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Dan Smith (the chess player and professional gambler) had Timex on the hook for a bet: that Timex could not achieve the GM title. Timex was only asking for 10-1 odds on this, though for an eye watering amount of money (400K vs 4M). Timex would pay the 400K immediately, and if he ever achieved the GM title, would come back to Dan for his payment of $4.4M.
Some minor notes to prevent expected questions:
My understanding is Timex is about 1600 strength but not a very experienced tournament player and has not devoted a great deal of study to chess.
My understanding is Timex is about 30 years old.
It would be assumed the GM title would have to be achieved fairly; timex cannot go to a third world country and pay GMs to throw games to him to get norms
I'll assume not many of us are comfortable putting even a theoretical 4.4m at risk, no matter how confident we were of winning. Let's say that you were willing to lose $1000 on this. How much is the minimum you'd ask to be prepaid; ie, would you take $100 from Timex with the understanding if he ever became a GM you'd have to pay him $1000? $10? $1? A penny? A signed photo of Timex?
Dan Smith (the chess player and professional gambler) had Timex on the hook for a bet: that Timex could not achieve the GM title. Timex was only asking for 10-1 odds on this, though for an eye watering amount of money (400K vs 4M). Timex would pay the 400K immediately, and if he ever achieved the GM title, would come back to Dan for his payment of $4.4M.
Some minor notes to prevent expected questions:
My understanding is Timex is about 1600 strength but not a very experienced tournament player and has not devoted a great deal of study to chess.
My understanding is Timex is about 30 years old.
It would be assumed the GM title would have to be achieved fairly; timex cannot go to a third world country and pay GMs to throw games to him to get norms
I'll assume not many of us are comfortable putting even a theoretical 4.4m at risk, no matter how confident we were of winning. Let's say that you were willing to lose $1000 on this. How much is the minimum you'd ask to be prepaid; ie, would you take $100 from Timex with the understanding if he ever became a GM you'd have to pay him $1000? $10? $1? A penny? A signed photo of Timex?
I would be surprised if he had a 1% chance of becoming a GM even with world class training. I'd take $10.
To become an IM would be significantly better chances. I don't know him, but 10+% seems possible for someone who has become world class in at least a slightly related field. There's at least one Shogi world-class player who is an IM.
He's a favourite to become an NM, I think.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
Interesting. I had forgotten who Timex was but now that I know I hope he tries for it. Would have to reach 2300 and then 5 years submersion in grandmaster culture. Alot of study and maybe even more unlearning. What 30 year old will honestly dedicate himself that long to achieving the title? Maybe Mike. Its a long road for sure.
I would think the odds should be more like 100 to 1, but then again, I did not think Mike would would the basketball bet! (make at least 90 out of 100 free throw attempts).
Good luck Mike and I am here to coach you for a reasonable fee:)
I must admit I'm surprised by some of the responses.
I considered GM to be flatly impossible unless he's just the next Magnus Carlsen who never happened to pick up chess; there are people with immense gifts for the game who devoted their lives to it from a very early age who couldn't make it, and there are numbers in this thread being bandied about like "maybe 100-1" for a 30 year old who's never studied that seriously. TBH I think his literal best hope would be that chess is solved in his lifetime, and becoming a GM becomes nothing more than being able to demonstrate a mastery of the solution that can be memorized.
I considered IM to be a very long shot, probably on the order of at least 5000-1. Same exact reasons - I started playing later than normal (around 18) and had what I deemed an above average talent for the game, and by the time I reached NM, I knew it would be extremely difficult for me to even reach IM, if possible at all.
NM is the interesting one for me. I suggested that if he wanted a bet more like his freethrow bet, he put it out there that he could achieve then NM or maybe FM title within 1 year, and ask for 10-1 odds. It's at that point I think the bet gets interesting.
I must admit I'm surprised by some of the responses.
I considered GM to be flatly impossible
By his tweet he even thinks that is a fail.
"I'm about 95% sure I'm going to back down from this chess bet. I suppose the few issues are: 1) I probably will fail. That said I think I'm way less likely to fail than everyone I've spoken to."
"I'm about 95% sure I'm going to back down from this chess bet. I suppose the few issues are: 1) I probably will fail. That said I think I'm way less likely to fail than everyone I've spoken to."
David, will you accept the bet? :)
If I had 4M to keep set aside, I sure would. Alas...
"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
"Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
"If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey
Does anyone happen to know of an English-speaking (or French) player who was at least 1600-1800 after the age of 55, and rose to 2000-2200 FIDE? I've never heard of anyone pulling that off!
Does anyone happen to know of an English-speaking (or French) player who was at least 1600-1800 after the age of 55, and rose to 2000-2200 FIDE? I've never heard of anyone pulling that off!
The only adult I can think of who made a big leap to NM is Matthew Nicholson. Judging by his CFC ID #, though, he did it in his 20s. If I remember correctly, he has very high physical energy with great posture much like yourself.
I would be interested to hear his thoughts on adult improvement.
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