Can Biden win?

[Vlad Drkulec]

Polls from the past month I've found on Whitmer's approval rating:

51% approve; 41% disapprove: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ds/5898087002/
61% approve; 38% disapprove: https://wwjnewsradio.radio.com/artic...uring-pandemic
59% approve; 38% disapprove: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ds/5750849002/

Keep telling yourself that. If you are right then the polls are right. The fact that there are more Trump signs than Biden signs in rural Michigan don't mean a thing.

[Lucas Davies]

Polls from the past month I've found on Whitmer's approval rating:

51% approve; 41% disapprove: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ds/5898087002/
61% approve; 38% disapprove: https://wwjnewsradio.radio.com/artic...uring-pandemic
59% approve; 38% disapprove: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ds/5750849002/

[Vlad Drkulec]

With that in mind,

I have moved Michigan and Wisconsin into the Biden win category.

I think you are going to be wrong on both of those states. Whitmer is hated in Michigan. She just got a big setback in the state supreme court which found that her decrees were unconstitutional. They have ignored the ruling and have substituted more orders which will also be ruled unconstitutional. Trump will win Michigan in large part because of witless Whitmore.

[Erik Malmsten]

I have moved Michigan and Wisconsin into the Biden win category.
These both have Republican legislatures, but they do have Democrat Governors and a 7 point lead,
so any attempt to overturn the vote would likely not be successful.

That gives Biden a total of 259 votes.

The 6 battleground states are now (Biden leads all in the polls)

Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
Florida 29 votes - 3.5 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.9 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 2.2 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.5 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points

So now Biden only needs to win any one of these 6 to reach 270 and win.

Historic President Vote by State
2016/2012/2008/2004/2000/1996

3 went democrat
Michigan R D D D D D D
Pennsylvania R D D D D D
Wisconsin R D D D D D

2 mixed
Ohio R D D R R D
Florida R D D R R R

3 went republican
North Carolina R R D R R R
Arizona R R R R R D
Georgia R R R R R R

(from wikipedia)

[Bob Gillanders]

I declared some time ago that Biden wins in a free and fair election.
But it is difficult to predict the outcome with so many voter suppression tactics in play.
One huge new wild card is the sabotage at the post office.

A second huge wild card is the scenario of states with Republican legislatures overturning the will of the people.
A big enough win at the polls should discourage states to go down that road.

With that in mind,

I have moved Michigan and Wisconsin into the Biden win category.
These both have Republican legislatures, but they do have Democrat Governors and a 7 point lead,
so any attempt to overturn the vote would likely not be successful.

That gives Biden a total of 259 votes.

The 6 battleground states are now (Biden leads all in the polls)

Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
Florida 29 votes - 3.5 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.9 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 2.2 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.5 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points

So now Biden only needs to win any one of these 6 to reach 270 and win.

[Victor Plotkin]

Before this 3-day break with Trump's virus, this site provided odds for many battleground states. Not now.

https://www.sportsinteraction.com/sp...tions-betting/

My favorite bookmaker, marathonbet.com still doesn't provide odds at all for US election. Hopefully, it needs more time.

[Bob Gillanders]

After 3 days break, bookmakers provide numbers for Trump-Biden fight. Trump has about 40-41% chances, similar to numbers he had after debates. Looks like this story with his virus doesn't have much impact.

Victor, I would be very interested to know the bookmaker odds on each of my battleground states!!

[Victor Plotkin]

After 3 days break, bookmakers provide numbers for Trump-Biden fight. Trump has about 40-41% chances, similar to numbers he had after debates. Looks like this story with his virus doesn't have much impact.

[Bob Gillanders]

Updating my 8 battleground states this morning,
Biden leads the polls in all 8.

Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
Florida 29 votes - 3.6 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.8 points
Michigan 16 votes - 7.2 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 2.0 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.4 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points
Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.9 points

All moving in favour of Biden except Ohio.

Will it be enough to overcome Trump's attempts to steal the election?

Trump left the hospital last night and back at the White House.
Will that get him any votes?

[Bob Gillanders]

From Bob's post (which I think you sort of quoted?):

The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points

Hi Kerry, I add this after Dilip's post.

Biden needs 37 votes from this group.
He should be able to get Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, 46 points.

But let's not count our chickens too soon.
Will Trump get a sympathy vote?
Notice how nobody is talking about his taxes anymore!!

[Kerry Liles]

Thank you for your detailed analysis, Bob. It would be more helpful if you name the 8 battleground states on which the result would depend...

From Bob's post (which I think you sort of quoted?):

The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points

[Dilip Panjwani]

Well now, back to the exercise of predicting the Presidential race.
A lot has happened since my last analysis, the debate, Trump getting COVID, but the polls that count haven't changed a whole lot.
Biden needs to get to 270 electoral college votes.
With the blue states, and a few battleground states where he has a comfortable lead plus a democratic state legislature, he gets to 233.
He needs another 37 votes to reach 270.
There are 8 battleground states where he leads in the polls, but have a Republican legislature. Total votes = 135.
If Biden can win any combination with at least 37 votes, he gets at least 270. Biden wins.

Conversely, Trump has 170 votes from Red States, so needs another 100 votes to reach 270.
Trump needs to win at least 6 of these states to reach at least 270 and win.

Thank you for your detailed analysis, Bob. It would be more helpful if you name the 8 battleground states on which the result would depend...

[Bob Gillanders]

Well now, back to the exercise of predicting the Presidential race.
A lot has happened since my last analysis, the debate, Trump getting COVID, but the polls that count haven't changed a whole lot.
Biden needs to get to 270 electoral college votes.
With the blue states, and a few battleground states where he has a comfortable lead plus a democratic state legislature, he gets to 233.
He needs another 37 votes to reach 270.
There are 8 battleground states where he leads in the polls, but have a Republican legislature. Total votes = 135.
If Biden can win any combination with at least 37 votes, he gets at least 270. Biden wins.

Conversely, Trump has 170 votes from Red States, so needs another 100 votes to reach 270.
Trump needs to win at least 6 of these states to reach at least 270 and win.

The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points

Biden needs 37 to win, Trump needs 100 to win.

But with all the voter suppression tactics and sabotage at the post office,
too close to call.

[Ed Seedhouse]

I'm tied up working online all day, but someone has just emailed me the following. Hell, is this bloody true?!?!

"It turns out that he knew he was positive BEFORE he went to two different states and three social gatherings to campaign and raise money. Thus, he knew he might infect others but did not care, he was going to act like he was clean until and unless he became symptomatic. This is beyond evil and sick."

They've walked that timeline back, and as we all know they would never ever lie.

[Hans Jung]

In the magazine Zoomer November issue they have the article Decoding the older Brain - Biden vs Trump.