Welcome To The Depression...

[Peter McKillop]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

What if it's worse than a cessation?

I submit: "LA SENZA" (not to be confused).

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Hi Gary:

I heard an economist the other day say it will be worse than a recession, but not a depression. He said we need a new word for it. I submit :

" REDESSION "

Bob

Hi Bob,

A lot of economists change their minds and re-evaluate as time goes along. I guess they have their set of criteria and call what they see.

What I saw when I looked at the situation a month ago and started this thread was closest to a depression. If you look at the date of the first post in this thread and compare it to a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, you'll probably see why I didn't think it would hold. Bank bailouts and failures, the world tied into debt which is not tied to anything like a gold standard, and you have sets of numbers which exist only on computers. Numbers the size of which boggle the imagination. You have analysts talking about the value of the stock of a company which in reality it is only worth what someone is willing to pay.

Probably the governments will throw enough money at the problem that it will go away and the system will resume like before. Since my depression portfolio really exists, and isn't a figment of my imagination, I have a real interest in seeing the governments solve the problem.

I couldn't see my way clear to cast a ballot in the election. The leaders looked to me more like part of the problem than part of the solution.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

If dion wasn't enough of a boat anchor, imagine how low in the polls the Liberals would sink if they pick Bob Rae as their leader..

Let's remember that Bob Rae moved the motion in parliament which brought down the Joe Clark Conservative government. Bob Rae made the deal with David Peterson which ended decades of Conservative rule in Ontario. The Conservative run had gone from 1943 through to 1985 when Rae signed an accord to support the Liberals who had won less seats than the Conservatives, ending the Conservative dynasty.

I wouldn't underestimate someone like that.

Possibly for a new Liberal leader you would have to consider Dalton McGuinty and Justin Trudeau as possible candidates. Although I never voted for Pierre Trudeau, I have to admit Justin has some appeal and speaks with passion.

[Jason Lohner]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Let's remember that Bob Rae moved the motion in parliament which brought down the Joe Clark Conservative government. Bob Rae made the deal with David Peterson which ended decades of Conservative rule in Ontario. The Conservative run had gone from 1943 through to 1985 when Rae signed an accord to support the Liberals who had won less seats than the Conservatives, ending the Conservative dynasty.

I wouldn't underestimate someone like that.

Possibly for a new Liberal leader you would have to consider Dalton McGuinty and Justin Trudeau as possible candidates. Although I never voted for Pierre Trudeau, I have to admit Justin has some appeal and speaks with passion.

I couldn't vote for Dion because of the carbon tax, but hell would freeze before I could vote for anyone who was part of the NDP. Most people associate bob rae with the NDP no matter what political stripe hes trying to wear today.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

What if it's worse than a cessation?

I submit: "LA SENZA" (not to be confused).

I had to look that up, I guess it's a Canadian girls clothing chain, owned by the same company (Limited Brands) that runs Victoria's Secret.

Hmmm, "Limited Brands".... that does sound like something to be associated with a scenario worse than a cessation!

Here's how bad it could get: we're all sitting out on the sidewalks in front of our boarded-up foreclosed properties, playing chess to pass the time because we have no jobs or job prospects and only limited brands of girls clothing to shop for. Actually, we'll probably be playing poker, betting our weather-beaten LazyBoy recliners on top pair, top kicker.

Tom O'Donnell will watch us all through the bulletproof glass of his doublewide that he paid CASH for just before the feds came to try and collect his share of the La Senza bailout. Yeah, the banks all failed, the insurers were the next to go, then the legal firms, and on and on down the line, but La Senza, the feds decided they'd make their stand there, because it was TOO BIG TO FAIL.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

I couldn't vote for Dion because of the carbon tax, but hell would freeze before I could vote for anyone who was part of the NDP. Most people associate bob rae with the NDP no matter what political stripe hes trying to wear today.

You aren't alone feeling that way about a carbon tax. We export hugh volumes of oil and gas, the tar sands (I think they prefer the term oil sands these days), hugh coal exports (I think we might be the biggest exporter of thermal coal) and so forth. Canadians own shares in these companies. It was a hugh blunder to propose a carbon tax and I think Dion is out of touch with not only with ordinary Canadians, but also with Bay St.

