Welcome To The Depression...

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

There is no consensus. HTH.

The IPCC is a political process and not a scientific one.

"Over 700 dissenting scientists (updates previous 650 report) from around the globe challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore.
This new 2009 255-page U.S. Senate Minority Report -- updated from 2007’s groundbreaking report of over 400 scientists who voiced skepticism about the so-called global warming “consensus” -- features the skeptical voices of over 700 prominent international scientists, including many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN IPCC. This updated report includes an additional 300 (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the initial release in December 2007.

The over 700 dissenting scientists are more than 13 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.


The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 and 2009 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN’s and former Vice President Al Gore's claims that the "science is settled" and there is a "consensus." On a range of issues, 2008 and 2009 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears. Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviewed studies predicting a continued lack of warming; a failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick”; inconvenient developments and studies regarding rising CO2; the Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland’s ice; Mount Kilimanjaro; Causes of Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Extinctions; Floods; Droughts; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; Extreme weather deaths; Frogs; lack of atmospheric dust; Malaria; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted."

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.c...TOKEN=81683172

The above study is fascinating reading.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

The American Association for the Advancement of Science disagrees with Vlad.

That's like saying the Chess Federation of Canada disagrees with Vlad. All it takes to be a member is to pay the membership fee. If I were to adopt your dysfunctional communication style I would question your veracity but I fear that you are not dealing from a full deck so I will back slowly away instead.

Obviously there has been a great deal of science published which contradicts the American Association for the Advancement of Science position. Just click on all the links in that pdf I posted from the US Senate.

One useful thing from this exercise is that I was able to take a fresh look at the available evidence. Many of the arguments of the man-made global warning advocates have been refuted or shown to be out and out fabrications since the last time I got into this debate.

We will know in a few years who is right.

Until then we can look at one of the past doom and gloomers predictions from members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich

Paul Ralph Ehrlich (born 29 May 1932 ) is an American entomologist specializing in Lepidoptera (butterflies). He became a household name[1][2] after publication of his 1968 book The Population Bomb, in which he predicted that "In the 1970s and 1980s . . . hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now." [3][4]

Ehrlich is Bing Professor of Population Studies in the department of Biological Sciences at Stanford University[5].

Career

Ehrlich currently is the president of the Center for Conservation Biology at Stanford University. He is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Philosophical Society.

Ehrlich's research group at Stanford currently works extensively on the study of natural populations of checkerspot butterflies (Euphydryas). Along with Dr. Gretchen Daily, he has conducted work in "countryside biogeography", or the study of making human-disturbed areas hospitable to biodiversity. Ehrlich continues to conduct policy research on population and resource issues, focusing especially on endangered species, cultural evolution, environmental ethics, and the preservation of genetic resources.

Population growth predictions

Ehrlich wrote an article that appeared in New Scientist in December 1967. In that article, Ehrlich predicted that the world would experience famines sometime between 1970 and 1985 due to population growth outstripping resources. Ehrlich wrote that "the battle to feed all of humanity is over ... In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now." Ehrlich also stated, "India couldn't possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980," and "I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks that India will be self-sufficient in food by 1971." These specific predictions did not actually come to pass, and his later book The Population Explosion is much more cautious in its predictions.

The article led to the publication of The Population Bomb in 1968, advocating stringent population control policies.[7] His central argument on population is as follows:

"A cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people. Treating only the symptoms of cancer may make the victim more comfortable at first, but eventually he dies - often horribly. A similar fate awaits a world with a population explosion if only the symptoms are treated. We must shift our efforts from treatment of the symptoms to the cutting out of the cancer. The operation will demand many apparent brutal and heartless decisions. The pain may be intense. But the disease is so far advanced that only with radical surgery does the patient have a chance to survive."[8]

In his concluding chapter, Ehrlich offered a partial solution to the "population problem":

"(We need) compulsory birth regulation... (through) the addition of temporary sterilants to water supplies or staple food. Doses of the antidote would be carefully rationed by the government to produce the desired family size".[9]

Ehrlich's views came to be accepted by many population control advocates in the United States and Europe in the 1960s and 1970s.[10] Since Ehrlich invoked the imagery of the "population bomb" overpopulation has been blamed for a variety of issues, including, increasing poverty, high unemployment rates, environmental degradation, famine and genocide.[11]

Ehrlich reviewed the predictions in his book The Population Bomb in a 2004 interview and the subsequent criticism that followed due to the specificity of the dates in his predictions.[12] He stated that some of his predictions did not occur, but noted that it was still “horrific” that 600 million people were very hungry and billions under-nourished or malnourished. He stated that his predictions about disease and climate change were correct.[12]

[Paul Bonham]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 and 2009 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN’s and former Vice President Al Gore's claims that the "science is settled" and there is a "consensus." On a range of issues, 2008 and 2009 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears. Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviewed studies predicting a continued lack of warming; a failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick”; inconvenient developments and studies regarding rising CO2; the Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland’s ice; Mount Kilimanjaro; Causes of Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Extinctions; Floods; Droughts; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; Extreme weather deaths; Frogs; lack of atmospheric dust; Malaria; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted."

