Chippawa open chess tournament, May 02, 03

[Hans Jung]

Thats worse case scenario (notice he's limiting it)

[Bob Armstrong]

Hi Bob G:

It's been a while since we lunched and solved the world's problems.

I think Erik and I, though we do well on solving these problems, probably have to have you join us at Mofer Coffee to put the fine edge on it!! We'll let you know - want to come to Danforth Ave & Coxwell Ave. in the Centre of the Universe? There is some parking on the side streets and south of Danforth in front of the TTC office.

Bob A

[Peter McKillop]

... The world will not end, but homo-sapien civilization is in terrible danger, and it could certainly end. ... {my bold}

That would be a major plus for every other life form left on the planet after we're done trashing it.

[Brad Thomson]

That would be a major plus for every other life form left on the planet after we're done trashing it.

Which may be why Nature, which always maintains a sort of harmonious balance, creates diseases that affect our numbers and powers to pollute and overpopulate.

[Bob Armstrong]

Hi Brad & Peter:

Up where we have our hobby farm, there once were too many groundhogs. As Brad says, Nature has a way of handling imbalance. The number of coyotes grew and the number of groundhogs in sync lessened. Then there grew to be too many coyotes, with no natural local predator.......the coyotes got a disease that started killing them off....

We come to NOW - the human imbalancer in all aspects of nature - earth, water, air....

The science reports refer to Nature's penchant for balance and sustainability. And if we can change our ways, they say that Nature can regain its balance.

BUT.....A FATAL BUT.......Our planetary Nature has what is called a "Tipping Point"...this is the point of no return for Nature......once we pass the "Tipping Point" all the science says that Nature will then establish a "New Normal". It will be incapable of putting Earth back where it always has been. We will have successfully robbed it of re-balancing back to our survival environment.

The New Normal: All the science says that the new environment, and Nature's new balancing of it, will be lethal to much of life as we know it on Earth at present.

Oh, life will continue...but it will be of the type that can thrive in this new normal environment.......and apparently that is not going to be us, and many of other living species currently inhabiting the same Nature we are destroying for them. So, Peter, we are not a plus to most current life forms inhabiting this planet with us.....we are committing homicide as far as they are concerned.

Who knows what will inhabit earth after we reach the Tipping Point, and the die-off phase (Which might stretch out for a short while) ends for those that cannot adapt.

I'm not a scientist, and so jump all over me if I am presenting "false news".....

Bob A

[Erik Malmsten]

10% of the population!! Wow, Erik's numbers have escalated quickly.
You guys must have fascinating conversation over coffee.
But maybe Erik should stick to decaf.

10% in countries without a sufficient medical infrastructure, I was trying to project the WORSE case to see Brad's end of civilization. So far, social isolation has helped flatten the curve, but there is still no cure. Canada is doing very well and deaths may not reach 200. I haven't reached the bottom of my bag of Ethiopian coffee, then I'll panic. Party on, Bob.

[Brad Thomson]

...but there is still no cure.

If none arrives then sooner or later we will all get it. This means a 2-3% drop in the population worldwide. The flu has never gone away, nor has the common cold, but we have had some success with AIDS, SARS and Ebola. Diseases morph, sometimes they get far worse. No one can predict what will happen for sure. I do not predict anything, I simply suggest that we need to assume the worst case scenario just in case it is the true scenario. If we assume the best our chances of lessening the damage are greatly reduced. If we assume the worst then at least we will mitigate this to the greatest extent possible.

[Brad Thomson]

..we are committing homicide as far as they are concerned.

Yes, and this may be why Nature is reacting as it is. We have overpopulated and over-polluted to the point where Nature simply will not stand for it any longer. I do not believe that this is by conscious design on the part of Nature, that would make it sound like "God" had a hand in it. I have no such beliefs. Nature, it seems to me, is governed by entirely blind and necessary laws, most of which we do not understand. Our arrogance, stupidity and love of money is fast catching up with us. The problem is that if we get through this we will likely only become arrogant, stupid and greedy once again. We will hold a huge party and shoot off fireworks, then return to our old ways. Sooner or later Nature will snuff us if this is the case.

