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The Ont. NDP are making some progress but the problem is the same one that exists federally - the split in the centre left:
Global News @globalnews: If a provincial election were held today, 37% of voters would support Hudak, 29% NDP and 28% Liberals.
Still this may indicate the possibility of the Federal NDP gaining Ontario seats, in their march towards becoming the federal government.
However, it is true that this scenario may be derailed (and result in a successive PC gov't) if the LPC resurge and the centre-left vote is split. The potential of the alleged Liberal PC revival is unclear at this point.
By: Chantal Hébert National Affairs, Published on Mon Apr 29 2013 - The Star.com
The tendency to prematurely write the political obituaries of living leaders the better to marvel at their resurrection if and when the need arises is one of the less endearing features of Canadian punditry....
But the fine print of the Harris/Decima polls reveals that even in the midst of a mini-wave of Trudeaumania, Mulcair is alive and kicking in Quebec.
On most leadership-related questions (with the notable exception of who would best represent Canada abroad) Quebecers give Mulcair higher scores than Trudeau.
Sixty-three per cent have a favorable impression of the NDP leader and four in ten Quebec voters believe that he has the judgment and the experience to be prime minister.........
Mulcair’s solid Quebec standing does not guarantee that the NDP will make the leap to power in 2015 [ Bob - I think it does!]. But the NDP has strong roots in most of the rest of the country and a history of sturdiness in electoral adversity. That combination suggests that the party will not easily be pushed out of Quebec and back to the margins of the House of Commons.
With Ontario a three-way battlefield and the Prairies a long-time Liberal no-man’s land, Trudeau has to do better in Quebec to bring his party back to the major leagues in the next election.
The evidence suggests that to reach that goal he will have to climb over Mulcair’s far-from-dead body. For now it might be wise to give the media shovels a rest.
Do you think Chantal is right that Trudeau in Quebec is over-hyped?
How many Quebec NDP MP's have left the party? Last I heard, I think it was 3 but the old memory could be wrong.
I think when the election comes around in 2 years the attack ads and rebuttals will polarize it down to a 2 party slug out.
The current attack ad is interesting. The government claims there are no bad jobs. Yet the conservative attack ad I watched seems to indicate Trudeau is being belittled for having been a teacher. I wish they would post a list of what is considered to be an approved job.
What's your take on the BC election? With the polls I'd heard and the general discontent I'd been reading about I thought the NDP would win easily. But they seem to have been dropped kicked through the goal posts of life. Was the NDP too Green for the voters?
Anyhow, I don't really follow BC politics very closely. For me it's a case of Who Cares? Not me. :)
The traditional attack on the NDP of a "tax & spend" government seems to have won the day in B.C.. It is an image the NDP has to deal with, and it is difficult when the NDP track record provincially has been spotty.
I guess BC may not be as fertile federal NDP ground in the next federal election as I had hoped. But the voters may be disappointed in how the Provincial Liberals perform before then. It remains to be seen.
And admittedly, in the next federal election, Trudeau is the wild card that does throw a fair cloud of uncertainty into the mix.
But I still think my $ 20 is quite safe. And will end up with a partner!!
I see here in Ontario, despite the protestations of the NDP against the minority Liberal government and the gas plant and deleted emails, the NDP voted with the Liberals on the budget to ensure they continue to govern. I guess the money the Liberals provided for the NDP initiatives did the trick. All that green money made the Liberals smell good to the NDP.
It looks like Ontario is shaping up as a two party battle at election time. The Liberal/NDP coalition versus the Conservatives. As long as Horvath continues to act like Wynne's Poodle, nipping at her heels in the legislature but supporting Wynne when she's thrown a cookie or two, she's not Premier material. Frankly, Premier Wynne looks a whole lot smarter to me than Andrea Horwath in the political arena.
On the Federal scene the opposition is heating up against the Prime Minister. I've noticed the angrier the opposition has become over the years the more ridings the Prime Minister wins in the next election.
Though the opposition may be heating up, it is discouraging to see nothing stick to our teflon PM. I do fear for my $ 20!! What does Harper have to do to lose some of his support?? What are my neighbours thinking??
I don't think the federal election dynamics are as simple as you suggest. Three of the main political party leaders are from Quebec and only the Prime Minister from the rest of Canada. Quebec has a PQ government.