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.c...TOKEN=81683172

The above study is fascinating reading.

Well, so is this:

http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pb...EWS01/90817014

and this:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...yndication=rss


For those too lazy to follow the links, both June and then July ocean temps around the world set new records, for data going back to 1880. It's an El Nino year, it appears, and it appears subsequent waves of El Nino years break records set in the previous El Nino years. Most telling of all is this piece of data: "this June marked the 33rd consecutive June with a temperature above the 20th-century average, which may provide an indication of global warming."

I'm not going to say that this proves or disproves global warming, I'm only disputing claims Vlad seems to be pointing to that temperatures aren't rising. There's more than just air temps to consider. If ocean temps keep rising, the melting of the ice caps will accelerate, and the danger is that it becomes a feedback loop that can't be reversed.

Whatever will happen will happen. I'm not foolish enough to think that the Chinese are going to stop their breakneck industrial development just to save the planet. Their only concern is for themselves and for today.

My main point in this dispute is that both the "left" and the "right" appear to be using global warming as a means to their own political ends. We are truly incapable of saving ourselves if something as dire as global warming is coming down the pike. We are too damn busy making political hay of it, as with most other serious issues of our time.

If any of you believe global warming and it's consequences are possible within your lifetime, research what those consequences are predicted to be and plan your future accordingly.

If you don't believe it, well, just continue to live for today and if you're lucky no consequences will happen in your lifetime.

As for the children of today, and whether or not humanity can survive, que sera sera.

I just seem to remember somewhere, perhaps in the Bible or maybe somewhere else, I read a prediction that in the last days of mankind, the young doomed generation will conduct kangaroo courts and sentence their own parents to death for crimes against humanity. Very possible! Maybe even in China!

[Bob Armstrong]

New Thread Needed

Hi Gary:

A convenience thing - I get tired scrolling down through all those old posts.

So the next time you are compelled to grace us with another " snapshot of life according to Ruben ", would you start a new thread called " Welcome to the Depression II "?

Thanks. Entertaining catch all thread.

Bob

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Well, so is this:

http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pb...EWS01/90817014

and this:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...yndication=rss


For those too lazy to follow the links, both June and then July ocean temps around the world set new records,

To be precise, the report was on ocean surface temperatures for June and July. It is unclear what was being measured and where. The same agency reported that U.S. temperatures were down for July.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/1...e-for-the-u-s/

for data going back to 1880. It's an El Nino year, it appears, and it appears subsequent waves of El Nino years break records set in the previous El Nino years. Most telling of all is this piece of data: "this June marked the 33rd consecutive June with a temperature above the 20th-century average, which may provide an indication of global warming."

And yet there is another story in today's newspaper that the polar bears are enjoying some extra seal hunting because of the thickness of the ice on Hudson's Bay.

Winnipeg Free Press - Fluke cold summer helps polar bears
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/loc...-53673907.html

I'm not going to say that this proves or disproves global warming, I'm only disputing claims Vlad seems to be pointing to that temperatures aren't rising. There's more than just air temps to consider. If ocean temps keep rising, the melting of the ice caps will accelerate, and the danger is that it becomes a feedback loop that can't be reversed.

Actually its not that simple. Moderate increases in temperature would lead to more evaporation and hence more precipitation which might increase the size of the ice caps or at least reduce the effect of the melting.

Whatever will happen will happen. I'm not foolish enough to think that the Chinese are going to stop their breakneck industrial development just to save the planet. Their only concern is for themselves and for today.

My main point in this dispute is that both the "left" and the "right" appear to be using global warming as a means to their own political ends. We are truly incapable of saving ourselves if something as dire as global warming is coming down the pike. We are too damn busy making political hay of it, as with most other serious issues of our time.

Man has survived and thrived in environments which were much warmer than those of today.

If any of you believe global warming and it's consequences are possible within your lifetime, research what those consequences are predicted to be and plan your future accordingly.

If you don't believe it, well, just continue to live for today and if you're lucky no consequences will happen in your lifetime.

As for the children of today, and whether or not humanity can survive, que sera sera.

I just seem to remember somewhere, perhaps in the Bible or maybe somewhere else, I read a prediction that in the last days of mankind, the young doomed generation will conduct kangaroo courts and sentence their own parents to death for crimes against humanity. Very possible! Maybe even in China!