Regarding the NDP, I voted for them when I was young and idealistic. When I get old and crotchety, I'll vote Conservative.

[Jason Lohner]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

You aren't alone feeling that way about a carbon tax. We export hugh volumes of oil and gas, the tar sands (I think they prefer the term oil sands these days), hugh coal exports (I think we might be the biggest exporter of thermal coal) and so forth. Canadians own shares in these companies. It was a hugh blunder to propose a carbon tax and I think Dion is out of touch with not only with ordinary Canadians, but also with Bay St.

Regarding the NDP, I voted for them when I was young and idealistic. When I get old and crotchety, I'll vote Conservative.

Yeah I voted NDP when I was 18 and then I grew up :)... I just couldn't hold my nose and vote this election. I couldn't find one party worth voting for...

I couldn't vote for the conservatives because of their idiotic 'copyright' bill C-61. And the fact that my parents lost a good chunk of money on the income trust lie ...

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Yeah I voted NDP when I was 18 and then I grew up :)... I just couldn't hold my nose and vote this election. I couldn't find one party worth voting for...

I couldn't vote for the conservatives because of their idiotic 'copyright' bill C-61. And the fact that my parents lost a good chunk of money on the income trust lie ...

I think the voting age was 21 until around 1975. I wouldn't have voted when I was 18. It's only been the last few years I've come to the conclusion that voting only encourages them. I think the turnout was less than 60 percent this time. Before long it will be below 50 percent. I don't know whose views the political parties represent. They aren't mine.

Some of those income trusts are viable entities in their own right and have converted back to companies. The problem is they took another cut in value when they did it. Some have already been bought up by other companies. I don't think REIT's are taxable but if they do other things, like nursing homes, they are taxable as a business.

Probably those which give good income will be bought by large pension plans and then they will still not be taxable because they will be held within the pension plan. Which brings up the question of if that loophole was intentional or an unintended consequence of an ill thought out policy.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

We've had our first Depression Election. Minority government! The Conservatives went cap in hand to the voters and asked for a mandate. A majority mandate was not in the cards. In spite of the very unpopular platform by the main opponent, a majority government eluded Harper.

In a way, when you consider he starts with all the 28 Alberta ridings, it's kind of a suprise he couldn't pick up enough, but the Conservatives fell short. Now our Prime Minister will have to show he excels at working with others. He got poor marks for this last term and the voters have decided he needs to repeat the effort before either being promoted to the next stage or being replaced entirely by another political party.

You might ask, "What went wrong"? He needed a mere 12 more seats for a majority. Well, there were the 3 "safe" seats in Newfoundland. Our Prime Minister seems to have offended the Conservative Newfoundland Premier and as the result of an ABC campaign that province took away those seats and gave them to others. Had that disagreement been patched up it's reasonable to think he would only have missed by 9 seats. Nine riding which had to switch to Conservative. A small number.

The major problem was Chessplayer Gary and all the other Chessplayer Garys' around the country. The decision to cut culture funding. They didn't understand the importance of culture to Quebecers and many Canadians in other provinces.

Anyone who has been reading this thread from the beginning knows I have been harping on funding for chess parents. Culture folks, and not understanding the importance cost the Conservatives a majority government in my view.

The Liberals seem to me to be totally rejected. The election has ended and I still don't know exactly who they wanted to tax or how much and how it would trickle down to me. Trickle down economics didn't work in the U.S. and Canadians weren't willing to give the Liberals a chance to try it here.

The Bloc ran a decent campaign to target those who vote for them. It seem both them and the Conservatives were trying for the same voters and the Bloc certainly won that decision.

The NDP normally does well when there is a minority and poorly when one party gets a solid majority government. They did well this election.

About the only advice I'd have for the politicians the next time they throw an election is to look after Chessplayer Gary. I get one day of democracy every few years and if you want my vote you have to look after my interests. The bottom line is Chessplayer Gary is the average Joe.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

About the only advice I'd have for the politicians the next time they throw an election is to look after Chessplayer Gary. I get one day of democracy every few years and if you want my vote you have to look after my interests. The bottom line is Chessplayer Gary is the average Joe.

