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Re: Rating Changes between 2006-2010 for BC vs Ottawa
Roger: It occured to me that while I was studying post-boon ratings, if you've gone back to 2006, I think you are including the boon as part of your study...
Roger: It occured to me that while I was studying post-boon ratings, if you've gone back to 2006, I think you are including the boon as part of your study...
...which is one reason I think there might be deflation in B.C.; plus the boon was imperfect, probably, since only people who were very active during 2004-2006 gained lots of points from the boon. On top of that, the bonus points scheme (and the subsequent addition of participation points by an independent Governors motion) were designed to have an effect that depended on players being reasonably active since 2006.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Re: Rating Changes between 2006-2010 for BC vs Ottawa
I am going back to the start of 2006. It would be incorrect to start after the boon as the effect of the boon was to give an upward spike to a subset of active individuals which needs to be dissipated into the system. (presumably, 3 years of activity has done so). And, alledgedly, the boon was to counteract some deflation - so I wanted to see the total change.
It does not affect the arguement that there is some regional discrepancy in the rating system. Including 2006 just means some period of alledged deflation (nationwide) is included and would just be a constant over all ratings.
...which is one reason I think there might be deflation in B.C.; plus the boon was imperfect, probably, since only people who were very active during 2004-2006 gained lots of points from the boon. On top of that, the bonus points scheme (and the subsequent addition of participation points by an independent Governors motion) were designed to have an effect that depended on players being reasonably active since 2006.
well, I suppose that the hypothesis that Ottawa has become inflated is unthinkable. It doesn't matter wether you argue that BC has become deflated or that Ontario has become inflated, or both - it comes to the same thing - a ratings differential that is probably increasing with time. Either scenario is a problem.
Re: Rating Changes between 2006-2010 for BC vs Ottawa
I've brought this thread to the rating auditor's attention, and for what it's worth, his initial reaction was to suspect that B.C. juniors were taking points away from more established players there.
Here in Ottawa it seems that most of our juniors are no longer underrated.
I'm the type of player who usually does better the more often I play someone (so long as they are not a GM, perhaps) - I've never lost the matches I've played in my career (rated or not). Very few players who are my peers (or worse) have a large plus score against me. My reaching 2400 may be an exceptional case, if Ottawa is inflated or not.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Re: Rating Changes between 2006-2010 for BC vs Ottawa
It was suggested to me that I look at CFC ratings compared to FIDE by region to look for evidence of regional differences. I did so, and the results are at http://www.victoriachess.com/misc/cfctofide.htm. I looked at those people who were active in the last year, and over 2200 cfc in their province.
Basically, the mean difference of CFC and FIDE ratings does vary by region in a statistically significant manner for this sample set. The results are:
BC +59
Ont +119
AB +98
QC +61
This is not per se evidence of regional inflation (could be other factors including variability in FIDE ratings and how often people get FIDE rated games) but it is consistent with that hypothesis.
There was a nice plot posted a little while ago showing rating difference for the top 200 players or so. It showed a lot of variation with a lot of negative numbers (i.e. FIDE >CFC). If that plot was redone to eliminate inactive (or not recently active) players, that would no longer be true. In the sample set I used, only 4 out of 104 people had FIDE ratings higher than CFC.
Last edited by Roger Patterson; Saturday, 3rd July, 2010, 11:30 PM.
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