Actually the crimes mentioned in the Bible are those of being a Christian. One example:

Matthew 10
10:21 And the brother shall deliver up the brother to death, and the father the child: and the children shall rise up against their parents, and cause them to be put to death.
10:22 And ye shall be hated of all men for my name's sake: but he that endureth to the end shall be saved.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: New Thread Needed

Hi Gary:

A convenience thing - I get tired scrolling down through all those old posts.

So the next time you are compelled to grace us with another " snapshot of life according to Ruben ", would you start a new thread called " Welcome to the Depression II "?

Thanks. Entertaining catch all thread.

Bob

Hi Bob,
Yes. I guess it is getting lengthy. Next month will be the start of the 2nd year. Maybe something along the line of "The Depression Year II" would be an idea. Even Readers Digest has been reported to have gone Chaper 11 the other day.

This isn't really a message board for this kind of thread and I don't want to try the mderators patience with another long thread

I notice things have been getting a bit testy in one of the sections. When I moderated a politics Fidonet forum, whenever that happened it didn't cool down until after Roe vs Wade was debated and everyone was upset with everyone else.

I sold the oil refinery shares. Heard that Hurricane could head to the East Coast of Canada this weekend.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: New Thread Needed

Hi Bob,
Yes. I guess it is getting lengthy. Next month will be the start of the 2nd year. Maybe something along the line of "The Depression Year II" would be an idea. Even Readers Digest has been reported to have gone Chaper 11 the other day.

This isn't really a message board for this kind of thread and I don't want to try the mderators patience with another long thread

.

Hi Gary:

Regardless of whether the thread is a chess one, it has shown remarkable staying power ! You are not the only one posting. So I guess there is some support for this " This is what Canadian life is all about " thread.

Also, whether this thread continues on to infinity, or a " Year II " thread starts anew, should not get the board moderators in too much of a knot. And if they complain about a new one......just blame the idea on me !!

Bob

[Paul Bonham]

Re: New Thread Needed

Hi Gary:

Regardless of whether the thread is a chess one, it has shown remarkable staying power ! You are not the only one posting. So I guess there is some support for this " This is what Canadian life is all about " thread.

It's not a "This is what Canadian life is all about" thread. It's a "This is what Gary Ruben's life is all about" thread.

Gary Ruben made the original post. To that original post there have been 40 top-level "replies"; 38 of them (95%) made by Gary Ruben. Basically he just keeps updating us as to what he's investing in or what he thinks about current events. And he liberally (political pun intended) sprinkles his posts with things he has done in the past, especially if they were done in other countries, so that we are all made aware of Gary Ruben and how rich his life has been (by his own accounts, likely inflated). This thread is nothing more than Gary Ruben's blog, which he gets to do right here for free with no work on his part. Who cares if it's a chess forum? Certainly not a parasite like Gary Ruben.

In another thread he seems to think I was seeking his help to gain "international exposure" for a chess variant idea of mine. Not true at all, but typical of his self-aggrandising: that I would even THINK of him as being a gateway to "international exposure". He said I should "do my own work": notwithstanding that I wasn't suggesting anything for my benefit, this comes from the hypocrite who hijacks Chesstalk rather than set up his own blog site.

Someone on this board should do a poll as to what we all do think of Gary Ruben, but on the other hand, no, because if honesty prevailed, the poor sod might go into a stupor and overdose on his Colon Blow cereal.

I used to think this thread shouldn't die. But that was before I became aware of just what Gary Ruben is all about (Gary Ruben). I also used to think Ben Daswani's obvious detest for Gary was overdone, but no more. Indeed, Gary is a yet another prime example of how too much chess can bring the worst out in people.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: New Thread Needed

Hi Gary:

Also, whether this thread continues on to infinity, or a " Year II " thread starts anew, should not get the board moderators in too much of a knot. And if they complain about a new one......just blame the idea on me !!

Bob

Hi Bob,

I'm glad you enjoy it.

There is an interesting case winding its way through the B.C. Supreme Court. A company, in which I hold shares, is disputing thier property taxes in 4 jurisdicitons in which they operate. They paid only what they think is fair. Other companies seem to have joined in also refusing to pay their full taxes, or possibly none at all.

The argument seems to be the taxes are unreasonable in relation to those of other categories of taxpayers and to the services the company consumes.

The stakes appear to me to be large. On the one hand, if the court upholds the taxation, those taxes and the wage rates in B.C. might well make the operation in Canada uneconomical. The shares trade for around 20 cents and I got if for less. It's pulp and paper which is not doing very well these days.

On the other hand, if the taxation is ruled to be unreasonable, I'd suspect the number of major industrial firms going to the courts would increase.

I would assume the court will not concern itself with how the jurisdictions will rearrange the allocation of taxation, if they rule the current method unfair.

