2010 Predictions

[Kevin Pacey]

My 2010 predictions (as I've posted on the stagnant OCC message board):

Posted on January 1, 2010 at 03:21:18 PM by Kevin Pacey

I'm a day late, but here are my predictions for 2010:

Chess Predictions:

1) NJF [semi-retired Ottawa Organizer Neil James Frarey] may be down, but he is not out. Expect him to sort things thru and launch a revamped OCC message board by the end of the year.

2) Alas, NJF will decide not to run for CFC President this year;

3) Eric Van Dusen will be comfortably re-elected as CFC President;

4) The CFC will not get a new website;

5) The CFC will not lose buckets of money, but nor will it gain much;

6) The EOCA will remain affiliated with the useless Ontario Chess Association;

7) Kevin Spraggett's FIDE rating will be less at the end of 2010 than at the start;

Non-Chess Predictions:

8) Neither the US nor Isreal will premptively strike Iran;

9) The current US President will regain most of his lost popularity, as measured by the polls, by the end of 2010;

10) Because a Health Care bill will pass, the US Congress will remain in Democrat hands in the 2010 Congressional elections, but they will no longer have a filibuster-proof Senate (i.e. 60+ votes);

11) There will be a Federal election in Canada. The Cons will have a strengthened minority as a result, and Iggy will not remain leader of the Grits for long at all afterwards. Jack Layton will continue as NDP leader;

12) The average global temperature will not rise in 2010. Ocean acidification is the next big scare on the horizon.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: 2010 Predictions

I'm a day late.....

and a dollar short? :)

FWIW, here are my 2010 predictions:

Chess:

(1) A theoretical novelty will be discovered in the French Winawer that will lead to more draws.

(2) Kevin Spraggett will finally, in January, post his long-awaited expose on chess in Canada. By strange coincidence, Google will at that very moment declare his site infested with trojan worms and strange Portuguese bat viruses and no one will be able to bring it up for the rest of the year.

(3) In the brief milliseconds of time between Spraggett posting his expose and Google shutting it down, Carl Bilodeau will see the first few pics of scantily clad women. Nine months later his wife will give birth to octuplets.

(4) A huge sponsorship and TV broadcast deal between PokerStars, the CFC, the FQE, and the CMA will be scuttled when Jean Hebert refuses to accept terms that would potentially have him debate a 5th grader.

Non-Chess:

(1) An emergency climate warming conference will take place in July when all the ice melts unexpectedly at the island training site of the Jamaican Olympic bobsled team.

(2) Barack Obama loses even more popularity when he speaks at the American Dyslexic Association and begins his speech with the statement: "Me be let clear perfectly...".

(3) Tiger Woods makes up for lost endorsements with the launch of his mens' fragrance, "Hole In One".

(4) YouTube, Twitter, and FaceBook will merge to form one mega-timewaster: YouTwitFace

[Terry Chaisson]

Re: 2010 Predictions

Loved that last one. YouTwitFace. I'll have to remember that one.
For what it's worth, my chess predictions are at http://terry-chaisson.blogspot.com/
I picked April 1st as the date the Spraggett expose would appear.

[Christopher Mallon]

Re: 2010 Predictions

11) There will be a Federal election in Canada. The Cons will have a strengthened minority as a result, and Iggy will not remain leader of the Grits for long at all afterwards. Jack Layton will continue as NDP leader;

Well there isn't a whole lot of room for growth without actually becoming a majority.

[Federico Austria]

Re: 2010 Predictions

you forgot about me...i will be a Grand Master this year!!!hahahahaha just joke.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2010 Predictions

Well there isn't a whole lot of room for growth without actually becoming a majority.

Well there isn't a whole lot of room for growth, period. But the Grits will manage to lose a few seats.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2010 Predictions

6) The EOCA will remain affiliated with the useless Ontario Chess Association;

The EOCA was considering this last year, but I'm predicting inertia will keep the EOCA from acting.

