Can Biden win?

[Vlad Drkulec]

Maybe that's because there are 29% more Democrats than Republicans. LOL

Anyway, it goes without saying I disagree with all of your comments.

I would like to see them both on Joe Rogan.

You can disagree with my comments but when Trump wins remember that I predicted it when your polls said Biden was leading by double digits. There are not 29% more Democrats. Do you really think that Biden is going to hang on by holding rallies with six media members versus Trump's thousands.

[Lucas Davies]

'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/f...an-republicans

In 2016, aggregate polling had Hillary up by 3.2 points. She won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Polling was accurate to within 1.1 points: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...491.html#polls

"Newcomers to polling sometimes assume that if you are asking Americans questions about politics, it’s only fair to include an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. While this notion makes some sense on the surface, it’s based on a misunderstanding of what polling is intended to do. The goal of a national political survey isn’t to artificially even the playing field. It’s to represent groups in their actual proportions within the country. And a wide range of evidence shows that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States today.

Gold-standard, nonpartisan surveys have found for decades that more U.S. adults identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party than the Republican Party – whether these surveys take place under GOP or Democratic presidential administrations. That is the finding of two of the highest-quality surveys that use nationally representative data collected through in-person interviews: the General Social Survey and the American National Election Studies. It’s also the result obtained by numerous other reputable surveys that poll Americans by telephone or online using randomly selected samples of adults, including those done by us here at Pew Research Center, as well as those done by Gallup, Fox News, Kaiser Family Foundation and The Associated Press-NORC."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...and-democrats/

Here are the most recent polls for which I can find the demographic data:

The latest Gallup poll had Trump's approval at -14 with 29% Democrats and 33% Republicans: https://news.gallup.com/poll/320303/...-approval.aspx

The latest Politico/Morning Consulst had Trump's approval at -22 with 49% Democrats and 36% Republicans: https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp..._RVs_v1_LM.pdf

The latest Reuters/Ipsos had Trump's approval at -14 with 47% Democrats and 37% Republicans: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/...09_16_2020.pdf

The latest CNBC had Trump at -10 approval with 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans: https://changeresearch.com/wp-conten...-13_-9_4-6.pdf

This Washingtonexaminer link seems to support only two polls because they only poll likely voters. Rasmussen only shows its demographics to people who pay for it, and McLaughlin has Trump's approval at -5. The latest Quinnipiac poll only polls likely voters (although it doesn't appear to have demographic information), and has Trump's approval at -10, which is 1 point worse than the aggregate: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/u...020_udmp37.pdf

Across these 5 polls with demographic information, there's an average of 41.2% Democrats and 36% Republicans, with an average approval of -13. That's actually worse than the aggregate, and even if you were to even out the number of Democrats and Republicans, it'd still be around the same as the aggregate. Does this actually mean anything? No, it's just some data that I found from looking at a few of the most recent polls. Would I ever cite this as proof of anything regarding polling in general? No, because looking at a few polls and ignoring hundreds of others would be an absurd methodology that only someone who wants to reach a specific conclusion would do.

Also, it says that there's an 8 point difference compared to if there were an equal number of Democrats and Republicans: "Among the general public, recent Pew Research Center telephone surveys find that Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents outnumber Republicans and Republican leaners by about 7 percentage points, similar to what the 2018 General Social Survey found." Hmm, I wonder why they found that number when looking at polls that use random sampling...

As an aside, the most recent Fox News poll showed that whether you're a Democrat, Republican, approve or disapprove of Trump, likeliness to avoid voting due to COVID concerns is basically identical across the board: https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.c...13-Release.pdf

[Kerry Liles]

Maybe that's because there are 29% more Democrats than Republicans. LOL

Anyway, it goes without saying I disagree with all of your comments.

I would like to see them both on Joe Rogan.

I would only like to see a debate if Daniel Dale does real time fact checking. On Twitter today someone suggested that they show Dale in a Picture-in-a-picture overlay with him holding one of two signs: truth or lie - raising the appropriate sign whenever some statement is made. I don't know if he can fact check that quickly (real time) but that sure would set the stage.
He has been fact checking Trump for years and I believe has extended that to Biden and Harris when their ticket was announced...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...es/ar-BB18vTaM

[Bob Gillanders]

'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/f...an-republicans

Maybe that's because there are 29% more Democrats than Republicans. LOL

Anyway, it goes without saying I disagree with all of your comments.

I would like to see them both on Joe Rogan.

[Vlad Drkulec]

'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/f...an-republicans

[Vlad Drkulec]

You can't burn down people's cities and businesses and have your campaign bail out the rioters and think that people won't notice and won't be annoyed by the party encouraging this lawlessness.

Even Al Sharpton is reigning in the defund the police talk.

[Vlad Drkulec]

You are claiming there is a bias of 7 points in the polls? Well, I hope that is not true.
If we predict Biden wins only where he has a >7 point lead, then results are Trump 296, Biden 242.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_sep16

Trump has taken the lead according to Rasmussen today.

That is overall. Swing states are worse. Biden had better do that Joe Rogan debate.

There is still a lot of campaigning left to do and Biden does not seem to have the energy for it.

[Victor Plotkin]

According to marathonbet.com (my favorite betting site): Trump - 1.83, Biden - 2.02. Which reflects chances: Trump - about 54%. Biden - 46%.

