Can Biden win?

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  • Can Biden win?

    Can Trump win again?

    The answer is both Yes and No. IMHO, in a free and fair election, Biden would win in a landslide. But the USA is a divided nation on the brink of civil war, with rampant corruption, and a broken election process. Literally anything can happen.

    I find the easier question to ask: Can Joe Biden win?

    There are 51 jurisdictions with electoral college votes, 50 states plus DC. Of those everyone agrees 36 of them are either Red or Blue, only the 15 battleground states are in play.

    Biden starts with 182 Blue State votes. He needs to get to 270 to win.
    So, we focus on the 15 battleground states. I wish the pollsters would stop doing national polls which are pointless.

    Polls for Colorado and Virginia show big leads for Biden, and Clinton won, so add 22 votes.

    Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico: Biden leads in the polls by >5 points and they have Democratic Governors. Total votes: 40 votes.

    Now Biden has a total of 244 votes. He just needs 26 to get to 270.

    Pennsylvania 20 votes – Biden has a lead, but <5 points, with a Democratic Governor.

    Arizona 11 votes – Biden has a lead, <5 points, but a Republican Governor
    New Hampshire 4 votes – Biden has a lead >5 points, but a Republican Governor
    North Carolina 15 votes – Biden has a slim lead, Democratic Governor but State Government is dominated by Republicans
    Wisconsin 10 votes – Biden has a lead >5 points, a Democratic Governor, but previous Governor Scott Walker may have significant influence?

    So, can he find the 26 votes needed from this group? No guarantees! They all could subject to election shenanigans!

    What’s left. Trump leads in Ohio and Georgia.
    Biden leads in Florida, but it’s Florida, enough said.

    The majority of mail-in ballots are expected to be Democratic votes. Hence the attacks on the post office. Despite being called out, the damage to the post office will not be reversed in time. The Democratic vote will be suppressed by some ballots not getting delivered in time. How many? Even if they are all counted eventually, reporting on election night may give the false impression of a Trump win. This is being dubbed Red Mirage. You can expect Trump will try and shutdown the counting early and claim victory.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post
    Can Trump win again?

    The answer is both Yes and No. IMHO, in a free and fair election, Biden would win in a landslide. But the USA is a divided nation on the brink of civil war, with rampant corruption, and a broken election process. Literally anything can happen.

    I find the easier question to ask: Can Joe Biden win?

    There are 51 jurisdictions with electoral college votes, 50 states plus DC. Of those everyone agrees 36 of them are either Red or Blue, only the 15 battleground states are in play.

    Biden starts with 182 Blue State votes. He needs to get to 270 to win.
    So, we focus on the 15 battleground states. I wish the pollsters would stop doing national polls which are pointless.

    Polls for Colorado and Virginia show big leads for Biden, and Clinton won, so add 22 votes.

    Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico: Biden leads in the polls by >5 points and they have Democratic Governors. Total votes: 40 votes.

    Now Biden has a total of 244 votes. He just needs 26 to get to 270.

    Pennsylvania 20 votes – Biden has a lead, but <5 points, with a Democratic Governor.

    Arizona 11 votes – Biden has a lead, <5 points, but a Republican Governor
    New Hampshire 4 votes – Biden has a lead >5 points, but a Republican Governor
    North Carolina 15 votes – Biden has a slim lead, Democratic Governor but State Government is dominated by Republicans
    Wisconsin 10 votes – Biden has a lead >5 points, a Democratic Governor, but previous Governor Scott Walker may have significant influence?

    So, can he find the 26 votes needed from this group? No guarantees! They all could subject to election shenanigans!

    What’s left. Trump leads in Ohio and Georgia.
    Biden leads in Florida, but it’s Florida, enough said.

    The majority of mail-in ballots are expected to be Democratic votes. Hence the attacks on the post office. Despite being called out, the damage to the post office will not be reversed in time. The Democratic vote will be suppressed by some ballots not getting delivered in time. How many? Even if they are all counted eventually, reporting on election night may give the false impression of a Trump win. This is being dubbed Red Mirage. You can expect Trump will try and shutdown the counting early and claim victory.

    Isn't it true that many states (not sure which ones) have some kind of "proportional representation" system of electoral vote assignment? Meaning if say Biden won in such a state with 60% of the vote, he gets 60% of the electoral votes for that state.

    Are you counting all the electoral votes in each state as going to the winner of that state? I'm not sure that is the case for every one of these states.

    Comment


    • #3
      Why are non-chess topics such as this (and the Covid ones) being posted on a chess site? There is an off-topic group on the CFC chat site for such subjects.

      I have left other groups due to such matters, and I don't want to have to leave this one.

      Thank you.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Hugh Brodie View Post
        Why are non-chess topics such as this (and the Covid ones) being posted on a chess site? There is an off-topic group on the CFC chat site for such subjects.

        I have left other groups due to such matters, and I don't want to have to leave this one.

        Thank you.
        There are also threads about Covid - and not just about how chess in general is affected by Covid (which would make sense on a chess website...
        It is what it is ... oops sorry. More politico.

        Comment


        • #5
          "48 of the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., award all of their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote there. Only two states award their electoral votes in a different manner. They are Nebraska and Maine." Google is your friend. Sometimes.

          Comment


          • #6
            I fully agree with Hugh. Let's not contaminate this forum with topics unrelated to chess. Nothing good will come of it.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Hugh Brodie View Post
              Why are non-chess topics such as this (and the Covid ones) being posted on a chess site?
              Hugh, you and I met about 27 years ago, I met Hans more than 30 years ago, I met Neil more than 26 years ago now, I have known Tom for about 28 years, and I have known many others who post here for at least 25 years or more. But as someone once sang, "I don't get around much any more." I very much enjoy keeping in touch with yourself and all of the others in this manner, and on topics both chess-related and not. I would be far less likely to check in as often as I do if the topics were only chess-related. This I admit would probably please some of the posters here. :)

              Comment


              • #8
                With respect to the original question, can Biden win, it seems clear that America itself will lose this election, period.