A problem with the OCA (aside from being way late paying a league like the EOCA it's share of OCA CFC membership due revenue on more than one occasion in past years, and then paying the EOCA only after being pressed) is that the only way to really justify it's existence is for it to aquire revenue in a way that Ontario leagues could not do on their own, as Duncan Smith alluded to in another thread. Otherwise the leagues would be perfectly capable of co-ordinating provincial championships etc. amongst themselves, without the services of a middle organization like the OCA, which siphons off potential income from the leagues.

As an organization that is provincial rather than regional or local, the OCA might in theory stand a better chance of being funded by the provincial government than a league, but even this may have been blown for the forseeable future.

As Duncan has also alluded to, the OCA has hardly developed chess in Ontario, as is outlined in its otherwise wonderful constitution (if it would be followed, what need for ideas...?). The OCA manages to fund only a skeleton of championship events each year. There are no benefits provided for the average OCA member, unless he develops into a strong player. Not even an OCA newsletter. The leagues could easily achieve this result without much re-organization or amending of their own constitutions.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: 2010 Predictions

The OCA manages to fund only a skeleton of championship events each year. There are no benefits provided for the average OCA member, unless he develops into a strong player. Not even an OCA newsletter. The leagues could easily achieve this result without much re-organization or amending of their own constitutions.

If you want more money to fund more events go out and sell more memberships. Alternately, leave. The last I heard Northern Ontario did that. Fragment Ontario chess more. I'm sure nobody cares.

Your term "strong player" is misleading, unless you're referring to players who learned in other nations. A strong player in Canada isn't necessarily the same as a stong player in other nations. For one thing, I've noticed many players don't know Dick about opening theory.

In the last decade, how many Canada class players has the Eastern Ontario League developed? Players who have a decent chance of winning an Ontario Open and putting in a high finish in the Canadian Closed.

I've been told the CFC has a nice magazine. Has anyone considered writing a EOCL article with a recent annotated game by one of your top players? If the EOCL wants to go it alone and provinde the newsletter you suggest, it should not be any problem to find someone to write a coherent article and annotate a game.

Have a nice New Year, Kevin.

[Egidijus Zeromskis]

Re: 2010 Predictions

In the last decade, how many Canada class players has the Eastern Ontario League developed? Players who have a decent chance of winning an Ontario Open and putting in a high finish in the Canadian Closed

You should follow Karoly Szalay (http://chess.ca/memberinfo.asp?CFCN=134902 ), Jerry Xiong (http://chess.ca/memberinfo.asp?CFCN=133928) , Sebastian Predescu if he will play further ( http://chess.ca/memberinfo.asp?CFCN=102775 ) and others :)

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2010 Predictions

Hi Gary

Happy New Year to you, and everyone else too.

I'll answer your points as best I can.

If you want more money to fund more events go out and sell more memberships. Alternately, leave. The last I heard Northern Ontario did that. Fragment Ontario chess more. I'm sure nobody cares.

The EOCA can sell more memberships, as they continue to do. However the OCA takes a cut of that. Furthermore any mistakes by the OCA means less revenue for the leagues as well, as membership may drop in all leagues.

I would like to give the OCA more time to get it's act together, and justify its existence, but I wouldn't blame the leagues if they disaffiliated one by one. The OCA hasn't had its act together for many years.

Ontario chess is fragmented by region already, whether we like it or not. The question is, would it be more efficiently governed without the OCA, with the leagues meeting or conferencing rather than the OCA. Is there really a need for another level of organized chess governance in Ontario than a less formal body of leagues?

Your term "strong player" is misleading, unless you're referring to players who learned in other nations. A strong player in Canada isn't necessarily the same as a stong player in other nations. For one thing, I've noticed many players don't know Dick about opening theory.

In the last decade, how many Canada class players has the Eastern Ontario League developed? Players who have a decent chance of winning an Ontario Open and putting in a high finish in the Canadian Closed.

