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I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!
Bob A, NDP supporter
Paul Fairie is a political scientist at the University of Calgary, where he studies voter behaviour.
"The federal election is scheduled for a year away and every political scientist is being asked the same question: who is going to win? Other than coming up with creative ways to avoid answering the question, we instead can attempt to make some predictions by consulting two prominent psephological soothsayers: opinion polls, and the economy."
Concerning polls, after some exhaustive research, he says:
"...expecting polls to have such forecasting power [calling the winner one year before the election] is unfair, as they are taking a snapshot of what would happen if an election were held today, not a year from now. This is understandable: I have enough difficulty deciding what to have for dinner tonight. I can’t imagine picking what I might want to have a year from now. It’s not that polls aren’t good predictors of elections; it’s that they aren’t good predictors of Canadian elections a year from now."
Bob, watch the Whitby-Oshawa by-election next month. It was Jim Flaherty's riding.
The riding on south end goes to the lake. On the East end, from a map with no streets marked at the boundary it looks to stop just short of the General Motors plant. There have been a lot of changes to the boundaries over the decades but I'm certain at least parts of that riding was NDP over the years.
It's a chance to use door to door delivery as an issue in the southern part of the riding particularly the older areas of Whitby. The conservatives candidate is the Whitby Mayor so it they lose it will be a big shift. A huge upset. We saw what happened when Hudak ran on taking things away. However, the provincial conservatives held that riding.
The NDP may get some positive feelings from this recent EKOS Quebec poll re the 2015 federal election:
NDP 32.4%
Liberal 24.5%
Conservative 12.9%
Bloq 11.6%
The numbers shift a bit more in favour of the NDP among just Francophone Quebecers:
NDP 35.1%
Liberal 19.8%
Bloq 14.1%
Conservative 12.7%
So it looks like the possibility for the NDP to become the next federal government has a sound base ---they have a core holding in Quebec; they must grow in the other provinces. And I believe NDP leader, Thomas Mulcair, is doing a good job, and will soon be starting to get some credit for it from Canadian voters generally.
Bob
I would expect the NDP and Libs to be doing well in Quebec with both leaders from that province. However, as you know, the population there is not growing as fast as elsewhere so they get less new ridings in the redistribution and addition.
Also, the latest vote against the government going to war goes all the way back to the conscription crises of 1917 and 1944. The old divisions.
What will probably hurt the conservatives is door to door mail delivery. I see the union is taking the government to court on this one and that should go through the election period.
I suspect both the NDP and Liberals will campaign on restoring the service to secure the union and senior vote. Strategic voting in English Canada will likely favour the liberals.
This is the kind of thing they are up against in Winnipeg.
I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!
Bob A, NDP supporter
The NDP may get some positive feelings from this recent EKOS Quebec poll re the 2015 federal election:
NDP 32.4%
Liberal 24.5%
Conservative 12.9%
Bloq 11.6%
The numbers shift a bit more in favour of the NDP among just Francophone Quebecers:
NDP 35.1%
Liberal 19.8%
Bloq 14.1%
Conservative 12.7%
So it looks like the possibility for the NDP to become the next federal government has a sound base ---they have a core holding in Quebec; they must grow in the other provinces. And I believe NDP leader, Thomas Mulcair, is doing a good job, and will soon be starting to get some credit for it from Canadian voters generally.
Bob
Last edited by Bob Armstrong; Sunday, 19th October, 2014, 03:33 PM.
Re: Early Fall/14 Polls: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?
Bob, I wouldn't read too much into that poll. Particularly the support in Ontario. The election is still a year off. The provincial liberals recently won an election and now they have to come to agreements with the public service unions.
Federally, there is still time for the Conservatives to regain much of their support.
No. You wagered the NDP would form the government. I don't bet on the official opposition.
Without knowing what the Conservatives will do in the next year I have no way of predicting their position in the election.
Was just askin' - kind of expected that was the answer..........I'm preparing the $ 20 bill on my chess bookshelf in my study, for the fact that in 2015, he may have a new home, with checkmate.
Re: Early Fall/14 Polls: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?
Gary:
The poll winds may be shifting:
EKOS poll presented by Frank Graves, Founder & President:
the leading Liberals: 38.3 %
the languishing Conservatives: 24.9 %
the third-place NDP at 24.4 %
Some good news for the NDP. And the article indicates that Canadians are nervous about Iraq. The Libs and NDP may benefit from the Conservatives "combat" policy?
Though, as politicians say, the only important poll is the one on voting day, these polls are concerning the $20 bill, sitting on my chess bookcase in my study.
I think you can kiss the $20 bill good bye. I think I'll use it to buy Checkmate some doggie treats. ;)
There is still a long way to go until the election. We'll have to see how the other political parties plan to deal with things like Canada Post and home delivery. As an example, looking out my window, I can see 4 houses with Save Door to Door signs on their lawns. On another street there are 7 homes in a row with that sign on their front lawn. This riding has a conservative incumbent.
Another big issue is our relations with Russia.
