THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

[Paul Bonham]

I'm jumping the gun on Gary Ruben.

In view of today's 500+ point drop in the Dow Industrials, equally bad drop in S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and even WORSE drops in the major European bourses...

Greek default is a done deal. Ireland bondholders to take haircut. Italy on verge of default.... is far too big to bail out. All this means a bloodbath for major French, German banks, spreading the contagion to the whole world. Libor lending rates to once again, as in 2008 / 2009, freeze up interbank lending. This time no U.S. government intervention, thank you Mr "I got 98% of what I wanted... I'm happy" John Boehner. I mentioned gold many months ago now, there is still time to exchange your fiat currency / toilet paper (at now much higher prices).

A couple of topics to ruminate on:

(1) "All the King's Horses, and All the King's Men, Couldn't Put the Euro Back Together Again"? Extravagant European chess events to become extinct?

(2) Mark Bluvshtein going into investment banking.... the very industry that will take the worst beating in the coming downturn? Smart move?

(3) Those Republicans who Republicans don't Republicans learn Republicans from Republicans history (1930's) Republicans are Republicans doomed Republicans to Republicans repeat it Republicans repeat it Republicans repeat it Republicans repeat it....

(4) Mayan end-of-time calendar (December 21 2012). Very interesting conjecture going on: The Mayan calendar possibly isn't warning about the end of "time", even though it appears to be. Apparently the Mayans had no way to conceptualize "money", because they bartered (cocoa, salt, etc.). They had no currency. But in their vision of these times, they foresaw that money is time. Therefore their calendar, and specifically the end date, isn't a warning about the end of time but about the end of MONEY, conceptualized as time. Therefore the Mayan message to us is: on December 21st 2012, money... fiat currency....banking... will cease to exist. All exchanges after that will be exclusively barter. Everything that is happening now would appear to lend credence to this? Time to stock up, including guns and ammo?

(5) Asian reaction to (4)... What will China / North Korea do? Japan to wither and die? U.S. to withdraw from Asian altogether, protect only its own borders?

(6) Israel to preemptively attack Iran? At roughly same time, Iran to preemptively attack Saudia Arabia, take over Saudi oil fields?

(7) Does the saving of the NFL season (a) slow down, (b) speed up, (c) have no effect on coming economic collapse?

(8) In the midst of ALL THE ABOVE, Ben Daswani to still be asking where will Kovalchuk end up?

[Duncan Smith]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

Markets almost always retraces in the summer, its all overdone and an excellent buying opportunity on valuation plays moving forward. Just let the market consolidate then jump in.

Earnings story will come back into play in the fall.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

Kovalchuk won't be on any of my fantasy teams this winter.

I see a lot of fear in the markets and there are too many lost jobs. Corporate profits haven't looked too bad, at least not those companies I follow. A couple of speculative ones aren't good. I've done a bit of bottom fishing. Probably be losers for me. I haven't been buying any Spanish bonds. :) Depression might be a bit strong.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

... Depression might be a bit strong.

Yeah, the last Depression actually became known as the Great Recession. Which we never really got out of, there was just a bunch of government (i.e. taxpayer) money thrown at the problem in the hope it would go away.

It's not going to go away. For one thing, the Tea Party is so obsessed with beating Obama. They'll burn the house down to get rid of the bedbugs.

Big week for Europe: will Germany foot the bill for Italy?

[Duncan Smith]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

You're wrong, we aren't even in a recession right now. I suppose you can buy some more new Apple products to swap stories about the Depression you think we are in.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

You're wrong, we aren't even in a recession right now. I suppose you can buy some more new Apple products to swap stories about the Depression you think we are in.

Hey, Duncan, you're the curling guy, right? Well, hey, don't take your stock losses out on me. I supported you on that chess / curling thread, remember?

It's not the Depression I think we are in.... it's the Great Recession we never left. There was just a pregnant pause, thanks to the guberment. Now, we're resuming the inevitable cycle downward.

Asia tumbling, Dow, S&P futures down sharply. Fed will have to step up to the plate STRONGLY... will even that help? This entire week may very well go down in history. Human nature still exists as always. Once panic sets in, it's like melting ice: drip... drip.... drip drip.... drip drip drip.... SLOSH!.

On the other hand, Canada may do very well in curling this coming winter.

