Can Biden win?

[Alvah Mayo]

Trump will win re-election. If not in the Electoral College, then by a 26-23 (as it now stands) vote in the House of Representatives or a 6-3 vote at the Supreme Court. Biden faces all the same hurdles Gore had in 2000 and he, like Gore, will be unable to "run the table".

[Bob Gillanders]

Can Biden win? 270 electoral college votes needed to win.

Total - lead > 7 points = 239 - lower limit
Total - lead > 5 points = 259 - add Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin
Biden need just 11 more votes.
Best chances - just needs one of:
Arizona 11
North Carolina 15
Pennsylvania 20

Total where Biden leads in polls - 305 - upper limit

[Bob Gillanders]

Just because something isn't intentional, doesn't mean it isn't happening. The biggest act of Democrat voter suppression is picking Joe Biden as the candidate rather than someone like Bernie Sanders who could actually communicate without lapsing into incoherent word salad.

Bernie Sanders is certainly a better communicator, but I have been pleasantly surprised by Joe Biden.
Maybe AOC will pick Bernie as her running mate in 2024.

[Vlad Drkulec]

The term "voter suppression" implies an intentional effort to suppress the vote. So it is good to see that you acknowledge that doesn't apply here. Asking people to wear masks to fight COVID in light of the global death toll is just good public health policy. Pretending it is all just a hoax, or that we can go back to normal before a vaccine is available, is dangerous.

Of course, voters have the option of voting by mail. But here, Trump appointed Postmaster General has taken steps to slow the mail service. Now that truly is voter suppression.

Just because something isn't intentional, doesn't mean it isn't happening. The biggest act of Democrat voter suppression is picking Joe Biden as the candidate rather than someone like Bernie Sanders who could actually communicate without lapsing into incoherent word salad.

[Bob Gillanders]

The Democrats are UNINTENTIONALLY suppressing the vote by scaring away their own voters who are more likely to be afraid of catching Covid because they believe they are in greater danger than they are.

The term "voter suppression" implies an intentional effort to suppress the vote. So it is good to see that you acknowledge that doesn't apply here. Asking people to wear masks to fight COVID in light of the global death toll is just good public health policy. Pretending it is all just a hoax, or that we can go back to normal before a vaccine is available, is dangerous.

Of course, voters have the option of voting by mail. But here, Trump appointed Postmaster General has taken steps to slow the mail service. Now that truly is voter suppression.

[Vlad Drkulec]

People are irrationally afraid of COVID in some cases. I am aware of people leaving jobs that pay fairly well and taking jobs as a janitor at half of their normal salary because they are afraid of public contact and catching COVID. It might make sense for someone older but we are talking very young people.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Vlad, I am trying to follow along with your logic. You are claiming that the Dems are suppressing the vote by scaring away voters from the polls with the whole COVID thing! Is that what you are saying?

The Democrats are UNINTENTIONALLY suppressing the vote by scaring away their own voters who are more likely to be afraid of catching Covid because they believe they are in greater danger than they are.

The death of RBG is going to be an interesting wild card in all this. I suspect that there are going to be many shoes to drop between now and November 3rd. Trump is going to have to fill that seat because the election will likely come down to the Supreme Court and a 4-4 decision just won't cut it.

[Bob Gillanders]

The greatest voter suppression is being carried out by the Dems and their media water carriers. Those who believe the Dems believe in the lockdowns and are afraid of getting covid. They will not vote if they think that it will lead to their deaths. Many of them think that way.

Vlad, I am trying to follow along with your logic. You are claiming that the Dems are suppressing the vote by scaring away voters from the polls with the whole COVID thing! Is that what you are saying?

[Vlad Drkulec]

Have I got a reasonable prediction here? Is there anything in the USA Constitution that would govern this? Are there any precedent USA Court Decisions from the past?

Bob A

No, this is not reasonable. Trump will win. It will not be close in the electoral college. The polls are undercounting Republican support because the Republicans don't trust pollsters.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Vlad, you are missing the main point of my posts. I do NOT have confidence that Biden will win. I am very critical of the polls, mainly because national polls are a waste of time since the votes are by state. According to my calculations, Biden gets to 258 if you believe the polls, but has trouble gets more than that. Which means that Trump wins. But an update, Maine, one of those 2 oddball states where not all the electoral college votes goes to 1 candidate, Biden nows leads by 9 points in that 1 district that goes Red. So now Biden should get to 259 okay. That is actually quite important because now 11 votes from Arizona now puts him over the top to 270. Yippee.

But even getting to the 259 is in jeopardy due to cheating by the Trump forces. Besides all the voting suppression tactics employed by the Republicans, add the efforts of the Postmaster General to slow down the mail, puts everything into jeopardy.

