Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Year End Review: Canada - Next 2015 Federal Gov't?

Here's a little something which might have some effect on the choices people make of the stance they want the government to take on foreign affairs. Kind of makes my tagline of 2015 being the year of the Nuke "interesting".

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/12...litary-threat/

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Year End Review: Canada - Next 2015 Federal Gov't?

Well, that's not all that helpful.........except for the fact that it seems my $ 20 bill, sitting on my bookshelf in my study, is getting used to the fact that the NDP will not form the next Canadian federal government, as per my bet with Gary. So it looks pretty much at this point, like it will be migrating to live with Checkmate.....but hey, 10 months in politics is a life-time...never give up my little $ 20 friend!

Bob A

Actually, I didn't consider the financial implications when I made the bet. Smarter would have been to make the bet in US dollars. Our Canadian dollar was worth around $1.05 against the U.S. dollar during the 2011 election. Now it has collapsed to a mere approx. 85 cents. Our dollar hasn't fallen as much as the Russian Ruble but it's not that far off. Something the newspapers and politicians are not exactly forthcoming in telling us. We're being punished almost as much as the Russians by the drop in oil price.

The players in the NHL are doing better than those in the KHL. NHL players are payed in U.S. dollars while KHL players are paid in Russian Rubbles. (SIC).

It's a good thing Alberta is so strongly conservative and likely to support the governing political party. It's not outside the realm of possibility oil could test the $30. range although that would be extreme.

The problem is this. I think we've been fed a bunch of baloney which passed for science. It's likely oil is as plentiful underground as water is above ground. It's simply a matter of finding methods of extracting the oil and the ones who can do that at the lowest prices will dictate the selling price.

[Bob Armstrong]

Year End Review: Canada - Next 2015 Federal Gov't?

Poll suggests Tories and NDP currently in statistical tie: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...d.html?cmp=rss

I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!

Bob A, NDP supporter

An end of year look at months of results from six different pollsters suggests:

Trudeau's Liberals remain imperviously buoyant,
Harper's Tories have seen only marginal gains despite a number of issues breaking their way, and
NDP fortunes are stalled, notwithstanding Mulcair's widely lauded parliamentary performance.

In the past week alone, national polls from recognized opinion surveyors have shown the following figures:

Liberal support as high as 41 per cent (Forum Research) and as low as 32 per cent (EKOS),
Conservative support from 33 to 31 per cent, and
NDP support at 19 (Leger), 20 (Forum) and 17 per cent (EKOS).

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/federal-po...171334532.html

Well, that's not all that helpful.........except for the fact that it seems my $ 20 bill, sitting on my bookshelf in my study, is getting used to the fact that the NDP will not form the next Canadian federal government, as per my bet with Gary. So it looks pretty much at this point, like it will be migrating to live with Checkmate.....but hey, 10 months in politics is a life-time...never give up my little $ 20 friend!

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

How many believe this projection: A Liberal Majority?

Bob A

Minority government isn't a ballot option so anytime someone votes for a politician there is a chance his party will form a majority.

Discontinuing door to door mail service will cost the PC's ridings. The point of no return for cancelling that program may have passed.

I'd like to vote conservative but I have to vote for door to door. I don't know how many others are in that situation.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Poll suggests Tories and NDP currently in statistical tie: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...d.html?cmp=rss

I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!

Bob A, NDP supporter

Well.....looking like my bet with Gary is in big trouble. The latest Forum Research poll:

"Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are in majority government territory, according to the latest survey from Forum Research.

The Liberals now sit at 41 per cent, a five-point jump from Forum’s polling in November. The Conservatives were second, with 33 per cent of respondents saying they’d vote for Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party.
The opposition New Democrats, led by Thomas Mulcair, are polling a distant third. Less than a fifth of respondents (17 per cent) said they would vote for the NDP, largely unchanged from November.

Forum’s poll positions have not changed since March 2013, when Trudeau took over the third-place Liberals. But over the last six months, the Conservatives have narrowed the gap."

How many believe this projection: A Liberal Majority?

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Bob,

There may be a couple of problems for the Liberals.

The two suspended Liberal MP's who are sitting as independents. If Trudeau doesn't take them back I'd assume they will contest the next election as independents. They could pull enough votes to win or to allow a different party to win the ridings. Probably you know Frank Magazine published the names of the complainers. You can google it.

Then there is the meeting Wynne wants with Harper. The last meeting they had Wynne seemed to reveal the details and claimed the Prime Minister smirked at one point. A smirk is a subjective observation and we can never know if we would have interpreted what happened in that manner. In any case, that last private meeting indicates a public meeting with cameras would suffice. I think the Prime Minister is doing the right thing.

Gary

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

CPC/LPC: neck+neck.
NDP - way back.

Don't like to see the NDP collapsing in Ontario - how many Ontario federal seats do they hold now?

Gary: My $ 20 bill is looking nervous on top my bookshelf (beside my 2007 Scarborough Chess Club Reserves Champion trophy. :) thought I might be able to just sneak that in without anyone noticing).