Gary, I enjoy reading your posts and the responses they generate, so keep them coming. But the above only demonstrates that every individual thinks they are the Center of the Universe, and from their point of view and ONLY their point of view, they are correct. But from a more objective viewpoint, one has to ask:

Is the average Joe in Canada retired? Does the average Joe in Canada play only correspondence chess? I doubt that applies to the average chess player in Canada, let alone the average Joe.

But all of this misses the true bottom line, which is that there is no average Joe. In fact, since women outnumber men in both Canada and the U.S., the average Joe should really be the average Jane.

Here in the U.S., McCain tried to protray the average Joe as "Joe the Plumber". The Democrats should have responded with Jesus the Hedgetrimmer. By claiming a plumber making over $250,000 a year (and thus falling into the Obama tax plan's increased taxes category) represents the average American, McCain only shows himself to be the typical elitist fat cat appeaser that his party represents. Obama, if he were truly a killer politician, could have made mincemeat of McCain on this alone. He could have pointed out that no politician can make everyone happy, and that for every Joe the Plumber making over a quarter mil per year, there are thousands of Jesus the Hedgetrimmers who will see tax relief with Obama's plan. To which I imagine McCain would have had the standard conservative retort ready, that most Jesus the Hedgetrimmers are here illegally and should be deported to create jobs for average AMERICAN Joes. Obama would come back with the standard line that the average AMERICAN Joe makes too much and has too many bennies to lower himself to trimming someone's hedges for $6 an hour, and if all the illegal Jesus's are deported, who will trim Joe the Plumber's hedges? At this point, I envision George W. Bush chiming in with "Yeah, we need tuh trim those hedge funds, they're ruinin' our 'conomy.")

Anyway, for every Chessplayer Gary wanting to see increased govt funding for chess parents, there are a thousand Childrearing Gildas wanting just a little govt funding for stay at home moms. Both may be noble goals, with long term benefits to children. But chess funding no more registers on the political issue seismic chart than does Gary's King toppling over on his chessboard make a blip on the Southern Califonia Earthquake Data Center's earth tremor monitoring equipment.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Hi Paul,

"Is the average Joe in Canada retired? Does the average Joe in Canada play only correspondence chess? I doubt that applies to the average chess player in Canada, let alone the average Joe."

Retired people are becoming a larger percentage of the population from what I understand. And they tend to vote. At least some nursing homes have voting stations. I don't know if the average Joe is playing only correspondence chess. While I don't play CFC rated chess, I do play over the board from time to time. I have a few chess sets around and a couple of chess clocks. One digital and a BHB. The pieces move exactly the same in both CC and OTB.

"But all of this misses the true bottom line, which is that there is no average Joe. In fact, since women outnumber men in both Canada and the U.S., the average Joe should really be the average Jane."

How many women do you know who can walk down the street with a bald head and a beer belly and think they look sexy? :)

"Here in the U.S., McCain tried to protray the average Joe as "Joe the Plumber". The Democrats should have responded with Jesus the Hedgetrimmer. By claiming a plumber making over $250,000 a year (and thus falling into the Obama tax plan's increased taxes category) represents the average American, McCain only shows himself to be the typical elitist fat cat appeaser that his party represents. Obama, if he were truly a killer politician, could have made mincemeat of McCain on this alone. He could have pointed out that no politician can make everyone happy, and that for every Joe the Plumber making over a quarter mil per year, there are thousands of Jesus the Hedgetrimmers who will see tax relief with Obama's plan. To which I imagine McCain would have had the standard conservative retort ready, that most Jesus the Hedgetrimmers are here illegally and should be deported to create jobs for average AMERICAN Joes. Obama would come back with the standard line that the average AMERICAN Joe makes too much and has too many bennies to lower himself to trimming someone's hedges for $6 an hour, and if all the illegal Jesus's are deported, who will trim Joe the Plumber's hedges? At this point, I envision George W. Bush chiming in with "Yeah, we need tuh trim those hedge funds, they're ruinin' our 'conomy.")"

