Future world champ?

[John Coleman]

From the BBC, an 8 year old girl has a FIDE rating of 2185

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3g6e653wrlo

[Hans Jung]

Long way from 2200 to world champ. Although she could win world championship under 10 or under 12 or under 16 or under 18. She has great potential and she is getting good press.

[Erik Malmsten]

Although most of today's grandmasters reached 2200 at a young age, I dont think we can say the reverse, that all children who reach 2200 will become grandmasters. I would like to see a list from 10 years ago of children rated 2200 and how many became grandnasters.

[Hans Jung]

Although most of today's grandmasters reached 2200 at a young age, I dont think we can say the reverse, that all children who reach 2200 will become grandmasters. I would like to see a list from 10 years ago of children rated 2200 and how many became grandnasters.

That indeed would be interesting to see.

[Egidijus Zeromskis]

Although most of today's grandmasters reached 2200 at a young age, I dont think we can say the reverse, that all children who reach 2200 will become grandmasters. I would like to see a list from 10 years ago of children rated 2200 and how many became grandnasters.

An interesting question.

FIDE has old rating databases at https://ratings.fide.com/download_lists.phtml
Oldest to download is 2015 February.

In that database there are 2080 players who were born in or after 2000 (makes roughly 15 years old) and who has already reached 2200 rating.

The database is questionable as it shows current titles. Thus whatever that means there are 144 GM on that list with >2000 birth year.

Like 46622373 Prraneeth Vuppala IND M GM 2432 11 10 2007 (https://ratings.fide.com/profile/46622373 ) got a title only 2023. (the kid last on the list)


Top-GM-30 in that list >= 2000 b.y.

fideid name country sex title w_title o_title foa_title rating games k birthday
35009192 Erigaisi Arjun IND M GM 2778 18 10 2003
14204118 Abdusattorov, Nodirbek UZB M GM 2769 9 10 2004
46616543 Gukesh D IND M GM 2763 0 10 2006
25059530 Praggnanandhaa R IND M GM 2757 10 10 2005
12573981 Firouzja, Alireza FRA M GM 2744 10 10 2003
12539929 Maghsoodloo, Parham IRI M GM 2725 18 10 2000
12940690 Keymer, Vincent GER M GM 2721 0 10 2004
12521213 Tabatabaei, M. Amin IRI M GM 2718 20 10 2001
24133795 Sarana, Alexey SRB M GM 2717 27 10 2000
2093596 Niemann, Hans Moke USA M GM 2703 11 10 2003
2040506 Sevian, Samuel USA M GM 2689 9 10 2000
1226380 Deac, Bogdan-Daniel ROU M GM 2683 9 10 2001
25092340 Nihal Sarin IND M GM 2682 9 10 2004
14205483 Sindarov, Javokhir UZB M GM 2674 9 10 2005
14129574 Shevchenko, Kirill ROU M GM 2672 8 10 2002
24175439 Esipenko, Andrey FID M GM 2671 9 10 2002
1048104 Warmerdam, Max NED M GM 2663 9 10 2000
13306553 Martirosyan, Haik M. ARM M GM 2661 18 10 2000
1444948 Bjerre, Jonas Buhl DEN M GM 2653 0 10 2004
13306766 Sargsyan, Shant ARM M GM 2649 18 10 2002
2056437 Liang, Awonder USA M GM 2648 11 10 2003
14203987 Yakubboev, Nodirbek UZB M GM 2648 18 10 2002
358878 Nguyen, Thai Dai Van CZE M GM 2647 0 10 2001
2047640 Xiong, Jeffery USA M GM 2646 11 10 2000
35093487 Sadhwani, Raunak IND M GM 2644 9 10 2005
14204223 Vokhidov, Shamsiddin UZB M GM 2643 9 10 2002
44155573 Murzin, Volodar FID M GM 2637 9 10 2006
12923044 Svane, Frederik GER M GM 2636 18 10 2004
5061245 Puranik, Abhimanyu IND M GM 2634 9 10 2000
5084423 Aryan Chopra IND M GM 2632 9 10 2001


Bottom-30-GM

35007394 Raja Rithvik R IND M GM 2511 0 10 2004
13905465 Schitco, Ivan MDA M GM 2511 0 10 2003
35018701 Arjun Kalyan IND M GM 2509 0 10 2002
10613129 Fawzy, Adham EGY M GM 2509 0 10 2000
4430492 Cardoso Cardoso, Jose Gabriel COL M GM 2507 11 10 2004
24183750 Lobanov, Sergei FID M GM 2506 9 10 2001
13404938 Gadimbayli, Abdulla AZE M GM 2505 0 10 2002
2064871 Balakrishnan, Praveen USA M GM 2503 18 10 2002
4229274 Ioannidis, Evgenios GRE M GM 2501 9 10 2001
2308649 Stefansson, Vignir Vatnar ISL M GM 2500 15 10 2003
2620049 Rodrigue-Lemieux, Shawn CAN M GM 2499 11 10 2004
2921642 Petkov, Momchil BUL M GM 2497 9 10 2005
14618583 Subelj, Jan SLO M GM 2494 11 10 2004
13308300 Gharibyan, Mamikon ARM M GM 2492 11 10 2004
13707833 Suleymenov, Alisher KAZ M GM 2488 9 10 2000
5091756 Vaishali, Rameshbabu IND F GM WGM 2488 10 10 2001
4437128 Avila Pavas, Santiago COL M GM 2485 11 10 2004
5089000 Raja Harshit IND M GM 2483 22 10 2001
13413007 Ahmadzada, Ahmad AZE M GM 2481 0 10 2004
12513342 Gholami, Aryan IRI M GM 2481 0 10 2001
2090759 Daggupati, Balaji USA M GM 2480 9 10 2005
960047 Budisavljevic, Luka SRB M GM FT 2478 11 10 2004
32080190 Gines Esteo, Pedro Antonio ESP M GM 2477 0 10 2004
2057360 Sheng, Joshua USA M GM FT 2474 0 10 2000
25059653 Rahul Srivatshav P IND M GM 2473 15 10 2002
8608059 Zhu, Jiner CHN F GM WGM 2469 9 10 2002
13703544 Abdumalik, Zhansaya KAZ F GM WGM 2468 0 10 2000
35080580 Samant Aditya S IND M GM 2467 11 10 2006
46618546 Prithu Gupta IND M GM 2440 0 10 2004
46622373 Prraneeth Vuppala IND M GM 2432 11 10 2007

[Erik Malmsten]

Great data Egis.

So out of 2,080 kids who reached 2200 FIDE, only 144 became grandmasters. That's only 7%. So maybe people should not make wild predictions of kids becoming future world champions. It may also have a negative effect of putting pressure on the child and taking time away from other enjoyable activities. I suspect that over half are inactive today in FIDE chess.

[Egidijus Zeromskis]

Great data Egis.

So out of 2,080 kids who reached 2200 FIDE, only 144 became grandmasters. That's only 7%. So maybe people should not make wild predictions of kids becoming future world champions. It may also have a negative effect of putting pressure on the child and taking time away from other enjoyable activities. I suspect that over half are inactive today in FIDE chess.

I thought that was a such huge number (7% or 144 GM). I was expecting much less.

What percentage of the population have a PhD? On average, only 1 per cent of the world's 25-64 year olds who have been to university, have a PhD

If consider 2200 a university, 7% is quite great number :)



As for active or not -- maybe next time. It should be not a difficult task to figure out as the FIDE database has "i" (inactive) label.