as a consultant that China could comfortably trust with billions of dollars.

I am not sure this will make such a big difference. Without Section 230 reform, Facebook, Twitter, et al will simply delete mentions of it. Meanwhile they will claim they are platforms, serving the public interest. Government, Big Tech, so many authoritarians who believe they know how the plebes should live and what they should know.


https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1...627520/photo/1

Cruz's point #4 is particularly damning, imo.

[Vlad Drkulec]

The polls don't seem to be changing very much. Overall, moving a little towards Biden in recent days.

Biden has good leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If he wins them all, his total is 279, enough to be President.

He has leads in several other states, but not enough for anyone to get comfortable.

The effects of the postal service sabotage, voter suppression tactics, etc. are all scary wild cards.

Biden is going to lose all four of those states. A good straw poll will be the viewership ratings for the Trump Town hall on NBC which is scheduled at the same time as the Biden Town Hall on ABC. Social media and the mainstream media are trying to suppress Hunter Biden's emails which apparently directly implicate Joe Biden in Burisma shenanigans.

The lesson for the unwashed: Don't stiff the computer shop repairing your laptop. It can have unintended consequences.

I'm not sure that this is the big October surprise yet. Apparently there is a lot there. Why would Hunter Biden allow himself to be videoed smoking crack? It really bolsters his image as a consultant that China could comfortably trust with billions of dollars.

[Bob Gillanders]

The polls don't seem to be changing very much. Overall, moving a little towards Biden in recent days.

Biden has good leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If he wins them all, his total is 279, enough to be President.

He has leads in several other states, but not enough for anyone to get comfortable.

The effects of the postal service sabotage, voter suppression tactics, etc. are all scary wild cards.

[Bob Gillanders]

The problem with this is that Sweden and Denmark and the other Scandinavian countries would reject your characterization and the Bernie myth of their status as socialist utopian economies. They are not.

First, thanks for the thoughtful reply. Much better than simply "Bernie is a communist", I do appreciate the effort.

I doubt any serious person advocated that the Scandinavian countries employing Democratic Socialism ever claimed to have achieved a utopian economy. If they did then than is simply foolish. Utopia is more a concept where perfection is achieved, likely never to be achieved in the real world. So no doubt the book has little trouble proving its title.

But Bernie and me are not claiming utopia, merely that USA should adopt some of the Democratic Socialism policies alive and well in Scandinavia.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Gallop Poll just last week ... 56% of Americans said that they are better off today than they were 4 years ago under the Obama-Biden administration.

When asked about that poll Barely There Biden ... says they should vote for Trump.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1315887926899769344

56% of Americans.

Smart.


Oct. 12th Barely There Biden campaigning in Ohio said that he is running for the Senate.

https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/stat...22121390284801

Yikes.

Biden did increase his crowd size to about a dozen if you count his campaign workers and secret service agents.

[Aris Marghetis]

If Biden withdraws and Jim Carrey took his place, would anybody notice?

THAT is funny! Well played!

[Victor Plotkin]

https://www.sportsinteraction.com/sp...tions-betting/

Currently Moneyline on Trump winning is +262 (27% chance of winning) per Sports Interaction.
Moneyline on Trump winning Michigan is +324 (23% chance of winning).

I think there is good value here..

2.62 odds on Trump reflect 38.2%. Looks like, you calculated 1/3.62= 27.6%, which is not exactly right.

Biden with odds 1.44 has 69.4%. Sure, bookmaker has advantage, because 38.2 + 69.4 = 107.6%. To get real numbers, we should divide by 1.076.

Trump: 38.2 / 1.076 = 35.5%
Biden: 69.4 / 1.076 = 64.5 %

So, 35.5% - 64.5% is the real odds right now.

The similar approach for Michigan gives Trump around 28% there.

I am waiting for Trump with below 25% chances (odds of 4).

[Pargat Perrer]

There are rumours that something very big is coming down from the coming declassification. I am not going to repeat the rumour, as it is quite fantastic that such a scandal is possible. If true, Biden will cry uncle and withdraw from the race.

If Biden withdraws and Jim Carrey took his place, would anybody notice?

[Neil Frarey]

Gallop Poll just last week ... 56% of Americans said that they are better off today than they were 4 years ago under the Obama-Biden administration.

When asked about that poll Barely There Biden ... says they should vote for Trump.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1315887926899769344

56% of Americans.

Smart.


Oct. 12th Barely There Biden campaigning in Ohio said that he is running for the Senate.

https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/stat...22121390284801

Yikes.

[Joshua Guo]

As of today, Trump has around 35% chances. The trend is obvious right now - Trump loses 2-3% chances a week. Now, the point is to choose the right moment...

https://www.sportsinteraction.com/sp...tions-betting/

Currently Moneyline on Trump winning is +262 (27% chance of winning) per Sports Interaction.
Moneyline on Trump winning Michigan is +324 (23% chance of winning).

I think there is good value here..