Don't forget Joe Six-pack. McCain always seems to come back to his Vietnam war experiences in his campaigning, and it gets a little much. How many Americans can relate to a POW? I'd say they are more interested in issues other than wars. Like the management of the economy and the state of their 401K, their job, paying the mortgage, etc. Like here in Canada I doubt you are getting a plan to clean up the problems. Only a general statement the candidate has a plan.

"Anyway, for every Chessplayer Gary wanting to see increased govt funding for chess parents, there are a thousand Childrearing Gildas wanting just a little govt funding for stay at home moms. Both may be noble goals, with long term benefits to children. But chess funding no more registers on the political issue seismic chart than does Gary's King toppling over on his chessboard make a blip on the Southern Califonia Earthquake Data Center's earth tremor monitoring equipment."

Stay home moms get plenty of funding from what I understand. At least some of them get the child care allowance from what I understand.

Cultural funding, and chess can be considered in that category, is exactly what cost the majority. The PM gave a speech in Saskatchewan (I think it was) where he stated he would cut cultural spending. In Quebec they are very protective of their culture. The Bloc picked up the speech and ran with it. Any chance for a pick up in support the PM needed to form a majority government evaporated. If a majority is the goal, funding culture and tossing in chess lesson deductibility would be a nice start. Excluding chess from the sports funding was a bad move. It's not like allowing the deductibility is a total write-off for the government. If they allow the deduction to the parent they tax the payment from the recipient.

In any case, the number of eligible voters who cast a ballot was less than 60 per cent this time. Lowest ever. I guess I wasn't the only one who couldn't relate to the party platforms.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

It's nice to see all the chess activity these days. Young Canadians playing in Vietnam. What seems like a lot of activity here in Ontario and other places around the country. A World Championship match taking place. After 6 games of the world championship, it looks like Kramnik is toast. The only possible strategy Kramnik can have remaining is to make Anand laugh so hard he'll lose games.

Our election season is over and the leader of the opposition has walked the plank. Now it's back to depression as usual. Another interest rate cut here, another country pumped "liquidity" into their banking system and lots of cynical jokes floating around. Hopefully the governments can stabilize the economy so it can turn around. I can see some improvement. The price of oil is dropping. The Canadian dollar is falling in value against the U.S. dollar which helps our manufacturing sector. We'll have to see how it plays out.

I added to my depression portfolio today. One of my crummy cheapskate bids was hit. Took more than a week.

I'll tell you what's in the depression portfolio. What interests me.
1. Transforce Inc at 5.08. Large trucking company. I like that when I write them and ask questions regarding finances the CFO replies to me. They are sensitive to fuel prices, do quite a bit of business in the U.S. so the falling Canadian dollar is favorable and have an active acquisition policy. The dividend on what I paid is around 8%. The price dropped lower after I bought it but has recovered.
2. Chartwell Seniors Housings Reit. 5.07. Seniors housing, and nursing homes like the name suggests. Also does business in the U.S. so the falling Canadian dollar helps them. They also seem to have a growth strategy. If I ever end up in one of those places I want to be the boss. The distribution on the price I paid is around 13.5%. The price dropped lower after I bought it but has recovered.
3. Domtar Corp. at 2.81 Canadian. Paper. It's office paper and not newsprint as far as I know. No dividend but I consider the price to be a joke. It trades mostly in New York so it's a bit of a currency play as well.

TAKE NOTE THAT I MAKE MY BEST GUESS AND DO MY OWN ANALYSIS.

DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial adviser.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Have any of you been watching the Canadian Dollar since the election 2 weeks ago? It's lost almost 15 cents against the U.S. dollar. That's an awesome loss.

Pretty soon you'll have to pay a Loonie to buy ONE grown in the U.S. peanut.

DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial adviser.

[Ken Craft]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

I'll post to keep this from becoming a monologue.

[Ben Daswani]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

I'll post to keep this from becoming a monologue.

You tricked me into clicking on this thread.