Originally posted by Bob Gillanders
View Post
Can Biden win?
Collapse
X
-
Journalist Andy Ngo contacted the Proud Boys. They claim Mr. Swinney is not now, nor has ever been, a member. Of course they could be lying, but how could any journalist know that?
I highly recommend Mr. Ngo's Twitter feed. He routinely tweets the names and pictures of BLM/antifa "protesters" who are arrested and charged with various crimes then released without bail.
The present leader of the Proud Boys is Enrique Tarrio, who is also the leader of Latinos for Trump."Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
Comment
-
I'm tied up working online all day, but someone has just emailed me the following. Hell, is this bloody true?!?!
"It turns out that he knew he was positive BEFORE he went to two different states and three social gatherings to campaign and raise money. Thus, he knew he might infect others but did not care, he was going to act like he was clean until and unless he became symptomatic. This is beyond evil and sick."
Comment
-
Originally posted by Aris Marghetis View PostI'm tied up working online all day, but someone has just emailed me the following. Hell, is this bloody true?!?!
"It turns out that he knew he was positive BEFORE he went to two different states and three social gatherings to campaign and raise money. Thus, he knew he might infect others but did not care, he was going to act like he was clean until and unless he became symptomatic. This is beyond evil and sick."
Comment
-
Well now, back to the exercise of predicting the Presidential race.
A lot has happened since my last analysis, the debate, Trump getting COVID, but the polls that count haven't changed a whole lot.
Biden needs to get to 270 electoral college votes.
With the blue states, and a few battleground states where he has a comfortable lead plus a democratic state legislature, he gets to 233.
He needs another 37 votes to reach 270.
There are 8 battleground states where he leads in the polls, but have a Republican legislature. Total votes = 135.
If Biden can win any combination with at least 37 votes, he gets at least 270. Biden wins.
Conversely, Trump has 170 votes from Red States, so needs another 100 votes to reach 270.
Trump needs to win at least 6 of these states to reach at least 270 and win.
The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points
Biden needs 37 to win, Trump needs 100 to win.
But with all the voter suppression tactics and sabotage at the post office,
too close to call.Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Sunday, 4th October, 2020, 08:00 PM.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View PostWell now, back to the exercise of predicting the Presidential race.
A lot has happened since my last analysis, the debate, Trump getting COVID, but the polls that count haven't changed a whole lot.
Biden needs to get to 270 electoral college votes.
With the blue states, and a few battleground states where he has a comfortable lead plus a democratic state legislature, he gets to 233.
He needs another 37 votes to reach 270.
There are 8 battleground states where he leads in the polls, but have a Republican legislature. Total votes = 135.
If Biden can win any combination with at least 37 votes, he gets at least 270. Biden wins.
Conversely, Trump has 170 votes from Red States, so needs another 100 votes to reach 270.
Trump needs to win at least 6 of these states to reach at least 270 and win.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Dilip Panjwani View Post
Thank you for your detailed analysis, Bob. It would be more helpful if you name the 8 battleground states on which the result would depend...
The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points...Mike Pence: the Lord of the fly.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Kerry Liles View Post
From Bob's post (which I think you sort of quoted?):
The 8 battleground states are (and Biden leads by)
Arizona 11 votes - 3.3 points
Florida 29 votes - 2.8 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.5 points
Michigan 16 votes - 6.8 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 1.3 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.6 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 5.9 points
Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.6 points
Biden needs 37 votes from this group.
He should be able to get Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, 46 points.
But let's not count our chickens too soon.
Will Trump get a sympathy vote?
Notice how nobody is talking about his taxes anymore!!
Comment
-
Updating my 8 battleground states this morning,
Biden leads the polls in all 8.
Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
Florida 29 votes - 3.6 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.8 points
Michigan 16 votes - 7.2 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 2.0 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.4 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points
Wisconsin 10 votes - 6.9 points
All moving in favour of Biden except Ohio.
Will it be enough to overcome Trump's attempts to steal the election?
Trump left the hospital last night and back at the White House.
Will that get him any votes?
Comment
-
Originally posted by Victor Plotkin View PostAfter 3 days break, bookmakers provide numbers for Trump-Biden fight. Trump has about 40-41% chances, similar to numbers he had after debates. Looks like this story with his virus doesn't have much impact.
Comment
-
Before this 3-day break with Trump's virus, this site provided odds for many battleground states. Not now.
https://www.sportsinteraction.com/sp...tions-betting/
My favorite bookmaker, marathonbet.com still doesn't provide odds at all for US election. Hopefully, it needs more time.
Comment
-
I declared some time ago that Biden wins in a free and fair election.
But it is difficult to predict the outcome with so many voter suppression tactics in play.
One huge new wild card is the sabotage at the post office.
A second huge wild card is the scenario of states with Republican legislatures overturning the will of the people.
A big enough win at the polls should discourage states to go down that road.
With that in mind,
I have moved Michigan and Wisconsin into the Biden win category.
These both have Republican legislatures, but they do have Democrat Governors and a 7 point lead,
so any attempt to overturn the vote would likely not be successful.
That gives Biden a total of 259 votes.
The 6 battleground states are now (Biden leads all in the polls)
Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
Florida 29 votes - 3.5 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.9 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 2.2 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.5 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points
So now Biden only needs to win any one of these 6 to reach 270 and win.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post
I have moved Michigan and Wisconsin into the Biden win category.
These both have Republican legislatures, but they do have Democrat Governors and a 7 point lead,
so any attempt to overturn the vote would likely not be successful.
That gives Biden a total of 259 votes.
The 6 battleground states are now (Biden leads all in the polls)
Arizona 11 votes - 4.4 points
Florida 29 votes - 3.5 points
Georgia 16 votes - 0.9 points
North Carolina 15 votes - 2.2 points
Ohio 18 votes - 0.5 points
Pennsylvania 20 votes - 6.3 points
So now Biden only needs to win any one of these 6 to reach 270 and win.
2016/2012/2008/2004/2000/1996
3 went democrat
Michigan R D D D D D D
Pennsylvania R D D D D D
Wisconsin R D D D D D
2 mixed
Ohio R D D R R D
Florida R D D R R R
3 went republican
North Carolina R R D R R R
Arizona R R R R R D
Georgia R R R R R R
(from wikipedia)
Comment
Comment