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I've got an extra reason to hope for the NYI to beat the Leafs today, i.e. in order to also hinder NJ's chances of making the playoffs.
I'm guessing the Islanders will win by at least two goals. They're a stronger team than the Sabres, and the understaffed Leafs had a tough enough time just splitting two games against them.
The Senators should beat the Flyers easily (and thoughts of revenge may help the cause)... but who can be sure?
I've got my fingers crossed as far as the Habs beating Minnesota is concerned. Montreal is the underdog IMO.
Fwiw, my assessment is that Montreal, while not having a lot of star players, at least doesn't seem to have too many weak ones. Lunchbucket hockey would serve them well.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Fwiw, my assessment is that Montreal, while not having a lot of star players, at least doesn't seem to have too many weak ones. Lunchbucket hockey would serve them well.
They're a great team. Just pacing themselves. So they can make a comeback later in the season.
Regardless of how the Leafs do, it doesn't change how your two teams of choice are doing. The Habs aren't what they used to be. The glory days look over. I read somewhere some players have no trade to Montreal clauses in their contract. If that's true it limits trades.
...
Regardless of how the Leafs do, it doesn't change how your two teams of choice are doing. The Habs aren't what they used to be. The glory days look over. I read somewhere some players have no trade to Montreal clauses in their contract. If that's true it limits trades.
Possibly it'll matter how the Leafs do, if they manage to perform quite poorly against my teams of choice for the rest of the season.
One of the things I much regretted about not switching from the Leafs (as a fan) sooner is that I missed all those glory years and cups that the Habs had. In any case, no Canadian team has won a cup for decade(s), as I seem to recall.
The no-trade to Montreal clauses may well be occuring because of language etc. problems posed for anglophones residing in Quebec, which would include hockey players.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Possibly it'll matter how the Leafs do, if they manage to perform quite poorly against my teams of choice for the rest of the season.
One of the things I much regretted about not switching from the Leafs (as a fan) sooner is that I missed all those glory years and cups that the Habs had. In any case, no Canadian team has won a cup for decade(s), as I seem to recall.
The no-trade to Montreal clauses may well be occuring because of language etc. problems posed for anglophones residing in Quebec, which would include hockey players.
The Leafs have one of the best young cores of any team in the NHL right now. While this might not necessarily translate into a Cup or two ( many strong teams never win a Cup ), it seems ironic to me you have abandoned a team that has all the signs of making some serious runs the next 5-7 years.
The Leafs game I picked explicitly to go the Islanders way (by 2 goals), and I missed that. I couldn't bring myself to predict explicitly that Montreal would lose (though I did say I thought they were the underdog), and I'm glad they didn't. The Senators game, well I tried not to commit myself on that one (after noting they were the heavy favourite in my mind), like for the Habs game.
Fwiw, I didn't buy an Ottawa Sun yesterday, and didn't know which teams the 'Oddsboard' named as 'underdogs' in the above games. I suspect Minnesota may have been listed as the underdog against the Habs (they are today in their game against Ottawa), I suspect Ottawa was the favourite against the Flyers, and I wouldn't hazard a guess as to who was listed as the underdog in the Leafs game. So, you may be mostly right that I was going largely against what people who know more about hockey thought. At least I stuck my neck out, if only for chesstalk entertainment value. :D
I thought the Leafs would lose at least one game in regulation, of their last two games. Now the Leafs will need to lose at least 5 games in regulation out of their remaining six games in November (if I'm counting right) to make my prediction for the Leafs' November record come true. I must admit, it'll take some kind of talent on Toronto's part to make that happen...
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
The Leafs game I picked explicitly to go the Islanders way (by 2 goals), and I missed that. I couldn't bring myself to predict explicitly that Montreal would lose (though I did say I thought they were the underdog), and I'm glad they didn't. The Senators game, well I tried not to commit myself on that one (after noting they were the heavy favourite in my mind), like for the Habs game.