The cases are moving slowly with delays, as these things often do. Possibly the hope is the partys come to some agreement amongst themselves on what is fair as the decision could be one which will pinch both sides.

My understanding is the court can only rule on the fairness (and in effect legality) of the tax rate. It won't take away the rights of the companies to operate for the next few years without paying property taxes, with the jurisdictions adding on penalties. The same as any other taxpayer.

Demand for papers is way down. Newsprint and directory paper, and so forth.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: New Thread Needed

Hi Gary:

Just wish you'd started a new thread with this new " World According to Ruben ".

Bob

[Gary Ruben]

Re: New Thread Needed

Hi Gary:

Just wish you'd started a new thread with this new " World According to Ruben ".

Bob

Year 2 starts Sept. 15th and I am seriously considering doing that.

I don't know if it's the world according to me. I try to see what is and try to discuss it with some accuracy and analyse from there. I guess analaysing is what chess players do. The real world, and the events which occur, fascinate me and always have. (This doesn't include the tragic events which invoke the same emotions most people have.) We have to have fun.

Anyhow, a new thread is probably in the cards. I bought a new mouse the other day because the wheel on my mouse broke.

[Ed Seedhouse]

Fwiw

For what it may be worth, canada.com is reporting a story attributed to Associated Press stating that "July was the hottest month for the world's oceans in almost 130 years of record-keeping".

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

I love this thread. It takes me away from the message board chess arguments.

I notice a couple of paper companies in B.C. have seen an increase in both demand and pricing for their paper products and are restarting machines and production lines. Recall for people who were laid off from their jobs months ago. We can only hope the demand remains and strengthens.

Natural gas pricing continues to languish. This is a strange one. The auto industry, which has been picking up, uses and awesome amount of natural gas. I'm reading the U.S. Cash for Clunkers program sold some 700,000 vehicles. It a large number and I'd have to read it somewhere else before I convince myself the number is correct. I'm also reading auto companies are putting on extra shifts and opening closed plants to rebuild the stock. I'd assume the parts makers are also working hard to build parts going into the autos. A lot of high energy industries are involved in this. As an example, a lot of energy goes into the glass making process for the windshields and windows for a car or truck.

At current natural gas prices I find myself wondering if the western natural gas producers and provinces are helping to keep down car prices and rebuild inventories at a lower cost.

I'm reading the optimism is ahead of the reality in the recovery. Some kind of correction is due in the stock market optimism and enthusiasm. I'm not so sure. When some are asked for their definition of a correction they say a 10 to 15% retracement of the gain. Others say new lows. Still, it looks to me like the Americans are buying their way out of the problem. I follow the trends of the American Elephant, rather than the smaller Canadian branch plant, resource based, economy. I like to use the Dow Jones Transport index. I think it's a good indicator of the increase or decrease of the kind of consumer items which signal an economic upturn or downturn. Recently the transport index is lagging the Dow Jones industrial index but the trend is in the same direction. Still, I'd like to see a further strengthening of the Transport index before I'm fully convinced. Probably the correction the analysts call for in Sept and Oct is possibly but I don't think it's necessarily imminent.

DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Hi Gary:

To be tiresome, I wish you'd start " Depression II " or " Recovery " or soomething, as a new thread. I so hate having to scroll through all this thread to see what you, or others, are bleating about this time.

Bob

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

All the talk of a correction has been going on for months, mostly from stock analysts that totally missed the boat that this is a bull market. They are fishing to be "right" just once. I think all of the Canadian banks except CIBC will go in short order to their 52 week high and possibly $2-$8 higher ( BMO and RY already hit their highs ). Any "correction" will be the usual 4%-8% profit taking that occurs when people get nervous, but I'm not sure this can happen to the banks when their posting huge earnings right now ( except CIBC ).

I think the metals other then silver/gold have had a huge run and they are susceptable to a meaningful correction before they can go up even higher. So if you have something like Teck Comminco at $28 it could easily drop back to $16-$20 within days if there is any panic selling ( short term put options could be a windfall ). This can't happen if copper/metal prices continues higher but if copper drops big one day it could trigger a sector wide correction. Natural gas is a supply and demand issue it's going to keep going down I think there is tons of supply.

There will be a lot of large institutional investors coming into the market in September. I think they'll buy the big successful names, drive them even higher, and the "correction" if we can call it that would involved temporarily driving the stocks back to today's prices at some point. The exception might be resource based companies that will be highly volatile. I think TCK.B and RUS are very risky. If the bull continues TD might even hit $75 next week ( BMO/RY $60 ). One wildcard is Cameco, there are wildly divergent opinions on it's trend but if it can break through $32 it will go to $36-$40 in short order. It could also correct, but by next year I think it will hit $40+.