Can Biden win?

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  • Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

    I forgot about that 2/3 rule. Damn. Well, still possible. I would try anyway.
    Are you trying to start another revolutionary war? The Dems didn't do too well in the last one.

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    • Journalist Andy Ngo contacted the Proud Boys. They claim Mr. Swinney is not now, nor has ever been, a member. Of course they could be lying, but how could any journalist know that?

      I highly recommend Mr. Ngo's Twitter feed. He routinely tweets the names and pictures of BLM/antifa "protesters" who are arrested and charged with various crimes then released without bail.

      The present leader of the Proud Boys is Enrique Tarrio, who is also the leader of Latinos for Trump.
      "Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.

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      • I'm tied up working online all day, but someone has just emailed me the following. Hell, is this bloody true?!?!

        "It turns out that he knew he was positive BEFORE he went to two different states and three social gatherings to campaign and raise money. Thus, he knew he might infect others but did not care, he was going to act like he was clean until and unless he became symptomatic. This is beyond evil and sick."

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        • In the magazine Zoomer November issue they have the article Decoding the older Brain - Biden vs Trump.

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          • Originally posted by Aris Marghetis View Post
            I'm tied up working online all day, but someone has just emailed me the following. Hell, is this bloody true?!?!

            "It turns out that he knew he was positive BEFORE he went to two different states and three social gatherings to campaign and raise money. Thus, he knew he might infect others but did not care, he was going to act like he was clean until and unless he became symptomatic. This is beyond evil and sick."
            They've walked that timeline back, and as we all know they would never ever lie.

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            • Well now, back to the exercise of predicting the Presidential race.
              A lot has happened since my last analysis, the debate, Trump getting COVID, but the polls that count haven't changed a whole lot.
              Biden needs to get to 270 electoral college votes.
              With the blue states, and a few battleground states where he has a comfortable lead plus a democratic state legislature, he gets to 233.
              He needs another 37 votes to reach 270.
              There are 8 battleground states where he leads in the polls, but have a Republican legislature. Total votes = 135.
              If Biden can win any combination with at least 37 votes, he gets at least 270. Biden wins.

              Conversely, Trump has 170 votes from Red States, so needs another 100 votes to reach 270.
              Trump needs to win at least 6 of these states to reach at least 270 and win.

              The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
              Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
              Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
              Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
              Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
              North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
              Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
              Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
              Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points

              Biden needs 37 to win, Trump needs 100 to win.

              But with all the voter suppression tactics and sabotage at the post office,
              too close to call.
              Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Sunday, 4th October, 2020, 08:00 PM.

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              • Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post
                Well now, back to the exercise of predicting the Presidential race.
                A lot has happened since my last analysis, the debate, Trump getting COVID, but the polls that count haven't changed a whole lot.
                Biden needs to get to 270 electoral college votes.
                With the blue states, and a few battleground states where he has a comfortable lead plus a democratic state legislature, he gets to 233.
                He needs another 37 votes to reach 270.
                There are 8 battleground states where he leads in the polls, but have a Republican legislature. Total votes = 135.
                If Biden can win any combination with at least 37 votes, he gets at least 270. Biden wins.

                Conversely, Trump has 170 votes from Red States, so needs another 100 votes to reach 270.
                Trump needs to win at least 6 of these states to reach at least 270 and win.



                Thank you for your detailed analysis, Bob. It would be more helpful if you name the 8 battleground states on which the result would depend...

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                • Originally posted by Dilip Panjwani View Post

                  Thank you for your detailed analysis, Bob. It would be more helpful if you name the 8 battleground states on which the result would depend...
                  From Bob's post (which I think you sort of quoted?):

                  The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
                  Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
                  Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
                  Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
                  Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
                  North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
                  Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
                  Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
                  Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points
                  ...Mike Pence: the Lord of the fly.