I think the conservatives are doing a good job. Problem is I pretty much have to vote for someone who promises to continue home delivery if they have a chance of winning. It's a problem because the places where they want to discontinue the mail service tends to be older areas with elderly residents. I'd also prefer it be the conservatives who decide to continue home mail delivery.
Of course, any argument Canada Post is separate from the Federal government is not taken seriously.
The big question. Who will labour support? Liberals or NDP?
I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!
Bob A, NDP supporter
Angus Reid Global Poll (Sept. 29):
Liberal - 36%
Conservative - 30%
New Democrats - 22% (dropped five points from last poll)
Abacus Data Poll (Oct. 1):
Liberal - 38%
Conservative - 30%
New Democrats - 23% (up 1% from last poll)
Though, as politicians say, the only important poll is the one on voting day, these polls are concerning the $20 bill, sitting on my chess bookcase in my study. I am having trouble convincing him (and me), that the NDP can yet come back from this dismal third place showing. And I feel Thomas Mulcair has been doing quite well as Opposition Leader. But it appears the public is focused currently on a two-way race. It may turn out that we poor NDP'ers in 2015 may again be faced with the strategic voting dilemma, if the Cons are close to the Libs, and we have remained a somewhat distant third (sigh).
I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!
Bob A, NDP supporter
Well, here we go again with the discussion whether polls are any evidence of what will happen in the next federal election.....in this case still a year away. What we can see is the dramatic difference in public opinion between now and June, 2012 when this thread started. At that point it was a Conservative/NDP race...Libs below the radar. Now........a sea change. The 3rd party (Liberals) lead by some margin, and the official opposition (NDP) have fallen back a ways into third.
I believe polls are indicative about 80 % of the time, but ......only when close to the election. There are too many political minefields for all leaders to stomp on between the poll and the election, which can totally change the political landscape.
So I am not yet counting my NDP out. Mulcair is a competent leader, and they will fight tooth and nail with the Grits in Quebec, to hold their seats there. And Harper still has lots of time to continue digging himself deeper and deeper into trouble with more and more of the electorate, and continue to slide into oblivion (the Franklin discovery not withstanding).
Hi Ken: No obstacle will prevent the NDP from becoming the next Canadian federal government! ;)
Bob A
Was losing Chow's riding in the by-election an obstacle?
I was surprised at the last Toronto Mayoral poll showing her at less than 20%. If the poll is repeatable, her chances of winning will be very slim.
Moving on to BC, the teachers strike is in full swing. I heard the education minister on TV quoted as talking about discussing it in October when the legislature returns. I guess with the government giving the money to the parents for daycare there's no rush to end the strike. It seems the government won't let compulsory arbitration bail them out.
Canada Post which is somewhat independent of the government is the entity that is taking away home delivery. The fact is with email, letters are largely irrelevant these days. I haven't heard anyone promising to reverse this as the long term cost is likely to be too great. Canada Post is on a downward spiral that really can't be reversed. Early on they tried to seize control of email but were unsuccessful in convincing anyone that they should be in charge of this new fangled way of delivering mail. There were new ridings in Alberta and Ontario due to population growth so the deck is stacked in favour of the conservatives if they can hang on to their base and there is no indication so far that they can't.
I still feel J. T. and the Liberals have a lock on getting at least a minority, stacked deck or not. J.T. is doing a full court press everywhere, too, putting in appearances in each provincial election, even, before the federal election comes.
Btw, I posted a reply to you on the CFC discussion board today (not urgent though).
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Friday, 12th September, 2014, 07:01 PM.
Reason: Spelling
If you're right, and people don't associate a service with Canada the first word of the name Canada Post as being a government service, maybe it won't be an issue. I doubt many see the quasi-government agency which has been set up as our postal service as being a completely separate operation from the government.
Get used to saying Prime Minister Trudeau unless Mr. Harper starts taking care of us Canadians. If they can afford new F-35's they can afford to deliver our mail.
Lots of new ridings in Ontario. I read awhile ago that to get a majority the conservatives will have to win all the upcoming by-elections, hold them and all their current ridings plus win 7 of the new ridings. I don't know how accurate that is.
In the riding where I live it's being split in pretty much into two with some area added to both. The incumbent conservative, who lives in the riding, will contest this half of the new ridings where he doesn't live. His party wants to take away out mail delivery. This last years is the first time we've had a conservative federally since the Mulroney government.
Then there is foreign policy. You have to remember Trudeau senior, for whom I never voted, did not move in lockstep with the Americans. We did not follow the U.S. to Vietnam and we did not take the same route regarding Cuba.
While I suspect Justin would take the same route as his father we'll have to wait until he makes his policies clearer.
Canada Post which is somewhat independent of the government is the entity that is taking away home delivery. The fact is with email, letters are largely irrelevant these days. I haven't heard anyone promising to reverse this as the long term cost is likely to be too great. Canada Post is on a downward spiral that really can't be reversed. Early on they tried to seize control of email but were unsuccessful in convincing anyone that they should be in charge of this new fangled way of delivering mail. There were new ridings in Alberta and Ontario due to population growth so the deck is stacked in favour of the conservatives if they can hang on to their base and there is no indication so far that they can't.
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