Niemann - Carlsen

[Neil Frarey]

I am very impressed by Niemann's play & I think his mentor Maxim Dlugy must have been doing a great job.
Magnus Carlsen

https://youtu.be/c50PJmOj2-U?t=55

Sept. 21, 2022

[Walter De Jong]

I watched the Yosha video. Then browsed the reddit thread. A quote from the reddit thread that resonated strongly with me: "I have a background in math and if I know one thing it's that probability theory is hard. I took probability theory and measure theory (still have nightmares from that), and if I know one thing it's this: Probability theory is counter intuitive".

I don't know if Niemann cheated. But I'd wager that Ken Regan's understanding of probability is considerably better than Yosha's. She made some obvious mistakes, as reddit user ikanhear points out.

[Mario Moran-Venegas]

I find Carlsen's behavior normal . How would you act if someone threatened your livelihood?
There is an elephant in this room: Max Dugly...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxim_Dlugy

[Neil Frarey]

A few aspects of Carlsen's erratic behavior are super telling.

Carlsen tried the rare 4.g3 Nimzo, he made an early mistake which resulted in an unpleasant endgame.
Carlsen when asked in a public interview gave Niemann, and his crew, a very favorable and very public valuation of Niemann's impressive play.
Carlsen's latest comment failed prove Niemann cheated.

Is it time to drag Carlsen and chesscom into court?

[Brad Thomson]

For normal criminal investigations the police look for both motive and opportunity. If Neimann cheated his motive is obvious, but what about opportunity? In other words, how the hell does he do it given the anti-cheating protocols in place?

I am beginning to suspect that Magnus threw the game in Saint Louis in order to be able to start this whole mess. If Magnus had crushed Niemann in the game, how much credence could we give to the accusations of cheating? Would Magnus or could Magnus have even made them in the first place?

And even if Niemann turns out to be guilty as charged, the way Magnus has handled this is pathetic.

[Joshua Guo]

Isn't anyone else really uncomfortable with the disparities between the Yosha/Hikaru videos and this:

https://en.chessbase.com/post/is-han...regan-analyzes

You will have to read it yourself (or watch video in it's entirety), there are many details to explain. People are debating Yosha's video on reddit too https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comme..._games_played/

Essentially I think the takeaways are:
1) Statistically, there are different ways to measure accuracy and/or engine-move correlation.
2) Hans didn't cheat every game or every move, of course at his level he doesn't need to. It's about checking how much variance (compared to other GMs) there are over a sizable sample where Hans is suspected of cheating.
3) Non-statistically, there are a number of games that just don't past the "smell test". And only strong players should judge this. For example, his Ng6-g4-h2 computer-like maneuver against Mistra. https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2123031

The crazy thing is - not only Black chooses to trap his N on h2 with no clear attacking follow-up, if Black were to play this weird idea one move later (for example a normal move like 0-0-0 and then Nfg4), it doesn't work. Because 16.... 0-0-0 17.Qe2 Nfg4 18 d4 wins.

[Mario Moran-Venegas]

A solution to the future of OTB tournaments is an RF shielded room such as NORAD has had North of Canada for years.

[Mario Moran-Venegas]

From that article in chessbase:
"The verdict


Dr. Regan analyzed all of Hans Niemann's games over the last two years, including online games, such as played on Chess.com and their events, and his conclusion is there is no reason whatsoever to suspect him of cheating. The wide range of results in a bell curve, with some good and some bad, is actually a sign of a healthy distribution of results. Many of the so-called points of suspicion are in fact quite normal and suspicion is really the result of faulty analysis by zealous amateurs. Even online his play has been quite devoid of anything unusual."

As Yosha mentions Ken Regan's work we have a problem with the conclusion/verdict reaching from the statistical data.
With so many Nieman OTB games in 2020 and 2021 reaching 100% correlation to engine moves, statistically you can say not enough data.

My conclusion is that there is cheating.
Time to revise how cheating statistics are viewed. This is a huge job and will need a team with more resources than Kenneth Regan has presently access to . I think he should be part of that new team.

[Aris Marghetis]

Isn't anyone else really uncomfortable with the disparities between the Yosha/Hikaru videos and this:

https://en.chessbase.com/post/is-han...regan-analyzes

[Mario Moran-Venegas]

Looks like I will not cancel my chess.com membership after all.
Carlsen and chess.com knew about Nieman before St Louis tournament.
I call on FIDE to revoke Hans Niemans' GM title and forbid him from playing any FIDE rated tournament.

[Joshua Guo]

"Probability don't lie" ?? Probability NOTEQUAL Certainty

Watch the whole video, when the probability is 99.98%, that's pretty certain.

[Kerry Liles]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjtbXxA8Fcc

This is pretty sufficient evidence Hans cheated.
Probability don't lie. Hans games over the past 3 years are being compared with accuracy of prime Fischer games and Feller (who cheated years back) games.

I was convinced after his ridiculous interview after the Firouzja game in St Louis. Now Carlsen's is saying he wasn't even concentrating during their game?
That's just too much.

"Probability don't lie" ?? Probability NOTEQUAL Certainty

[Joshua Guo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjtbXxA8Fcc

This is pretty sufficient evidence Hans cheated.
Probability don't lie. Hans games over the past 3 years are being compared with accuracy of prime Fischer games and Feller (who cheated years back) games.

I was convinced after his ridiculous interview after the Firouzja game in St Louis. Now Carlsen's is saying he wasn't even concentrating during their game?
That's just too much.

[Brad Thomson]

Of course, Carlsen's statement is not sufficient. He should go away and tend to his mental health.

[Neil Frarey]

Ben Finegold ...

Probably @MagnusCarlsen should retire and get on some FIDE commission on cheating. Awaiting the next player Magnus will cancel because they may be cheating. I never thought I’d see the day when the World Champion was such a cry-baby. Dizziness due to success.

https://twitter.com/ben_finegold/sta...C--f6H39krAAAA