I offer this only as an observation. However, I don't think it should be dismissed as a factor in the next election.
Though the opposition may be heating up, it is discouraging to see nothing stick to our teflon PM. I do fear for my $ 20!! What does Harper have to do to lose some of his support?? What are my neighbours thinking??
Bob
In all likelihood it would take the launch of a new Reform party to split the right vote. It is simply inconsistent for anyone with traditional religious faith to vote for the NDP and this is a growing segment if you see the growth in evangelical churches. Harper also has been smart about appealing to new Canadians who share the same family values so he does not have the same vulnerability that the Republicans do in the U.S. To a lesser extent the Liberals are also a hard sell to this group but they typically are more of a center left coalition that has the possibility to appeal to some of those traditional voters. Lately the Harper problems have come from the Senate which he would like to abolish and some of his own party members who would like to govern like they never have to get elected again.
The fact is that areas like the west where the conservatives are strong will have more seats next time.
The Toronto Star is not the place to look for objective political analysis. It is obvious who they are stumping for (Hint: its not Harper). Trudeau will hurt the NDP more than he does the Conservatives. The question is whether he will be able to hurt them enough to unseat Harper. I'm betting not but my feeling is that it really doesn't matter in the long run. Somehow we manage to survive whoever is in charge. If the Liberal party could drop these idiotic green energy policies then even I might have to consider them but at the moment the Conservatives win by default. They give lip service to drinking the green koolaid but they don't throw any money into it which is the most one can hope for until the green bubble bursts. Its been a rather cool spring... Can't be doing much for those global average temperatures that seem not to be rising anymore.
Any stats/polls I have seen recently seem to indicate a shrinking of church attenders in Canada, across all ages, particularly among the more conservative/traditional groups. Have you see stats showing otherwise? I'd be very interested. In my city (a more conservative city) there are a growing number of people voting NDP/Green who attend the bigger churches in town. It's a slow trend, but a growing one.
I can't speak to the effects on politics of it all since I don't vote or ever care to. I just found that particular comment interesting, regarding growing evangelical churches.
Any stats/polls I have seen recently seem to indicate a shrinking of church attenders in Canada, across all ages, particularly among the more conservative/traditional groups.
Evangelicals may be conservative politically but I don't think they qualify as conservative/traditional groups within the religious context. The Catholic Church seems to be closing and consolidating parishes left and right. I can think of two very large evangelical churches in Windsor where the churches had to move out of the city center in order to accommodate huge growth in numbers. Newspaper reports and simply eyeballing the full parking lots as I drive by suggests that at least the two largest local groups that I am aware of are experiencing significant growth. Parkwood has a 2800 seat sanctuary and a 200 seat chapel and the other (Windsor Christian Fellowship) is touting plans to build a 1500 seat sanctuary for services. Parkwood started out in a building that could fit three hundred or maybe four hundred. Windsor Christian Fellowship met in a gym at the Teutonia club before buying a large tract of land near Costco, Best Buy, Lowe's and a slew of other big box retailers. I only need to look out my front door on a Sunday to notice that the smaller non-denominational church parking lot across the street is full and cars are lined up all along the street. They built a large gym a few years ago to accommodate more people.
The Parkwood Gospel Temple group indicates that they have "birthed the Korean church, the Dove Deaf Fellowship church, the Romanian church and the Spanish church....all of which have expanded out to the ethnic and diverse population of Windsor." I believe that the Spanish church is one I drive by every Thursday when I go to teach my beginner/intermediate chess class. They also look to be expanding as they seem to have taken over a couple of buildings next to a medical complex.
Have you see stats showing otherwise? I'd be very interested. In my city (a more conservative city) there are a growing number of people voting NDP/Green who attend the bigger churches in town. It's a slow trend, but a growing one.
I can't speak to the effects on politics of it all since I don't vote or ever care to. I just found that particular comment interesting, regarding growing evangelical churches.
As far as I know most of the evangelical/non-denominational/Pentecostal churches are growing across Canada. I myself don't attend church. If I had kids I probably would.
Potentially a shift from more traditional churches (who are shutting down or dying off all over the place) to some bigger, less conservative congregations. However, the total number of folks who associate themselves with a particular faith, or as church attenders, is dropping according to everything I have read. However, maybe the evangelical population is growing as you suggest. I'm going to try and see if I can dig up some stats for my own interest.
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