[Aris Marghetis]

... Diseases morph, sometimes they get far worse. ...

The study of how these things morph is very interesting. The best environment for mutation is a LOT of transmission, which given initial worldwide lack of immunity to COVID-19, is precisely what's happening. No immunity leads to mass transmissions which leads to fertile environment for mutations. Sometime a few days ago I was reading a report that it seems this is already happening, just not horribly-for-the-worse. If I remember correctly (I can't find the darn report again), there are already 6 strains of COVID-19, but with none being way worse than the others. Hope it stays that way.

[Brad Thomson]

Hope it stays that way.

That is all we really can do in the long run. Even the best efforts at mitigation may only prolong the inevitable a little longer. We simply do not know. Homo-sapiens are at a pivotal moment in their history. Nature will decide.

We are all in this together.

[Vadim Tsypin]

If I remember correctly (I can't find the darn report again), there are already 6 strains of COVID-19, but with none being way worse than the others. Hope it stays that way.

Hello Aris,

This is a site that compiles data on all sequenced genomes of the novel coronavirus (2241 so far). Here is a direct link to an animation that illustrates transmission of mutated strains all over the world. Better to watch on a non-mobile device since propagation is shown in two windows in parallel.

Everyone, stay healthy and safe!

[Gordon Gooding]

Hi all, in light of recent developments, we have decided to reschedule to a later date to be determined. Stay safe, keep your spirits up and hopefully we will diel over the board, face to face not too long in the future .

Gordon

[Vlad Drkulec]

I am not sure of your intent Halldor, but I do think that all of us should be using the word "if" rather than the word "when" in this context. Everyone seems to think that this is overblown, but what if it is under-blown? We simply must assume the worst case scenario just in case it is the true case scenario. We must risk overreacting to make sure that we do not under-react. The world will not end, but homo-sapien civilization is in terrible danger, and it could certainly end. Politicians and "experts" tell us not to panic or be in fear!? It seems to me that fear and panic are fully appropriate and necessary, lest we not be motivated to take the situation seriously. We are still very early in this process, it is only going to keep getting worse. Mankind is at a crossroads, I do not like his chances.

Oh come on. You and I and Bob and others could come to an end if we don't social distance but civilization will go on even if the worst case situation materializes. Worst case scenario is we have one of those science fiction scenarios where all the old people or adults over sixty die. The kids will go on. They might have to lower the retirement age to 55.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Yes, and this may be why Nature is reacting as it is. We have overpopulated and over-polluted to the point where Nature simply will not stand for it any longer. I do not believe that this is by conscious design on the part of Nature, that would make it sound like "God" had a hand in it. I have no such beliefs. Nature, it seems to me, is governed by entirely blind and necessary laws, most of which we do not understand. Our arrogance, stupidity and love of money is fast catching up with us. The problem is that if we get through this we will likely only become arrogant, stupid and greedy once again. We will hold a huge party and shoot off fireworks, then return to our old ways. Sooner or later Nature will snuff us if this is the case.

This is Gaian nonsense. We are part of nature. Nature is not a living, sentient being. About 1% or less of the people that catch the virus will die. It will not change anything and if the Wuhan market and other markets like it continue to sell live bats and other exotic animals as food other novel diseases will emerge from wild populations. Viruses and diseases evolve to not kill their hosts. When they jump species is when things get a little dicey. Of course from an evolutionary biology perspective this virus does not really affect population growth curves as it targets those who are done reproducing for the most part.

This situation is not because of the love of money. It is because of the love of exotic foods and not closing borders fast enough.

[Vlad Drkulec]

So, Peter, we are not a plus to most current life forms inhabiting this planet with us.....we are committing homicide as far as they are concerned.

Anthropomorphize much?