ClimateGate - A Question for Ed Seedhouse and Paul Beckwith

[Gary Ruben]

Re: ClimateGate

On the Gore thing, my memory is also a little vague. I believe the Supreme Court did rule, that ballots from certain Florida counties couldn't be counted because of the "hanging chad" issue, and then Gore dropped any chance to appeal that decision, awarding the election to Bush. I wonder if Gore has second thoughts on that? To think that some very major, major directions were so influenced by a tiny piece of cardboard called a "chad"!!!!

I think some investors saw the downturn coming and might have warned about it, but the public at large didn't foresee it at all. I doubt anybody foresaw a GM bankruptcy, but that is part of my point. By shutting their wallets en masse in reaction to the financial meltdown, the public forced the government to do something about GM, and allowing it to liquidate (i.e. shut everything down) was not even a consideration. Wouldn't have mattered if it was a McCain administration or even (shudder) a Palin one. Rescue GM, rescue the banks, would still have been the result.

The public didn't know they would cause this, and might even have been horrified if they had known. But the genie is now out of the bottle, if the public only realizes the power they hold. If they want the "new" GM gone, just continue to not purchase their products. The speed with which this can happen is amazing. If the public is so mad at banks for how they've prospered from Obama's bailouts while main street suffers, then act en masse and bring the banks down! I read last week that a prominent California economics professor is encouraging underwater homeowners around the U.S. to walk away from their homes. Renting is much cheaper than owning now, let the banks take the hit. His rationale is that people must act in their own self-interest, and continuing to make payments on underwater mortgages is not in their own self-interest.

Both you and Ed recall a supreme court decision so it must have gone to that. I take it you're talking the highest appeal court in the U.S. In any case, Bush was probably a better president that Gore would have been.

Did you read my "depression" thread? I saw the downturn coming and I'm not even a professional. I called the bottom on the Dow within a few hundred points. I called the top and low on oil. I missed the low on the Canadian dollar. I haven't decided yet if there will be a second leg down.

Make no mistake about GM. They continue. The only ones who lose are the ones who put money into ownership and lent money to the company. I think the old GM is called Liquidation Motors and the bad parts went into that. Shareholders and those owed money are lining up for crumbs from that while the bankrupcy courts have allowed the good parts to continue to operate. Now they want to do a public offering soon so the public will be holding the shares if the company goes under again. The wild part is they will find buyers at a relatively high price. I bought Ford shares in the midst of all that and did quite well.

You might ask what the difference was between GM and Ford as an investment. The Ford family is still involved in Ford Motors.

Walking away from Mortgages. I wouldn't do it if I could make the payments but I guess lots would. Not all mortgages are equal anyway. Some are, from what I've heard, non recourse. You walk away and there is nothing the lender can do. I think those kind of mortgages might exist in Alberta unless they are Canada Mortgage insured. In Ontario, I think if you walk away from a mortgage they can go after your other assets. In the U.S. it might also depend on the state regarding recourse. Did that economics professor talk about that part?

It seems to me that around 1980 the mortgage holders were buying properties from those who owed the money for $1. in Alberta. It was cheaper than eviction and the "owner" still had a credit rating. Then whoever bought it would sit on the property or rent it out until prices went back up and then sell it. Can you imagine what those houses must be worth in todays market?

Funny how it works. With some people you can do business with them on their word. With others even a signed paper isn't enough.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: do it for the turtles and penguins

A true skeptic must have an open mind and be willing to change it when presented with convincing evidence.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091206/ap_on_re_eu/climate

I guess the fudged figures are An Inconvenient truth.

Do you think our Prime Minister will do things which will stiffle development in Alberta and/or stiffle industrial production?

[Ed Seedhouse]

Re: do it for the turtles and penguins

I guess the fudged figures are An Inconvenient truth.