Bob

Hi Bob,

Probably that 20 dollar bill will look good beside my chess trophies, medals and certificates.

For me the main issue in the election is the mail delivery. It will decide my vote.

This riding normally votes Liberal, with the exception of two terms during the Mulroney years and the current conservative with the Harper majority. New riding boundaries next election so it's hard to know how it will go. The riding is being cut in half, pretty much, and the incumbent has chosen to contest this half. With all the Save door to door lawn signs in this area it's hard to imagine him winning.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

A Michael Cooke Tweet Today, Wed., Dec. 3/14 (@TorStarEditor)

Ipsos-Reid poll re 2015 Federal Election:

Nationally

Liberals (34%)
Tories (33%)
NDP (not given - likely 25%?)

Seems like all around bad news: can't believe Harper/CPC are rehabilitating themselves by their strutting on the international stage (while their governance within Canada is in a shambles - environment; veterans; immigration; etc.). A small bit of good news may be that the voter is taking a closer look at Trudeau's substance. NDP/Opposition leader, Tom Mulcair, in my view, continues to perform well, without getting much credit from any quarter.

Ontario

CPC/LPC: neck+neck.
NDP - way back.

Don't like to see the NDP collapsing in Ontario - how many Ontario federal seats do they hold now?

Gary: My $ 20 bill is looking nervous on top my bookshelf (beside my 2007 Scarborough Chess Club Reserves Champion trophy. :) thought I might be able to just sneak that in without anyone noticing).

Bob

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Gary:

My wife and I had concluded the same about Flaherty's riding and the NDP collapse...despite popular belief, a lot of committed NDP'ers are pragmatic, not ideological. Strategic voting also indicates those in the party who want a "working arrangement" at the riding level between the NDP and the Liberals......to get the CPC's out of our hair, once and for all in 2015. Strategic voting is the individual implementing a working relationship with the Liberal candidate.

Bob A

Hi Bob,

I'm kind of enjoying watching the relationship between the Ontario Liberal government and the Federal Government. Wynne seems to be getting the same treatment from Ottawa she gave Ford as Mayor.

I think the PM is smart enough not to give a spendaholic more money.

I'm assuming people will vote for the government they can afford.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

That's strategic voting for you.

Hi Gary:

My wife and I had concluded the same about Flaherty's riding and the NDP collapse...despite popular belief, a lot of committed NDP'ers are pragmatic, not ideological. Strategic voting also indicates those in the party who want a "working arrangement" at the riding level between the NDP and the Liberals......to get the CPC's out of our hair, once and for all in 2015. Strategic voting is the individual implementing a working relationship with the Liberal candidate.

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Gary:

I am not concerned....my esteemed leader, Thomas Mulcair, has said that he is not concerned:D. It is not reflective of NDP strength across this great land!!

How about that!

That's strategic voting for you.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Bob, what did you think of the collapse of the NDP vote in the Whitby - Oshawa by-election?

At least part of that riding was NDP at one time as I recall. That in the days of Broadbent. The south end of that riding comes very close to the GM plant in Oshawa.

Keep my $20. safe. I have a better chance of winning that than Anand does of winning back his World championship.

Hi Gary:

I am not concerned....my esteemed leader, Thomas Mulcair, has said that he is not concerned:D. It is not reflective of NDP strength across this great land!!

How about that!

Better get your $ 20 ready to leave home!

Bob

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Bob, what did you think of the collapse of the NDP vote in the Whitby - Oshawa by-election?

At least part of that riding was NDP at one time as I recall. That in the days of Broadbent. The south end of that riding comes very close to the GM plant in Oshawa.

Keep my $20. safe. I have a better chance of winning that than Anand does of winning back his World championship.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

I don't know if there will be an early election and don't much care if they do that. I've already decided for which party I will vote.

There's an interesting by-election in the Whitby-Oshawa riding tomorrow.It was the riding Jim Flaherty held for many years. The last two election he received more than 50 percent of the vote and more than 25 percent more than his closest opponent.

If the conservatives lose that riding or if it's real close I'd expect some problems in the neighboring ridings. The Conservative candidate is the popular 2 term ex-mayor who decided to contest that riding rather than another term as mayor in the recent elections.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Poll suggests Tories and NDP currently in statistical tie: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...d.html?cmp=rss

I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!

Bob A, NDP supporter

A year in politics is a long time. Things happen that dramatically alter the view of the public.

So how about this tweet from Peter Mansbridge of the National (news on the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation network) on a panel conference tonight (Sun., Nov. 16):

The National
Coming up: #CBCSundayPanel talks possible spring election. Harper leads polls for first time in months. Can Trudeau and Mulcair catch up?

Also note that Harper had implemented a "fixed date" for a Fall next election: Oct. 19, 2015.....but it is not binding from what I understand.

So do we put any faith in the poll putting the Conservative Party of Canada back in the lead?

Bob A