Apple products??? You mean, like the byePod or the dryPad or the whyPhone? Oh, we're saved! Ignore those riots in the UK!

[Duncan Smith]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

I believe we are still in a longer term bull market that will test the all time highs before it is done. Anyone selling equities right now will regret it by December.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

It's not going to go away. For one thing, the Tea Party is so obsessed with beating Obama. They'll burn the house down to get rid of the bedbugs.

Big week for Europe: will Germany foot the bill for Italy?

Yeah. Bad day yesterday. President Obama was on TV trying to calm the nation but he looked very uncomfortable. What I call "sweating out loud". Anyhow, I'm not an American so am waiting for our Prime Minister to tell me when it's time to buy stocks, again. :-)

Anyhow, S&P sees the U.S. credit rating on a par with New Zealand and, I think, Lichtenstein (wherever that is).

You make a point about the Tea Party, I guess. It's not the U.S. can't pay the debts. I think what's being said is they won't do what's necessary. They have room to increase taxes but won't. A lot of expensive initiatives (without naming them as you know) and no real will to pay for them. A recipe for a nations debt to not be very desirable.

I don't know what will happen with Italy. The future for the Euro doesn't look that bright to me. At least not with all the present member nations still in the Eurozone.

By the way, I'm not a gold bug. I've never seen anyone buy anything in a store using gold as a currency. That wasn't the case around 1900 and the gold rush times, so I can see the value of the metal then more readily than I can see it now.

[Emil Smilovici]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

Lichtenstein (wherever that is).

It's a landlocked principality between Austria and Switzerland.
Once I met a guy from Vaduz (working in a bank - of course) on a boat trip on the Lake Titicaca.

.... nothing to do with pop art ...

[John Henry]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

I am SMILING!!!! My Gold stocks are up up!!!!Buy Gold/Silver-the HARD stuff too and you will be smiling as well!!!!!:)JJ Henry,Senior Instructor C&M,Broker etc. etc.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

Thank you. I've always wondered and never looked it up.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

I am SMILING!!!! My Gold stocks are up up!!!!Buy Gold/Silver-the HARD stuff too and you will be smiling as well!!!!!:)JJ Henry,Senior Instructor C&M,Broker etc. etc.

Mine went up and I sold them both. Then they went down and I bought them back. Then they went up and I sold them again and now hold no gold stocks.

I have silver shorted. Don't ask... My timing was lousy. But now silver is dropping quite nicely and I still have the ETF. I consider silver to be a parasite which feeds on gold. :)

[John Henry]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

My success over the years-buy and hold!!! It works!!!!

[Paul Bonham]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

Yeah. Bad day yesterday. President Obama was on TV trying to calm the nation but he looked very uncomfortable. What I call "sweating out loud". Anyhow, I'm not an American so am waiting for our Prime Minister to tell me when it's time to buy stocks, again. :-)

Anyhow, S&P sees the U.S. credit rating on a par with New Zealand and, I think, Lichtenstein (wherever that is).

You make a point about the Tea Party, I guess. It's not the U.S. can't pay the debts. I think what's being said is they won't do what's necessary. They have room to increase taxes but won't. A lot of expensive initiatives (without naming them as you know) and no real will to pay for them. A recipe for a nations debt to not be very desirable.

I don't know what will happen with Italy. The future for the Euro doesn't look that bright to me. At least not with all the present member nations still in the Eurozone.

By the way, I'm not a gold bug. I've never seen anyone buy anything in a store using gold as a currency. That wasn't the case around 1900 and the gold rush times, so I can see the value of the metal then more readily than I can see it now.

Obama gives a speech and stocks accelerate their dive. The next day, the Fed makes a ho-hum statement and stocks soar. That says something about how irrevelant Obama has become in just a few months. His presidency is now in jeopardy, and this is what is fueling the Tea Party. I think someone in the Democratic Party (not sure who) should seriously consider challenging Obama for the nomination, if that is even possible. I never liked him, he has no original ideas.

Europe has solidified for a day or two without the need for Germany to step forward. How long that can continue is anyone's guess.

Owning gold is more for those who have little faith in fiat currency. But even now, there are about as many economists against buying gold (saying it's a bubble ready to burst) as there are in favor of it. It's all about how thick or thin you think the veneer of civilization may be.

[John Henry]

Re: THE NEW one-and-only Depression thread

:):):):):):):):)