Chess Variant hypothetical

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  • Chess Variant hypothetical

    I saw this question online somewhere and have been thinking a lot about it.

    Random 1000 rated player is going to play a game against Magnus Carlsen.

    Magnus has only one win condition: get X queens on the board. If he checkmates random player, it's stalemate.
    Random player has two win conditions: checkmate, or eliminate the possibilty of getting X queens on the board (eg, if X is 5, he wins when Magnus has either 4p, or 3p+Q, so he cannot reach the 5 queens necessary to win).

    What would X be in this scenario before you'd bet on the random player to win?
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