Tweet
Re: SHOGI (Try it)
Shogi has greater depth than chess in the following precise sense, one first formulated by László Meró: Say two players are separated by a "class unit" if the stronger one wins 75% of the points against the weaker one. In chess this is about a 200 Elo difference. If you put adult beginners around 600, then chess has 11 class units from beginner to World Champion. In Shogi the corresponding figure I once looked up was 14.
I believe this is actually the determining factor for the ability of computers to conquer a game, a kind of "Moore's Law". CCRL ratings suggest that computers are 2 class units ahead of us, but that's 94% in terms of expectation---like GM Adams losing 5.5-0.5 to Hydra but would Carlsen or Aronian expect to fall that bad? Still, that leaves comptuers still 1 unit short at Shogi---and many units short at Go (depth 25?).
For another indication, GM Larry Kaufman---who co-authored the latest Rybka versions---once beat me at Shogi (playing fairly slow) by giving me odds of Kaku and Hisha---Bishop and Rook. Since Shogi has only one of each and no queen, that's really steep odds. Then he told me the Japanese champion could beat him at the same odds!
You have to work harder to win at odds because captured pieces are returned to the players for paratroop use, so you can't just exchange down.
Shogi has greater depth than chess in the following precise sense, one first formulated by László Meró: Say two players are separated by a "class unit" if the stronger one wins 75% of the points against the weaker one. In chess this is about a 200 Elo difference. If you put adult beginners around 600, then chess has 11 class units from beginner to World Champion. In Shogi the corresponding figure I once looked up was 14.
I believe this is actually the determining factor for the ability of computers to conquer a game, a kind of "Moore's Law". CCRL ratings suggest that computers are 2 class units ahead of us, but that's 94% in terms of expectation---like GM Adams losing 5.5-0.5 to Hydra but would Carlsen or Aronian expect to fall that bad? Still, that leaves comptuers still 1 unit short at Shogi---and many units short at Go (depth 25?).
For another indication, GM Larry Kaufman---who co-authored the latest Rybka versions---once beat me at Shogi (playing fairly slow) by giving me odds of Kaku and Hisha---Bishop and Rook. Since Shogi has only one of each and no queen, that's really steep odds. Then he told me the Japanese champion could beat him at the same odds!
You have to work harder to win at odds because captured pieces are returned to the players for paratroop use, so you can't just exchange down.
Comment