[Bob Gillanders]

North Carolina is a toss-up. It was Trump +2 yesterday, well within the margin of error and remember the polls under count Republican voters. Anywhere where Trump is -7 should probably be seen as a toss-up.

You are claiming there is a bias of 7 points in the polls? Well, I hope that is not true.
If we predict Biden wins only where he has a >7 point lead, then results are Trump 296, Biden 242.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Checking the polls today, I see not much has changed.
Biden should have 258 votes but needs another 12 votes to win.
Biden leads in
Arizona 5.0
North Carolina 1.0
Pennsylvania 4.9

So if he can win in either North Carolina or Pennsylvania, that is enough to win.

But now we have the horror scenario of the Red Mirage.
Trump appears to have a big lead on election night since most of the mail in ballots are not counted yet.
He will try and shut down the count ASAP and claim victory.
It could take several days for the true results to appear. Expect some civil unrest during that process.

I wonder what will be effect of the Bob Woodward book Rage?
I wonder what other surprises are down the road.

North Carolina is a toss-up. It was Trump +2 yesterday, well within the margin of error and remember the polls under count Republican voters. Anywhere where Trump is -7 should probably be seen as a toss-up.

[Vlad Drkulec]

The outraged people in New York and Los Angeles will read Rage which won't change their anti-Trump vote. The drooling Trump fans won't read Rage. All the partisan media won't effect either side's core voters/states. What will swing the swing states? Getting people who didn't vote last time to care enough this time to get registered as a voter and vote. And many of them don't follow much news media; they listen to family, friends and co-workers (if have any). Many won't register/vote because scared of Covid, as well as being disappointed/cynical about both Capitalist parties. And Biden isn't the inspirational visionary that will get them to jump up and wave the flag.

Democrats are more scared of Covid than Republicans.There will be an element of the radicals that will want Biden to lose as a lesson to the moderates that you can't win with a moderate, no matter how woke he pretends to be.

[Erik Malmsten]

Checking the polls today, I see not much has changed.
Biden should have 258 votes but needs another 12 votes to win.
Biden leads in
Arizona 5.0
North Carolina 1.0
Pennsylvania 4.9

So if he can win in either North Carolina or Pennsylvania, that is enough to win.

But now we have the horror scenario of the Red Mirage.
Trump appears to have a big lead on election night since most of the mail in ballots are not counted yet.
He will try and shut down the count ASAP and claim victory.
It could take several days for the true results to appear. Expect some civil unrest during that process.

I wonder what will be effect of the Bob Woodward book Rage?
I wonder what other surprises are down the road.

The outraged people in New York and Los Angeles will read Rage which won't change their anti-Trump vote. The drooling Trump fans won't read Rage. All the partisan media won't effect either side's core voters/states. What will swing the swing states? Getting people who didn't vote last time to care enough this time to get registered as a voter and vote. And many of them don't follow much news media; they listen to family, friends and co-workers (if have any). Many won't register/vote because scared of Covid, as well as being disappointed/cynical about both Capitalist parties. And Biden isn't the inspirational visionary that will get them to jump up and wave the flag.

[Bob Gillanders]

Total - 258 votes

He still needs 12 votes to win.

What's left?

Arizona - 11 votes
North Carolina - 15 votes
Pennsylvania - 20 votes
Florida - 29 votes
Georgia - 16 votes
Ohio - 18 votes

Checking the polls today, I see not much has changed.
Biden should have 258 votes but needs another 12 votes to win.
Biden leads in
Arizona 5.0
North Carolina 1.0
Pennsylvania 4.9

So if he can win in either North Carolina or Pennsylvania, that is enough to win.

But now we have the horror scenario of the Red Mirage.
Trump appears to have a big lead on election night since most of the mail in ballots are not counted yet.
He will try and shut down the count ASAP and claim victory.
It could take several days for the true results to appear. Expect some civil unrest during that process.

I wonder what will be effect of the Bob Woodward book Rage?
I wonder what other surprises are down the road.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Are you referring to the Left Behind series of books?

In that one, the good people disappear.

The whole premise is based on misreading scripture.

[Brad Thomson]

The Jehovah's Witnesses believe that the "beast" in the book of Revelation represents the United Nations. They also believe that America represents the revival of the Roman Empire and the 7th and final world power that the Bible speaks of. I do not think they commit to the Antichrist being one person or simply referring to the general rise of anti-Christian sentiments in these "end times" in which we according to their interpretation live. They also speak of a seven-year "tribulation" period that is of our own doing before big Jehovah drops Armageddon onto our heads. At this time the current system controlled by Satan, that is economy, politics and all false religions, will be toppled and replaced by a "new world order", the millennial reign of Christ. But the fun is not over yet, for after the 1,000 years during which we perfect ourselves Satan gets another crack at us before finally we all live not in heaven but on a paradise earth, assuming we pass the final temptation, with the exception of the 144,000 who live upstairs...

To avoid any possible jumps to conclusions, please be advised that I am absolutely NOT a Jehovah's Witness, NOR even any kind of Christian, NOR religious in any sense of the term. In my opinion the sooner mankind abolishes all religions the sooner we will have a chance to survive on earth without intolerance, hatred, bigotry and so forth.