Federal election 2011 predictions

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  • Federal election 2011 predictions

    How about a thread for the 2011 federal election results!? Today is voting day; get out there and vote, early and often!

    I'm predicting:
    Conservatives: 142
    New Democrats: 74
    Liberals: 55
    Bloc: 35
    Independents / Greens: 2

    Total: 308

  • #2
    Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

    Two scientific projections:

    http://threehundredeight.blogspot.co...-minority.html

    http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html
    Christopher Mallon
    FIDE Arbiter

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

      Conservatives: 135
      NDP: 70
      Liberals: 65
      Bloc: 37
      Ind (Helena G.): 1
      "We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
      "Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
      "If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey

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      • #4
        Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

        CTV.ca:

        " The latest polls, completed Sunday by Nanos Research, show the Conservatives holding a six-point lead over the NDP. "

        Bob

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

          Conservatives: 140 ( 143 )
          NDP: 80 (37 )
          Liberals: 60 ( 77 )
          Bloc: 26 ( 49 )
          Green: 1 ( 0 )
          Other/Independent (Helena Guergis): 1 ( 2 )

          ( ) = 2008 election result

          Total 308

          Note: Dead Heat Total: Conservatives/Independent - 141; NDP/Liberal / Green Coalition- 141
          Balance of Power - Bloc - 26!!

          Bob
          Last edited by Bob Armstrong; Monday, 2nd May, 2011, 08:54 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

            Conservatives: 139
            NDP: 75
            Liberals: 60
            Bloc: 34

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

              Trivial comments about the election:

              1) No Conservative is running in the riding of Portneuf-Jacques Cartier. This is due to the incumbant (independant Andre Arthur) who is expected to win, and is a "closet Conservative".

              2) Brian Sarwer-Foner is running for the Green Party in Mount Royal (Montreal). He is related to (uncle of?) Jeff Sarwer.

              3) Gaston and Jacques Gourde - are they related? They are both running in Lotbiniere.

              4) Louis and Pierre Lacroix are running in Trois-Rivieres.

              5) Claude and Sylvio Morin are running in Beauce.

              6) Pierre and Sylvie Lemieux are running in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

              7) Doug and Peter Ferguson are running in London West.

              8) Willowdale and Acadie-Bathurst have only 3 candidates. All other ridings have at least 4.

              9) The Green Party candidate in York South-Weston is named Sonny Day.

              10) The Green Party candidate in York West is named Unblind Kheper Keseb Efekh Tibbin.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

                My prediction:

                Conservatives - 141
                NDP-100
                Liberals-51
                Bloc-15
                Greens-1

                No independents. I'm in Helena Guergis's riding and I doubt she can win it. And I think the ndp surge and strategic voting may defeat André Arthur in Quebec.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

                  I'm going with 144 Cons, 68 Libs, 38 BQ, 2 independant/Greens, 56 NDP.
                  Christopher Mallon
                  FIDE Arbiter

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

                    Originally posted by Christopher Mallon View Post
                    I'm going with 144 Cons, 68 Libs, 38 BQ, 2 independant/Greens, 56 NDP.
                    Hi Chris,

                    That is a bold prediction!

                    Basically you are saying the hype about the NDP will not translate into seats (more votes but no seats)...

                    you may be closer than the rest of us.

                    Larry

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Federal election 2011 predictions - ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE MINORITY GOVERNMENT

                      Originally posted by Bob Armstrong View Post
                      Conservatives: 140 ( 143 )
                      NDP: 80 (37 )
                      Liberals: 60 ( 77 )
                      Bloc: 26 ( 49 )
                      Green: 1 ( 0 )
                      Other/Independent (Helena Guergis): 1 ( 2 )

                      ( ) = 2008 election result

                      Total 308

                      Note: Dead Heat Total: Conservatives/Independent - 141; NDP/Liberal / Green Coalition- 141
                      Balance of Power - Bloq - 26!!

                      Bob

                      Greetings, my Prediction:

                      ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE MINORITY GOVERNMENT

                      Conservative Party Parti Conservateur 145
                      Liberal Party Parti Liberal 63
                      N.D.P. N.P.D. 65
                      Bloc Quebecois 33
                      Green 1
                      Independent 1
                      Total 308

                      :)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re : Federal election 2011 predictions

                        Conservative Party 145
                        N.D.P. 72
                        Liberal Party 68
                        Bloc 30
                        Green 0
                        Independent 1

                        I hope the N.D.P gets more seats, but I have the impression that many people will change their mind before voting :(

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

                          I'm guessing that in some ridings, the NDP will not be able to get out enough votes. So actually my prediction is they end up more around 25% support rather than the 28-30 they've been polling at.

                          The other question is will that flip any Liberal ridings to Conservative due to vote splitting? Most flippable "Liberal" seats are actually already in Conservative hands though, for example Kitchener Center and Kitchener-Waterloo to name two local to me.
                          Christopher Mallon
                          FIDE Arbiter

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

                            Will there be a prize for a winner ? 50 CFC points, for example ?

                            My prediction:

                            Conservative Party Parti Conservateur 154
                            Liberal Party Parti Liberal 67
                            N.D.P. N.P.D. 56
                            Bloc Quebecois 31
                            Green 0
                            Independent 0

                            Total 308

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

                              Originally posted by Victor Itkine View Post
                              Will there be a prize for a winner ? 50 CFC points, for example ?

                              My prediction:

                              Conservative Party Parti Conservateur 154
                              Liberal Party Parti Liberal 67
                              N.D.P. N.P.D. 56
                              Bloc Quebecois 31
                              Green 0
                              Independent 0

                              Total 308
                              Hi Victor,

                              I will pay for a $50 gift certificate to Strategy Games (I pay from my pocket and not Strategy Games).

                              So here is the criteria:

                              1 - You must post here before 9:30 pm Eastern Daylight Time
                              2 - Everyone starts with 100 points
                              3 - If you have the parties listed in order of seats won (top 4 parties only) you are still in the race otherwise you are eliminated. -100
                              4 - If you are within 3 seats of the winning number for a party you lose no points, otherwise you lose 1 point for every seat difference. (So if you say a party will get 100 seats and they get 97...you lose 0 points...if they get 96 seats...you lose 4 points)
                              5 - For every exact number you pick for a party (top 4 parties) you get 5 bonus points and for Green and Independent....you get 2 bonus points if you get the exact number.

                              I have no idea how much sense this makes as I just dreamed this up on the fly. On the otherhand, it is my $50 so I can spend it as I want :) and yes...I can win my own prize :) :)

                              Larry

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