                Comment


                • #9
                  The Democrats could win the 2020 popular vote in the presidential election by up to 5 million votes, perhaps more (they won last time by more than 3 million, and lost the election), and still lose the electoral college, due to the over-representation of smaller states at that level, most of which favour Trump. Electoral college counts by state are set up by adding each state's senator numbers to its congressional representation number; this also applies to the District of Columbia for this level only; since D.C. does NOT have formal representation in Congress, not being a state (DC gets 3 at the electoral college).
                  Also, concerning Congress, with 435 members, arrangement of congressional districts within the states is decided by state legislatures, unlike in Canada, where Parliament and Elections Canada ensure a much fairer distribution for us. State governance has been dominantly Republican for the past 20 years. This system may be changing, according to recent court decisions.
                  For Biden / Harris to win, the Democrats need a very heavy turnout, and a fair count. Again, Canada does much better on both areas there.
                  I am OK with COVID-19 and U.S. election topics on this site, so long as discussion remains respectful. Both are absolutely central to where Canada is headed.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Pargat Perrer View Post


                    Isn't it true that many states (not sure which ones) have some kind of "proportional representation" system of electoral vote assignment? Meaning if say Biden won in such a state with 60% of the vote, he gets 60% of the electoral votes for that state.

                    Are you counting all the electoral votes in each state as going to the winner of that state? I'm not sure that is the case for every one of these states.
                    You are thinking of the party primary system where the party picks their candidate. Many of the states in the Democratic primary are some form of proportional system for candidates who get over a specific threshold amount. For the Presidential College system, except for a couple of oddball states, all the electoral college votes for a state goes to the winner.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      During Barely There Biden's publicity jaunt over to Kenosha to hustle the African American vote he had this to say...

                      "People fear that which is different. We've got to, for example, why in God's name don't we teach history in history classes? A Black man invented the light bulb, not a White guy named Edison,".

                      ***

                      Yeppers folks, that right there is presidential material. Barely There Biden got some kind of hustle!!!

                      He can say most anything he wants. He and his publicity team of ... CNN & Co. ... will make it seem like your favorite furry cat. That oh so cozy feelin' that Barely There Biden is one of us! Or is it one of you? Doesn't matter, does it?

                      Biden is not going to win in 2020 ... CNN & Co. will do that for him.

                      :))))

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Hugh Brodie View Post
                        Why are non-chess topics such as this (and the Covid ones) being posted on a chess site? There is an off-topic group on the CFC chat site for such subjects.

                        I have left other groups due to such matters, and I don't want to have to leave this one.

                        Thank you.
                        I would say it is quite clear which threads are chess related and which ones are not. And the non-chess ones are getting more engagement. And what Brad said.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post
                          Can Trump win again?

                          The answer is both Yes and No. IMHO, in a free and fair election, Biden would win in a landslide. But the USA is a divided nation on the brink of civil war, with rampant corruption, and a broken election process. Literally anything can happen.

                          I find the easier question to ask: Can Joe Biden win?

                          There are 51 jurisdictions with electoral college votes, 50 states plus DC. Of those everyone agrees 36 of them are either Red or Blue, only the 15 battleground states are in play.
                          Trump is higher in the polls at the moment than he was in 2016 at the same point. That is after three and a half years of Russia, Russia, Russia and Impeach, Impeach, Impeach plus the COVID pandemic and associated recession and unemployment spikes. Teflon Don, indeed. The more correct private political party polls show a much closer race, The polls done by the media over sample democrat voters and under sample republicans. Biden said that he would wait until after Labour Day to campaign but the polls have him out of his Delaware basement because his internal party polls show that he is bleeding support at the moment. People kind of notice the violence and burning buildings in democrat cities and they don't believe the narrative of nothing to see here. Too bad the Biden campaign worked to bail out rioters.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Vlad Drkulec View Post

                            Trump is higher in the polls at the moment than he was in 2016 at the same point. That is after three and a half years of Russia, Russia, Russia and Impeach, Impeach, Impeach plus the COVID pandemic and associated recession and unemployment spikes. Teflon Don, indeed. The more correct private political party polls show a much closer race, The polls done by the media over sample democrat voters and under sample republicans. Biden said that he would wait until after Labour Day to campaign but the polls have him out of his Delaware basement because his internal party polls show that he is bleeding support at the moment. People kind of notice the violence and burning buildings in democrat cities and they don't believe the narrative of nothing to see here. Too bad the Biden campaign worked to bail out rioters.
                            On September 5th 2016, the polling aggregate on RealClearPolitics had Hillary ahead by 3.3 points: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
                            FiveThirtyEight had Hillary ahead by 3.7: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ational-polls/

                            Biden's current aggregate is +7 on RealClearPolitics, and +7.5 on FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight shows his total support as higher than at this point in 2016 (although RCP does not), but that doesn't really mean anything on its own when you're running against another person. Biden's lead is currently over two times higher than Hillary's was at this point.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Lucas Davies View Post

                              On September 5th 2016, the polling aggregate on RealClearPolitics had Hillary ahead by 3.3 points: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
                              FiveThirtyEight had Hillary ahead by 3.7: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ational-polls/

                              Biden's current aggregate is +7 on RealClearPolitics, and +7.5 on FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight shows his total support as higher than at this point in 2016 (although RCP does not), but that doesn't really mean anything on its own when you're running against another person. Biden's lead is currently over two times higher than Hillary's was at this point.
                              Won't you be surprised then, when Trump wins.

                              Comment

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