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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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I'm not too concerned but if Mr. Abou-Nassif wants me to review his rating he can contact me. With the new bonus point system, one more good result will likely bring him up to his current playing strength.
The same 10 positions were discussed in 2008 in a thread on the Rybka Forum. Rybka 2.3.2a taking 30 sec. per move, which should be above 2600 on most hardware, in fact scored 2110.
Well I ran Houdini 2.0 (the 64-bit pay version) to depth 21 taking several minutes per move. On the 4 positions that seem not to have a clear choice, #s 1,7,9,10, I ran it to depth 25, taking about an hour each time! That should be over the CCRL 40-40 measured 3200+ strength. And what did it score? 2110!
About the four cases, on position #1 I chose 1...Rxf3 which the applet prefers, but 1...Bxa6 is stronger as after 2.Bxa6 (else never castle), 2...Rxf3! is even better. On #7 I think Houdini's ...Nc5 is just as good as ...Nh7, because b4 is met by ...Nfxe4! (though White still keeps a tiny pull) and otherwise Black gets in ...a5 to anchor the Knight. On #9 Be3-d4 is the favorite move anyway. On #10, yes Nimzovich chose ...Qd7 but it wasn't necessarily best, and Houdini at depth 25 likes ...Ne7 for -0.06 net to Black.
The Rybkaforum thread includes the applet's expected moves, and it seems 2380 is the max score, which is rather arbitrary. Positions 4--6 are quickly evaluated well over +4.00, which means they would be eliminated in my system, and #5 has the "dual" Nh6+ which is also crushing. My work does this kind of thing scientifically, on positions from actual games, and with a much greater sample size. And even with a sample of over 250 moves, the error bars are generally no closer than +/- 200 Elo in either direction. This kind of error is not a fault of my modeling---it's intrinsic to chess, part-and-parcel of the rating system itself where a 200 Elo difference means (only!) 75-76% superiority. A 10-position quiz is fun but cannot be more than that.
Last edited by Kenneth Regan; Monday, 27th August, 2012, 06:07 PM.
Reason: Made a little clearer
Yeah, I had some fun with it and changed one of my answers to a complete Queen sac for absolutely nothing and it only dropped my supposed ELO by 60 points.
Also, it's interesting to read over the thread from 2008. Many arguments are that the 2110 for Rybka were pretty accurate since it was about "chess understanding" and not tactics.
I wonder what those people would think now with the significantly stronger Houdini working on it? They were only getting 15-ply depth with Rybka.
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