Even if they truly were fudged (but there is no actual evidence that they were), they are such a small part of an overwhelming set of data, which continues to come in and continues to point more and more to global warming, that they make no visible difference to the current evidence based conclusion.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: do it for the turtles and penguins

Even if they truly were fudged (but there is no actual evidence that they were), they are such a small part of an overwhelming set of data, which continues to come in and continues to point more and more to global warming, that they make no visible difference to the current evidence based conclusion.

The case for global warming is being made on the basis of a preponderance of evidence. The weight of the evidence of proponents of global warming have to be more convincing than the evidence of the opponents of the theory.

I think the work has to be redone and figures and models audited in view of the fudged figures allegations.

In any case, the problem is mainly the U.S. and they do what they want. Everyone knows that.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/en...il-consumption

[Ed Seedhouse]

Re: do it for the turtles and penguins

The case for global warming is being made on the basis of a preponderance of evidence. The weight of the evidence of proponents of global warming have to be more convincing than the evidence of the opponents of the theory.

But the opponents have yet to provide *any* evidence. All they have done is attack the scientists who provided the actual evidence in the first place.

Already this month there was an attempted break in at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis at the University of Victoria.

There is in fact increasing evidence of a large and coordinated campaign of criminal actions designed to discredit Climate science through violence and intimidation.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: ClimateGate

Did you read my "depression" thread? I saw the downturn coming and I'm not even a professional. I called the bottom on the Dow within a few hundred points. I called the top and low on oil. I missed the low on the Canadian dollar. I haven't decided yet if there will be a second leg down..

I don't remember, did you start that thread before the downturn started? i.e. before the Lehman bankruptcy? I was impressed that you were so close to the actual low on the Dow. Did you do that using some math or just as a hunch? For any second leg down, you need to call it or call against it beforehand to get any credit.

In Ontario, I think if you walk away from a mortgage they can go after your other assets. In the U.S. it might also depend on the state regarding recourse. Did that economics professor talk about that part?

I'm pretty sure in the U.S. people can walk away from their properties and not lose any other assets. I don't think it's a state-by-state thing.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: ClimateGate - A Question for Ed Seedhouse and Paul Beckwith

Rex Murphy's piece is quite reasonable and devastating. I'm surprised that the commissars at the CBC allowed it. I guess that after a while a story just becomes too big, no matter how hard they try to ignore it.

The problem is that with the data destroyed all those fancy graphs and graphics become quite suspect. We do need to hit the reset button and insist that any study where the original data is not made available for examination and independent verification be ignored and certainly not be allowed taxpayer funding.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: do it for the turtles and penguins

The only violence and intimidation is by the environmental crazies. HTH.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: do it for the turtles and penguins

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091206/ap_on_re_eu/climate

I guess the fudged figures are An Inconvenient truth.

Do you think our Prime Minister will do things which will stiffle development in Alberta and/or stiffle industrial production?

Can he afford to drain the lifeblood of the only "have" province left? Where will the transfer payments come from then?

"I think a lot of people are skeptical about this issue in any case," de Boer told The Associated Press earlier Sunday. "And then when they have the feeling ... that scientists are manipulating information in a certain direction then of course it causes concern in a number of people to say 'you see I told you so, this is not a real issue.'"

If a lot of people are skeptical about this issue then it is apparent that there is not a consensus and the science is not settled.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Clean Skies website

Climate changes all the time. How could I disprove that?

Pretty much all the fancy graphs posted here can be discarded as a result of the information revealed in the emails. It isn't just a few bad apples. These are the guys that are the stars of the movement.

Time will tell whether Clean Skies is legitimate or not. It looks interesting. Who can be against clean skies?

I wish the Ontario Environment ministry were more concerned with the environment and didn't inform local polluters when they were monitoring (which is apparently twice a week at very specific times). Surprisingly polluters manage to schedule discharges when the monitoring is not taking place. Why can't they automate the process and test 24/7?

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Spin!

Vlad, what poll are you referring to? I am getting more and more convinced that you work in PR for the oil companies and worked on tobacco campaigns in the past...