The greatest voter suppression is being carried out by the Dems and their media water carriers. Those who believe the Dems believe in the lockdowns and are afraid of getting covid. They will not vote if they think that it will lead to their deaths. Many of them think that way.

[Pargat Perrer]

Vlad, you are missing the main point of my posts. I do NOT have confidence that Biden will win. I am very critical of the polls, mainly because national polls are a waste of time since the votes are by state. According to my calculations, Biden gets to 258 if you believe the polls, but has trouble gets more than that. Which means that Trump wins. But an update, Maine, one of those 2 oddball states where not all the electoral college votes goes to 1 candidate, Biden nows leads by 9 points in that 1 district that goes Red. So now Biden should get to 259 okay. That is actually quite important because now 11 votes from Arizona now puts him over the top to 270. Yippee.

But even getting to the 259 is in jeopardy due to cheating by the Trump forces. Besides all the voting suppression tactics employed by the Republicans, add the efforts of the Postmaster General to slow down the mail, puts everything into jeopardy.

Bob, you were correct in an earlier post that I was fooled by the Democratic primaries into thinking that most states electoral college numbers were distributed according to the popular vote in that state. It only happens in the primaries like you said, except for Maine and Nebraska.

Joe Biden needs to get way beyond 270 to avoid Trump sitting in Joe's chair. The very worst scenario possible has Joe Biden getting exactly 270 electoral votes. Trump will NEVER allow that to stand.

By the way, there was a Supreme Court ruling this summer (just a few weeks ago I think) that prohibits Electoral College electors from voting from anyone else but who they are supposed to vote for. So that actual vote is now a true formality.

[Tony Boron]

According to marathonbet.com (my favorite betting site): Trump - 1.83, Biden - 2.02. Which reflects chances: Trump - about 54%. Biden - 46%.

It should be reflecting what the bookmaker believes what he needs to offer to balance his betting book.

[Bob Gillanders]

Hi Bob G:

I agree with your analysis ..... in 2016 I won a coffee bet by betting that Trump was going to win (I supported Hillary, but figured she was going to lose).

Wow, it must have taken at least 3 sugars to swallow that bitter coffee. I can predict a lost for the home team (aka. Toronto Maple Leafs) but I would never place a bet.
I got the 2016 election wrong, although I did sit on the fence until the last minute. I figured Hilary would win at least a couple of close races, but didn't.

Anyway, a few comments about your 2020 scenario. Although all the idiot media people blather away and declare so and so a winner, it ain't so. Each state actually gives the vote to electoral college voters, actual real people who support the winning candidate. Each state has so many days (it varies) to certify the results and select the electoral college voters. Then sometime in December, the electoral college voters actually vote. Again various rules apply depending on state laws, but in some cases they are free to change their votes.

The President's term does not end until January 20 of the next year at NOON. So Trump is still President until Noon on Jan 20, 2021.

[Bob Armstrong]

Hi Bob G:

I agree with your analysis ..... in 2016 I won a coffee bet by betting that Trump was going to win (I supported Hillary, but figured she was going to lose).

This year I'm still leaving my bet on Trump on the table, though I do think it is dicier for him with Biden, and the events since 2016, than it was with Hillary.

But here's my over-riding concern:

1. Biden wins the Electoral College Vote;
2. Trump refuses to concede, claims voter fraud, and launches a court action to get a ruling the election results are nullified.
3. While the court dithers, Trump claims Presidential Privilege to continue as President until the court ruling.
4. Biden counter-claims that the results are adequately supported, and that as putative winner, he should take over the presidency right away.
5. The right and left citizen groups square off in the streets, and it is not going to be pretty.

Have I got a reasonable prediction here? Is there anything in the USA Constitution that would govern this? Are there any precedent USA Court Decisions from the past?

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

You can disagree with my comments but when Trump wins remember that I predicted it when your polls said Biden was leading by double digits. There are not 29% more Democrats. Do you really think that Biden is going to hang on by holding rallies with six media members versus Trump's thousands.

Vlad, you are missing the main point of my posts. I do NOT have confidence that Biden will win. I am very critical of the polls, mainly because national polls are a waste of time since the votes are by state. According to my calculations, Biden gets to 258 if you believe the polls, but has trouble gets more than that. Which means that Trump wins. But an update, Maine, one of those 2 oddball states where not all the electoral college votes goes to 1 candidate, Biden nows leads by 9 points in that 1 district that goes Red. So now Biden should get to 259 okay. That is actually quite important because now 11 votes from Arizona now puts him over the top to 270. Yippee.

But even getting to the 259 is in jeopardy due to cheating by the Trump forces. Besides all the voting suppression tactics employed by the Republicans, add the efforts of the Postmaster General to slow down the mail, puts everything into jeopardy.