By strong player I'm referring to any adult who is eligible to play in an Ontario championship that is not open. In the context of my original post I was thinking of adult class players, as they are average players. In the last decade there was at least one Ontario Closed held in Ottawa and there were at least three players from Ottawa playing that I can remember (myself, Djerkovic, and Saleh, all 2300+ at the time).

One year I won the Ontario Open when it was held in Ottawa, though I didn't play in the Canadian Closed, if I recall. However, we are refering to Ontario ;). How many strong players have most leagues in the province 'developed' (ignoring that the players do that largely themselves), outside of the Toronto area, which depended on OCA efforts that couldn't have been easily duplicated by an informal alliance of leagues (i.e. to organize provincial championships)?

I've been told the CFC has a nice magazine. Has anyone considered writing a EOCL article with a recent annotated game by one of your top players? If the EOCL wants to go it alone and provinde the newsletter you suggest, it should not be any problem to find someone to write a coherent article and annotate a game.

The OCA at one point in the 1970's or 1980s did produce a few issues of a newsletter, which soon ceased. A newsletter by the OCA would provide a service to average OCA members. By contrast I see no pressing need for the EOCA, or other Ontario leagues, to provide more services, or justify their existence. The EOCA has its own organizers for local tournaments, and runs a Grand Prix (the format copied by England some years ago for their stronger events), whereas the OCA appears nothing more than a shell for providing provincial chess beaucracy, until such time as OCA services are improved and OCA revenue independent of CFC memberships are secured. Fine, we can wait for that, but I say again, I wouldn't blame any number of leagues for going it alone after years without anything really positive from the OCA.

[Christopher Mallon]

Re: 2010 Predictions

I'd be all for an OCA Newsletter. The question is: is there someone willing to do one for next to nothing? Or are the leagues willing to reduce their "cut" in order to fund a newsletter?

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2010 Predictions

I'd be all for an OCA Newsletter. The question is: is there someone willing to do one for next to nothing? Or are the leagues willing to reduce their "cut" in order to fund a newsletter?

These are questions that I would think that the OCA Executive ought to be asking themselves and/or the leagues, and none too soon.

Since the OCA sets the fee for the OCA portion of Ontario CFC membership fees, an alternative to reducing the league portions (or 'cut') is to raise the fee for the OCA portion of Ontario CFC members, in the interest of providing an OCA newsletter with a fairly modestly paid editor, or whatever new service(s) the OCA would then be capable of. However you may want to put out feelers for how Ontario CFC members would react, depending on what services(s) you promised. A poll about that on chesstalk for Ontario members only might be in order.

The real, immediate issue for the EOCA, in the musings of at least one EOCA exec last year, was that if in 2010 the OCA didn't pay the EOCA its 'cut' in reasonable time once again, that might make disaffiliation a no-brainer.

[Egidijus Zeromskis]

Re: 2010 Predictions

I'd be all for an OCA Newsletter. The question is: is there someone willing to do one for next to nothing?

Now, here I should bash Chris, why he is not perfect :D Anyway, Chris, what is a status of the website? Do we go further?

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: 2010 Predictions

I'd be all for an OCA Newsletter. The question is: is there someone willing to do one for next to nothing?

A possibility I forgot to mention is to put out very few OCA newsletters each year, at least in the beginning. That would reduce what the OCA might pay an editor, and give more time to collect contributions from readers/columnists.

[David McTavish]

Re: 2010 Predictions

A possibility I forgot to mention is to put out very few OCA newsletters each year, at least in the beginning. That would reduce what the OCA might pay an editor, and give more time to collect contributions from readers/columnists.

Another possibility would be to strew this site with poor English and family pictures; the n call it fine 'art'. Then take over the OCA with a rogue website, and claim it as one's own...OCA website http://www.kris-egis.com/oca/2010/01...e-holiday-open

This is Canada.