Have a look at another view on the emails...
http://www.greenparty.ca/blogs/7/200...-hacked-emails

I am referring to the Rasmussen poll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...global_warming

This business about accusing critics of working for oil companies is typical of the level of debate that I would expect from someone with the intellectual capacity of Ed Seedhouse. I expect better from you. As Leonard Cohen would say, "Do not stoop to strategies like this."

Elizabeth May has no credibility with me. Certainly not when she is trying to fob off scientific fraud as nothing serious.

These emails have swung the momentum away from any meaningful agreement at Copenhagen and will probably mean that no significant treaty will make it past U.S. legislative bodies concerned with their own re-election prospects.

"As we all know, this isn’t about truth at all, its about plausibly deniable accusations." - Michael Mann

[Gary Ruben]

Re: ClimateGate

I don't remember, did you start that thread before the downturn started? i.e. before the Lehman bankruptcy? I was impressed that you were so close to the actual low on the Dow. Did you do that using some math or just as a hunch? For any second leg down, you need to call it or call against it beforehand to get any credit.

If you look back at the thread you'll see it was started Sept 15, 2008. I think that might be the day Lehman filed for bankruptcy. At the time the Dow was over 11,000 and there was lots of time to get out. I predicted it with the same computer people accuse me of using to win my correspondence games. You have no idea how good it feels to work in "correspondence". :) I'd been writing about the ABCP on a correspondence message board for months before that and when the site was sold stopped writing the ramblings.

Regarding a second leg down, it would be easy to take a 50 - 50 guess. In reality, I don't have any strong feelings at this time and it depends on what happens in the next few months. Retail, oil and gas, autos, commodity consumption, consumer confidence and a few other indicators. I don't like what happened with Dubai but don't know what the U.S. exposure. I still have many of the stocks I bought around the March lows.

I'm pretty sure in the U.S. people can walk away from their properties and not lose any other assets. I don't think it's a state-by-state thing.

Those would be non-recourse mortgages, I would guess. How easy a time would they have getting another mortgate in the next 10 years?

[Gary Ruben]

Re: do it for the turtles and penguins

Can he afford to drain the lifeblood of the only "have" province left? Where will the transfer payments come from then?

"I think a lot of people are skeptical about this issue in any case," de Boer told The Associated Press earlier Sunday. "And then when they have the feeling ... that scientists are manipulating information in a certain direction then of course it causes concern in a number of people to say 'you see I told you so, this is not a real issue.'"

If a lot of people are skeptical about this issue then it is apparent that there is not a consensus and the science is not settled.

I thought Alberta was going back into deficit. Drill utilization in Western Canada is low. Maybe 20 to 25 percent. Alberta and B.C. are giving incentives to try to get oil and gas companies to explore and develop fields.

Considering the production curve of a gas well over 2 or 4 years, to keep up the production more have to be drilled.

As an example, taking the smallest gas meter I used to service, one well from a company I have will serve that meter, at the meters capacity, when it first goes into production. By the time you get to the 3nd year of production from the well, the flow rate will be at the point where it would take 7 such wells to serve the meter at capacity. Not all wells have the same rates of dropoff. I didn't service house meters.

To keep up the reserves they need to keep drilling.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: ClimateGate - A Question for Ed Seedhouse and Paul Beckwith

LOL...:) Vlad is quite the likeable fellow.
I tried educating him over a beer in Kitchener recently, but he is stubborn.

I see the Copenhagen conference is starting on the 7th (monday). We'll see what happens (if anything).

I'm still voting Green.

If Paul wants to finance my retirement on a small Pacific island with internet access lets not discourage him. I would only be in danger if he were right about rising sea levels.

The Greens need a new leader.

As I recall it was over two beers... ;)

[Ed Seedhouse]

Re: ClimateGate - A Question for Ed Seedhouse and Paul Beckwith

The problem is that with the data destroyed all those fancy graphs and graphics become quite suspect.

Of course, the original data hasn't been destroyed at all, that's just another denialist lie.