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                  • Originally posted by Kerry Liles View Post

                    From Bob's post (which I think you sort of quoted?):

                    The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
                    Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
                    Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
                    Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
                    Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
                    North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
                    Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
                    Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
                    Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points
                    Hi Kerry, I add this after Dilip's post.

                    Biden needs 37 votes from this group.
                    He should be able to get Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, 46 points.

                    But let's not count our chickens too soon.
                    Will Trump get a sympathy vote?
                    Notice how nobody is talking about his taxes anymore!!

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                    • Updating my 8 battleground states this morning,
                      Biden leads the polls in all 8.

                      ​​​​​​Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
                      Florida 29 votes - 3.6 points
                      Georgia 16 votes - 0.8 points
                      Michigan 16 votes - 7.2 points
                      North Carolina 15 votes - 2.0 points
                      Ohio 18 votes - 0.4 points
                      Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points
                      Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.9 points

                      All moving in favour of Biden except Ohio.

                      Will it be enough to overcome Trump's attempts to steal the election?

                      Trump left the hospital last night and back at the White House.
                      Will that get him any votes?

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                      • After 3 days break, bookmakers provide numbers for Trump-Biden fight. Trump has about 40-41% chances, similar to numbers he had after debates. Looks like this story with his virus doesn't have much impact.

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                        • Originally posted by Victor Plotkin View Post
                          After 3 days break, bookmakers provide numbers for Trump-Biden fight. Trump has about 40-41% chances, similar to numbers he had after debates. Looks like this story with his virus doesn't have much impact.
                          Victor, I would be very interested to know the bookmaker odds on each of my battleground states!!

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                          • Before this 3-day break with Trump's virus, this site provided odds for many battleground states. Not now.

                            https://www.sportsinteraction.com/sp...tions-betting/

                            My favorite bookmaker, marathonbet.com still doesn't provide odds at all for US election. Hopefully, it needs more time.

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                            • I declared some time ago that Biden wins in a free and fair election.
                              But it is difficult to predict the outcome with so many voter suppression tactics in play.
                              One huge new wild card is the sabotage at the post office.

                              A second huge wild card is the scenario of states with Republican legislatures overturning the will of the people.
                              A big enough win at the polls should discourage states to go down that road.

                              With that in mind,

                              I have moved Michigan and Wisconsin into the Biden win category.
                              These both have Republican legislatures, but they do have Democrat Governors and a 7 point lead,
                              so any attempt to overturn the vote would likely not be successful.

                              That gives Biden a total of 259 votes.

                              The 6 battleground states are now (Biden leads all in the polls)

                              ​​​​​​Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
                              Florida 29 votes - 3.5 points
                              Georgia 16 votes - 0.9 points
                              North Carolina 15 votes - 2.2 points
                              Ohio 18 votes - 0.5 points
                              Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points

                              So now Biden only needs to win any one of these 6 to reach 270 and win.

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                              • Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

                                I have moved Michigan and Wisconsin into the Biden win category.
                                These both have Republican legislatures, but they do have Democrat Governors and a 7 point lead,
                                so any attempt to overturn the vote would likely not be successful.

                                That gives Biden a total of 259 votes.

                                The 6 battleground states are now (Biden leads all in the polls)

                                ​​​​​​Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
                                Florida 29 votes - 3.5 points
                                Georgia 16 votes - 0.9 points
                                North Carolina 15 votes - 2.2 points
                                Ohio 18 votes - 0.5 points
                                Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points

                                So now Biden only needs to win any one of these 6 to reach 270 and win.
                                Historic President Vote by State
                                2016/2012/2008/2004/2000/1996

                                3 went democrat
                                Michigan R D D D D D D
                                Pennsylvania R D D D D D
                                Wisconsin R D D D D D

                                2 mixed
                                Ohio R D D R R D
                                Florida R D D R R R

                                3 went republican
                                North Carolina R R D R R R
                                Arizona R R R R R D
                                Georgia R R R R R R

                                (from wikipedia)

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