Feel the Bern

[Vlad Rekhson]

Re: Bernie Sanders is the first Jew in US history to win a Presidential primary.

An interesting question I posed to myself today,
“what is the probability of each contestant to be US President?

So, I built a spreadsheet, and worked out the following probabilities.

Based on the following assumptions:

Republicans: Probability of a contested convention 50%
No convention: Trump 90%, Cruz 10%
Convention: Trump 25%, Cruz 35%, Kasich 20%, Romney 10%, Ryan 10%

Democrats: Probability of a contested convention 40%
No convention: Clinton 90%, Sanders 10%
Convention: Clinton 70%, Sanders 30%

Clinton wins vs.
Trump 65%
Cruz 50%
Kasich 40%
Romney 50%
Ryan 50%

Sanders wins vs.
Trump 70%
Cruz 60%
Kasich 50%
Romney 65%
Ryan 65%

Do the math, probability of being President:

Clinton 47%
Trump 20%
Sanders 12%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 6%
Romney 2%
Ryan 2%

Democratic President 59%
Republican President 41%

Crazy, eh!

How about the probability of a 74 year old man dying in the next four years? And being the president is a pretty demanding job.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Bernie Sanders is the first Jew in US history to win a Presidential primary.

An interesting question I posed to myself today,
“what is the probability of each contestant to be US President?

So, I built a spreadsheet, and worked out the following probabilities.

Based on the following assumptions:

Republicans: Probability of a contested convention 50%
No convention: Trump 90%, Cruz 10%
Convention: Trump 25%, Cruz 35%, Kasich 20%, Romney 10%, Ryan 10%

Democrats: Probability of a contested convention 40%
No convention: Clinton 90%, Sanders 10%
Convention: Clinton 70%, Sanders 30%

Clinton wins vs.
Trump 65%
Cruz 50%
Kasich 40%
Romney 50%
Ryan 50%

Sanders wins vs.
Trump 70%
Cruz 60%
Kasich 50%
Romney 65%
Ryan 65%

Do the math, probability of being President:

Clinton 47%
Trump 20%
Sanders 12%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 6%
Romney 2%
Ryan 2%

Democratic President 59%
Republican President 41%

Crazy, eh!

:D Too much time on your hands :)..........folks, extend his work day.....keep those tournaments coming in for rating!

[Bob Gillanders]

Re: Bernie Sanders is the first Jew in US history to win a Presidential primary.

An interesting question I posed to myself today,
“what is the probability of each contestant to be US President?

So, I built a spreadsheet, and worked out the following probabilities.

Based on the following assumptions:

Republicans: Probability of a contested convention 50%
No convention: Trump 90%, Cruz 10%
Convention: Trump 25%, Cruz 35%, Kasich 20%, Romney 10%, Ryan 10%

Democrats: Probability of a contested convention 40%
No convention: Clinton 90%, Sanders 10%
Convention: Clinton 70%, Sanders 30%

Clinton wins vs.
Trump 65%
Cruz 50%
Kasich 40%
Romney 50%
Ryan 50%

Sanders wins vs.
Trump 70%
Cruz 60%
Kasich 50%
Romney 65%
Ryan 65%

Do the math, probability of being President:

Clinton 47%
Trump 20%
Sanders 12%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 6%
Romney 2%
Ryan 2%

Democratic President 59%
Republican President 41%

Crazy, eh!

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Bernie Sanders is the first Jew in US history to win a Presidential primary.

A few millenia ago someone said "If you not a socialist when you're twenty, there's something wrong with you. If you're still a socialist when you're thirty, there's something wrong with you."

Hi Denis:

It continues:"You then have another 45 years (Bernie will be 75 y.o. on Sept. 8, 2016) to undo the error, and get back to the original correct position!"

Bob A

[Denis Allan]

Re: Bernie Sanders is the first Jew in US history to win a Presidential primary.

A few millenia ago someone said "If you not a socialist when you're twenty, there's something wrong with you. If you're still a socialist when you're thirty, there's something wrong with you."

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

That is the argument given by those who have concluded long ago that Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. It’s the math stupid argument. Well, I believe I have been careful not to predict a Sanders win, but I do believe that the probability of a Clinton win to be significantly lower than 100%.

If Hillary does win, then at least Bernie has given voice to important issues. Hopefully she would then pick up the torch and run with it.

Hi Bob G:

Agreed. I believe it is more important to Bernie, personally, and his supporters, to preach "the revolution" from the primaries/caucuses platform, all the way into the summer Convention, than actually winning (Which they also hope to do....which isn't going to happen, unfortunately). And the Democrats, with Hillary, can thank their lucky stars about who the three possible opposition candidates will be.....anyone decent and a bit centrist from the Republicans, might well defeat "Hillary, the Establishment, the Obama more of the same".

