CFC Rating Stats: Adult Members Av./Junior Memb. Av.

[Neil Frarey]

My CFC Ratings Questions

Here is what I have so far:

Total CFC Paid-Up Members: 2,547 (22/5/1 Stats)

Adults: 1,571
Juniors: 976

Are those the total number of CFC paid-up members in all of Toronto ... or for all of Canada?

[Peter McKillop]

This and other kinds of manipulation should be easy enough with Microsoft Excel or something. Key is proper sorting to minimize the amount of math. Used to do this all the time, 20 years ago.

Oh yeah, it's ridiculously easy. I used to do this crap all the time, sixty years ago. All you need is a Burroughs adding machine and a slide rule.

[Bob Armstrong]

Hi Neil:

All of Canada - see my post # 16 on the thread: Chess by age in Canada using FIDE data - no one corrected them.

Bob A

[Neil Frarey]

Hi Neil:

All of Canada - see my post # 16 on the thread: Chess by age in Canada using FIDE data - no one corrected them.

Bob A

Hey Bob, thanks!

So, congrats to the inept CFC for signing up 0.00653594771% of the Canadian population.

Amazing effort.

[Bob Armstrong]

Sorry guys/gals - I didn't intend this to become a CFC bashing session (But Neil is entitled to his opinion, based on what evidence seems relevant to him; and I am not claiming he is high-jacking my thread........surely, among friends, we have thick skins!)

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

Sorry guys/gals - I didn't intend this to become a CFC bashing session (But Neil is entitled to his opinion, based on what evidence seems relevant to him; and I am not claiming he is high-jacking my thread........surely, among friends, we have thick skins!)

Bob A

That's okay Bob, but I encourage you to post on the CFC forum instead. You do have posting rights, I assume.

You might have noticed that I posted the new membership numbers on CFC forum, without fanfare or commentary.
I was curious to see the response. I must say it was underwhelming. Thanks to Egis who noticed and posted, but he was the only one.
When a 59% increase in membership goes almost unnoticed, it really does test that thick skin.

Fortunately there were a number of positive emails from CFC colleagues. Thank you.

But back to the question of ratings. We have a good group looking into the rating deflation question.
Further analysis to come, but lets do that on CFC forum, not here.

[Bob Armstrong]

Thanks Bob G.

It seems a good suggestion to also seek an understanding of the availability of info from CFC's stats at the CFC Forum.

Bob A

[Bob Armstrong]

Hi Roger:

Finally got some time back on-line..........

I agree with respect to newbies with provisional ratings.

Many groups can be compared, but some comparisons are not relevant, or not logical.

I wanted a simple comparison: For May 1, 2023 fully paid up members (Including those in non-paying categories):

The average rating of the pool of adults vs the average rating of the pool of juniors.

Does anyone know how to do this with the existing list of members, and the rating data base?

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

I wanted a simple comparison: For May 1, 2023 fully paid up members (Including those in non-paying categories):
The average rating of the pool of adults vs the average rating of the pool of juniors.

Bob, have I not given at least a partial answer to your quest in post #2?

I have reposted it on the CFC forum in hopes you move this topic there.

[Bob Armstrong]

Sorry Bob G ......... I'll look again at Post # 2 here, and I'll check the CFC forum thread.

Bob A

[Bob Armstrong]

Does Bob G's Post # 2 help with my Questions?

1. What is the average rating of the adult paid-up member pool?
2. What is the average rating of the junior paid-up member (U 20) pool?

A. Unfortunately Bob G has divided each of the two pools into two parts: Pre-COVID; Post-COVID.
Also, Bob G has split the adults into 2 groups: Adults; Seniors.
Without knowing the total number in each group, we cannot just join the groups as Bob G has counted them and calculate a correct average for my 2 pools.

B. Also, Bob G includes fewer members in his calculations than I want: All paid-up adults (Including those in Family, Honorary, Life, etc.); all junior members (Including in Family membership). I would exclude members due to only tournament memberships. I would exclude those with only provisional ratings, since they are generally lower earlier on that when the permanent rating is finally calculated.

Bob G stated:

To get to a reasonable stable base, I am including only:

1. Members with annual memberships (excluding tournament fee and life members).
2. Established regular ratings only.
3. We have a date of birth in database

C. Lastly in my Post # 16, in the thread "Chess by Age Using FIDE data", I deal with estimating membership of my 2 pools using old CFC stats (May, 2022):

My CFC Member Calculation (22/5/1 CFC Stats - the May, 2023 stats were not available when I did this)

Total Membership - 2,547

1. Adults - 1,571

Adult - 968
Life - 503 (Assuming most adult)
Honorary - 86 (Assuming most adult)
Family - 14 (Assuming 2 members per family; assuming 1 adult & 1 Junior)
Total - 1,571

2. Junior (U 20 y.o.) - 976 (Approx. 40 % of total membership)

Junior - 962
Family - 14 (Assuming 2 members per family; assuming 1 adult & 1 Junior)
Total - 976

So my two questions are still unanswered.

Bob A

P.S. I have to go off-line, but will re-post this on the CFC Forum the next chance I get.

[Bob Gillanders]

So my two questions are still unanswered.

Bob A

P.S. I have to go off-line, but will re-post this on the CFC Forum the next chance I get.

Hey Bob, I will keep your comments in mind when I visit these calculations again on the CFC forum.

[Bob Armstrong]

I have now posted my post # 26 above in the CFC Forum.

So........now my 2 Questions.......are unanswered on two discussion boards!

I do ask tough questions!

Bob A

[Bob Armstrong]

Bumping - no reply yet either on the CFC Forum.....

Bob A

[Fred Henderson]

If you want something that is "statistically valid", I have some doubts about your sample size and selection methods. But if you want a reason for the lower ratings among the newest crop of juniors, perhaps more likely is that people are jumping on the Queen's Gambit bandwagon, without due attention to proper training, whereas previous crops were smaller and mostly graduates of chess 'n math or Chess Academy of Canada.

Just a guess.


That's what happens when you get people involved in promoting chess, like CBC writers, who obviously know nothing of the game.