Fwiw, I didn't buy an Ottawa Sun yesterday, and didn't know which teams the 'Oddsboard' named as 'underdogs' in the above games. I suspect Minnesota may have been listed as the underdog against the Habs (they are today in their game against Ottawa), I suspect Ottawa was the favourite against the Flyers, and I wouldn't hazard a guess as to who was listed as the underdog in the Leafs game. So, you may be mostly right that I was going largely against what people who know more about hockey thought. At least I stuck my neck out, if only for chesstalk entertainment value. :D
I thought the Leafs would lose at least one game in regulation, of their last two games. Now the Leafs will need to lose at least 5 games in regulation out of their remaining six games in November (if I'm counting right) to make my prediction for the Leafs' November record come true. I must admit, it'll take some kind of talent on Toronto's part to make that happen...
Leafs have a solid trend of playing well at home. Choosing to go against that trend versus the Islanders ( trending badly, missing their best goalie to boot ) was truly a horrible pick. Flyers are on a decent streak and thus were -130 favorites at home versus Ottawa. In terms of your prediction of a horrible month of November for the Leafs, it was a total miss. Despite the injuries and suspensions, plus the fact several of their tougher games in the month were front loaded, they are doing fine. Now if you had said that Detroit or maybe Vancouver would have a horrible month, you would have been a lot closer to the mark so far. Many pundits ( including yourself ) expected big things from the Red Wings this year, but I noted that they are an older team and wasn't sure how they would do.
I don't see how any team that is 8-2 at home can be terrible for a whole month but I guess in a world largely based on superstition one cannot expect very much accuracy on any ideas. Nashville won't be easy they just got a couple of nice wins.
I can't recall mentioning Detroit in my earlier posts, but perhaps my memory is failing.
I guess it was just 'superstition' to think the Leafs might encounter such things as an injury bug etc. sooner if not later. Fwiw, I myself am not that superstitious about things I don't think have what I consider a real or at least slightly probable ring of truth to them. Black cats [edit: ,four-leaf clovers or horseshoes] mean nothing to me, for example, but walking under ladders, as is well known, poses a safety risk, even if only sometimes slight. The number 13 only bothers me slightly (Christianity does not necessarily exclude the possible importance of numbers in the universe, and the idea of bad luck for 13 I think may be rooted in the Last Supper - plus the number 7 also has possible significance), but many buildings do not have a marked thirteenth floor. Italians, on the other hand, consider 13 lucky for some reason, I've read. I've seen at the least Russian or Eastern European hockey players who willingly wear the number, perhaps out of a lack of superstition.
As a junior I used to wear the same clothes to weekend swisses if I thought I had unusual success with them, even if I could not properly justify it. Nowadays I might say that wearing all brown or grey clothes might lull an opponent to sleep a bit. Nowadays I usually wear my most comfortably fitting shirts, which is a more banal reason. Capablanca was accused of wearing wildly coloured ties to distract his opponents, I once read, fwiw.
Tonight the Senators lost again, to Minnesota (the 'Oddsboard' 'underdog', afaik, fwiw) in regulation. If this keeps up, it may require, say, Florida to eventually pass the Leafs in the standings, if my hunch is right about the Leafs ultimately not making the playoffs. Yes, that may be superstition/spite, but I prefer to think of it as (perhaps flawed) inductive thinking based on 40+ years of bitter experience as a Leaf fan, along with my earlier efforts at showing you 'cleaner' reasons why it might happen.
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Sunday, 24th November, 2013, 03:04 PM.
Reason: Grammar
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
After yesterday's loss against Nashville in regulation, the Leaf's remaining five games in November now hold more potential to justify my prediction of 8+ losses in regulation for Toronto this month (currently there are four, with one loss after regulation as well, as opposed to three victories for the Leafs, as I recall). That''s in spite of Duncan's possibly premature 'burial' of my prediction.
