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I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!
I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!
Bob A, NDP supporter
Bob, I expect to collect and not pay. :)
The problem with polls is many people simply hang up when they receive a call asking voting intentions.
The election is still a few years from now.
Remember how the Wildrose Party was supposed to win in Alberta? Conservatives had a pretty big lead in the polls in Ontario.
Mulcair appears to be the wrong person for the job of replacing Layton. He is neither a good tactician nor a clever strategist. He doesn't have Jack Layton's likeability quotient. Subtract at least five points in an election campaign.
Last edited by Vlad Drkulec; Friday, 8th June, 2012, 01:25 PM.
He's perfect for the job if you want him to lose the election so that you can win your bet. :)
It's not about the money. :) It's about political ideology. If the majority of the voters are willing to embrace a political party such as the NDP at that point in time.
Over the next few years as the Eurozone churns with their financial problems the voters will most likely see the results of the free spending policies of some of the governments involved. Some nations may well leave and we'll see what their new currency will be worth. Then the Canadian voters can decide if they want NDP policies.
Anyhow, there's a long time to go and we don't know who the Liberal party leader will be.
Mulcair appears to be the wrong person for the job of replacing Layton. He is neither a good tactician nor a clever strategist. He doesn't have Jack Layton's likeability quotient. Subtract at least five points in an election campaign.
CTV's go-to political commentator Craig Oliver likes what Mr. Mulcair has done so far, leadership-wise. Is it that at least one of [Craig, Vlad] is wrong, or are they talking about different things?
Putting aside the possibility that politicians might take a stand on principle, and thinking only of strategy and tactics, Mr. Mulcair's oil sands gambit seems aimed at capturing voter share in (Nova Scotia and) Ontario, where NDP is strong, versus losing it in Alberta, where there is scant hope of NDP seats anyway. Pundits spoke about "the West" because NDP has seats in BC. I don't think that BC voters will care either way, except on principle (or to put it another way, both Alberta and Ontario are "back east" to us).
Mr. Mulcair could have saved this gambit for the heat of the election campaign, but he chose to do it immediately upon acceding to the NDP leadership. I can see at least two good reasons for this tactical move. First, the Liberals are in disarray (even moreso now in Quebec and BC, provincially) so what better time to stake out the middle ground? Second, as Gary pointed out, Upper Canadians don't like the idea of anybody other than the Family-Compact-approved Grits or Tories ruling the country. By making a big move early, the NDP are getting the Ontario voters used to the idea. Like the frog in the saucepan, if you like.
It's difficult to know what's a good move or a bad move in politics, though you can check in for partial results at the next election. Polls are less informative than Fritz. But at the very least, I'd have to say that Mulcair was thinking before he acted.
Or maybe Mr. Mulcair should shave before Mr. Harper makes beards illegal. "You can stand with Schick, or with the pinko child pornographers." Now that would be a tactical move.
For the NDP to win so many ridings in Quebec next time, the Bloc is effectively finished. I don't think that. Some of the incumbent MP's will have a difficult time holding their riding in my own estimation.
Who wins the Liberal leadership will be important.
The politics of division and envy play well for awhile. But I have to wonder if Mulcair is the person to keep Canada united.
A pipeline is currently a big issue. What do you personally think would happen if all the pipes in Canada were shut down? The gas pipelines, the oil pipeline, the water pipelines and the sewage pipelines? The proposed pipeline is basically nothing in comparison to the pipelines already in existence. Educated people understand that.
Let's look at the wealth tax in Ontario which the Liberal government has in their budget with the NDP urging. Ontario lost 18,700 jobs last month.
The socialist paradise is wonderful. Nobody works because the wealthy bosses take the jobs and move them elsewhere.
The cynic in me supposes that Craig Oliver (who can hardly be accused of political impartiality from what I have seen of his work) encouraging Mulcair in his suicidal mission is that it is all part of a poorly hidden agenda to ensure the self-destruction of the NDP so that his former pal's son Justin Trudeau may emerge victorious as a future leader of the Liberal party. I don't see how this NDP veering off into divisiveness can be construed as any kind of a middle ground.
Attacking Alberta is like attacking the lottery. Objectively the numbers suggest that you can get away with it but in reality you will be punished because more people believe that they will somehow defy the odds and benefit from a winning ticket. Many see Alberta as that get out of jail free card in Canada's version of monopoly. In reality the whole west is like that. It is sucking the young people out of Windsor chasing the dream of a better life. Mess with that at your own peril.
Almost immediately the oil industry launched a fairly effective ad campaign that reframed the oil patch and its impact on the Canadian economy as a resource for all Canadians. Western premiers attacked Mulcair since they know that they are next in line. You can't attack Alberta without attacking Saskatchewan and Manitoba at least along the lines of the National Energy Program Act Two. British Columbia has thrown its lot in with the rest of the west. The NDP does stand to lose some seats in this scenario.
I think Gary is right. In three years when the thought of elections is back in the air in Canada we will have some good examples of cautionary tales courtesy of the socialist thinkers in charge in Europe.
I did not vote for Mulcair in the leadership race - I had some severe reservations.
But I decided I'd give him the benefit of the doubt, though, and throw my support behind him once elected, and that seems to have been a good decision.
He has performed well above my expectations to date, and my fears have not come to the fore.
I think we will see this neck and neck polling for the next three years, regardless of the new Liberal leader. People will get used to the idea, that Canada COULD have a democratic socialist government - and the European situation is not relevant to what is going to be a " made-in-Canada " democratic socialism.
It would seem Elizabeth May is the true leader of the opposition. Well, at least for this week anyway. May will be leading the opposition forces into the filibuster this week to convince Harper to breakup the omnibus budget bill. :D
A lot of unrelated stuff has been crammed into the budget bill, including gutting various environmental laws, and much much more. We should not be jeopardizing the future. Majority or not, bills need to be properly vetted by parliament. It's called democracy.
Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Monday, 11th June, 2012, 09:32 AM.
Voters will get to see three more years of a lot of things, Vlad. Mr. Mulcair is counting on it.
If your long term strategy is to wait for your opponents to blunder in a catastrophic manner, you might need more than three years. The Liberals will make a resurgence next time and most of that will be at the expense of the NDP.
It would seem Elizabeth May is the true leader of the opposition. Well, at least for this week anyway. May will be leading the opposition forces into the filibuster this week to convince Harper to breakup the omnibus budget bill. :D
A lot of unrelated stuff has been crammed into the budget bill, including gutting various environmental laws, and much much more. We should not be jeopardizing the future. Majority or not, bills need to be properly vetted by parliament. It's called democracy.
Elizabeth May is a joke striving for significance in a world that doesn't care for her brand of paganism anymore. The only pockets of support are the people who hope to benefit by the new order and they have been thwarted for the time being. The problem with predicting imminent catastrophe is that people get inured to it especially when the predictions don't pan out.
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