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

The Democratic Party Establishment (DPE), from which most of the unpledged delegates come, will have nothing of changing votes at the summer Convention. They do not want Bernie's "revolution". They are not stupid.....they also will become victims of any "revolution"........the DPE has influence, and will win the nomination for Hillary, regardless of what the rank and file Democrats may want.

Certainly, somewhat disappointing........

Anyone agree with my analysis?

Bob A

That is the argument given by those who have concluded long ago that Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. It’s the math stupid argument. Well, I believe I have been careful not to predict a Sanders win, but I do believe that the probability of a Clinton win to be significantly lower than 100%.

If Hillary does win, then at least Bernie has given voice to important issues. Hopefully she would then pick up the torch and run with it.

[Tom O'Donnell]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

I consider Clinton to be the most dangerous candidate to world safety short of Cruz. Having said that, she currently has over 2 million more votes than Sanders. How Sanders' supporters think that he has some sort of mandate to lead is a total mystery to me.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

Bernie wins Wyoming.
He gets 56% of the vote, but splits the pledged delegates with Hillary, 7 each.

But, to summarize since Mar 15, Sanders has won 7 of 8 states, and 237 of 373 pledged delegates.
If Bernie can win 932 of the remaining 1647 pledged delegates (57%), he would have a majority of pledged delegates. Would then enough super delegates change their vote?

New York is up next. Still a steep hill to climb, but what if he actually wins New York.
Anyway, this race isn't over yet no matter how often the media tells you otherwise.

Hi Bob G:

I support Bernie too.

But......the unpledged delegates (SuperDelegates) are his death knell, IMHO.

The Democratic Party Establishment (DPE), from which most of the unpledged delegates come, will have nothing of changing votes at the summer Convention. They do not want Bernie's "revolution". They are not stupid.....they also will become victims of any "revolution"........the DPE has influence, and will win the nomination for Hillary, regardless of what the rank and file Democrats may want.

Certainly, somewhat disappointing........

Anyone agree with my analysis?

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

Bernie wins Wyoming.
He gets 56% of the vote, but splits the pledged delegates with Hillary, 7 each.

But, to summarize since Mar 15, Sanders has won 7 of 8 states, and 237 of 373 pledged delegates.
If Bernie can win 932 of the remaining 1647 pledged delegates (57%), he would have a majority of pledged delegates. Would then enough super delegates change their vote?

New York is up next. Still a steep hill to climb, but what if he actually wins New York.
Anyway, this race isn't over yet no matter how often the media tells you otherwise.

[Steve Douglas]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

Hi Bob G

The answer to your question: Nope (The Democratic Party Establishment (DPE) will shoot anyone who tries - right to bear arms and all that....)

Bob A

It happened before during the previous time Hillary ran. So it could happen again. I doubt it will. Hillary's more experienced now and Sanders, while very likeable, doesn't have the oratory power that Obama did/does.

We'll see what happens. I'm ok with either Democrat candidate. I personally prefer Sanders, but I think Hillary would stand a better chance against Trump. And while I think it would be a fascinating spectacle to see Trump (or Donald S. Cherry) as president of the U.S., I would also want to make sure I knew where the nearest fallout shelter was.

Steve

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

An update.....

Bernie wins again. Wisconsin.

Next up is Wyoming on April 9.
Then the big one, New York on April 19.

Still a steep climb for Sanders, but he keeps going.
He still needs 57% of the remaining pledged delegates to win a majority.
If he does, do the super delegates reconsider their votes?

Meanwhile at the circus, Trump loses Wisconsin to Cruz.
Trump, what a loser!

Hi Bob G

The answer to your question: Nope (The Democratic Party Establishment (DPE) will shoot anyone who tries - right to bear arms and all that....)

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

An update.....

Bernie wins again. Wisconsin.

Next up is Wyoming on April 9.
Then the big one, New York on April 19.

Still a steep climb for Sanders, but he keeps going.
He still needs 57% of the remaining pledged delegates to win a majority.
If he does, do the super delegates reconsider their votes?

Meanwhile at the circus, Trump loses Wisconsin to Cruz.
Trump, what a loser!

[Frank Dixon]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

I don't think Sanders can win the nomination. But his resilience and willingness to speak out on major issues are making the Democratic campaign very interesting. The way he is presenting these issues should resonate right through the presidential race, with the election set for early November.

[Bob Gillanders]

Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.

Today, 3 states are voting: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington.
Sanders is expected to do well.

Sanders still has a hill to climb, but…...

An update...
Sanders sweeps all 3 states: winning 104 of 142 pledged delegates. 73%
If Bernie can win another 988 pledged delegates (57% of those yet to be contested), then he wins a majority of pledged delegates. Still a steep climb, but........

Next up, Wisconsin on April 5

The race is not over. And if the birds could vote!