The Leafs still are to face Washington, Columbus, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and then Montreal in November. In spite of Duncan not being impressed with my Habs, they just beat 'Oddsboard' 'favourite' Washington in regulation, thus softening the Capitals up for Toronto, who also have the advantage that the Capitals must face them on back to back nights. If Toronto loses to them in regulation anyway, as is quite possible, then things begin to get tense for chesstalk Leaf fans. :D Pittsburgh and Montreal will have at the least a fair shot at winning against Toronto in regulation. It could only be a question of whether the Leafs cough up at least one regulation loss to Columbus or Buffalo for me to make my 8+ 'tricks' out of 13 to make my 'contract', as it were, as they would say in the game of Bridge.
Meanwhile, on another front (sorry to mix metaphors), New Jersey is starting to unsettle my equanimity, in as far as they are also 'threatening' to make the playoffs if they more or less keep their current place in the standings.
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Friday, 22nd November, 2013, 11:49 PM.
Reason: Spelling
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Montreal and (even finally) Ottawa won last night, each in regulation. New Jersey even lost, in regulation.
What can I say about the Leafs (shootout) win? Washington got 50 shots on Reimer and still lost. I must have inadvertently blessed the Leafs by becoming an active anti-Leaf fan on chesstalk.
Surely now even the Leafs of old could not manage to proceed to now lose 4 games straight, each in regulation. Maybe they will only win one out of the four though, in which case they win just 5 games out of 13 for November, which would be a moral victory for me considering my November prediction for the Leafs of 8+ regulation losses and 5 wins maximum.
For me, the moral is that I have to learn not to make any short-term sports predictions. As for my long term prediction that the Leafs will not make the playoffs, or at the least not get past the first round, well, 'All in good time...' ;)
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Montreal and (even finally) Ottawa won last night, each in regulation. New Jersey even lost, in regulation.
What can I say about the Leafs (shootout) win? Washington got 50 shots on Reimer and still lost. I must have inadvertently blessed the Leafs by becoming an active anti-Leaf fan on chesstalk.
Surely now even the Leafs of old could not manage to proceed to now lose 4 games straight, each in regulation. Maybe they will only win one out of the four though, in which case they win just 5 games out of 13 for November, which would be a moral victory for me considering my November prediction for the Leafs of 8+ regulation losses and 5 wins maximum.
For me, the moral is that I have to learn not to make any short-term sports predictions. As for my long term prediction that the Leafs will not make the playoffs, or at the least not get past the first round, well, 'All in good time...' ;)
At some point you need to look at the rosters and understand my point. I am NOT a lifelong Leafs fan, but I am a fan of well put together teams with character. My experiences with curling, soccer, and softball have tended to highlight the importance of these qualities in sport. My instincts tell me this Leafs team will be very good for at least 4-5 years, particularly because they are well positioned re the salary cap and a pretty young core is there and getting better. Reilly, Kadri, and Van Reimsdyk were all fairly high draft picks that have worked out. Gardner they seem to like, and he was good in the playoffs last year.
My guess is the Leafs finish second in their division behind Boston, that Montreal gets a wild card on the final weekend. As with any long term prediction in a league with some parity, there are no guarantees. One might say that their conference is tight and the teams with good character players and strong goaltending will come out the end a little better. Sounds like the Leafs to me.
Fwiw, I myself am not that superstitious about things I don't think have what I consider a real or at least slightly probable ring of truth to them. Black cats [edit: ,four-leaf clovers or horseshoes] mean nothing to me, for example, but walking under ladders, as is well known, poses a safety risk, even if only sometimes slight. The number 13 only bothers me slightly (Christianity does not necessarily exclude the possible importance of numbers in the universe, and the idea of bad luck for 13 I think may be rooted in the Last Supper - plus the number 7 also has possible significance), but many buildings do not have a marked thirteenth floor. Italians, on the other hand, consider 13 lucky for some reason, I've read. I've seen at the least Russian or Eastern European hockey players who willingly wear the number, perhaps out of a lack of superstition. 
Maybe they will only win one out of the four though, in which case they win just 5 games out of 13 for November, which would be a moral victory for me considering my November prediction for the Leafs of 8+ regulation losses and 5 wins maximum. 
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