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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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You do realize, Jean, that he's the highest rated U12 in the country and already master strength (2212). Have you taken a look at prior U10 WYCC Champions? Most go on to become strong or even elite GMs. You'll find the names of Luke McShane (1992), Etienne Bacrot (1993), Boris Grachev (1995), Pendyala Harickrishna (1996), Evgeny Romanov (1998), Dimitry Andreikin (1999), Nguyen Ngoc Truong Son (2000), Eltaj Safarli (2002), Sanan Sjugirov (2003), Yu Yangyi (2004), and Sahaj Grover (2005). Based on the empirical evidence, I'd have to say that the chances of Jason Cao ultimately becoming a GM are rather propitious.
Yeah but none of those now-GMs had the misfortune of learning chess in Canada. I'm curious to see how he improves as well, but I have serious doubts.
Yeah but none of those now-GMs had the misfortune of learning chess in Canada. I'm curious to see how he improves as well, but I have serious doubts.
True enough, Aman, but he does have the good fortune to follow trail blazers like Eric Hansen and yourself (:
And let's not forget we're talking about a kid who turned himself from a Class C player to a WYCC champion in just 4 months. I, for one, would never sell this kid short.
Tangentially, Canadian chess is starting to have a few bright stars on the horizon. Richard Wang is only 14, already an IM, and the #4 seed in Mirabor.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if all 3 of you join Eric as GMs in due course.
Given the title of this thread, I'm happy to report that Harmony chalked up another win tonight at the ACC, besting Daniel Sirkovich, (1663). She remains my top pick for Canadian gold in Mirabor. I'd peg her chances of same at roughly 1 in 4 and those of Richard Wang, the #4 seed in the U14 Open, at about 1 in 8.
If these odds are realistic, then the probability of at least one of these two winning gold is slightly better than 1 in 3 (11/32 to be precise).
Not to exclude the distaff side of future GMs from U10 WYCC Champions, I see that both Yifan Hou (2003) and Humpy Koneru (1997) were U10 WYCC Girls Champions.
Of course, the only woman higher rated than these two, Judit Polgar, never competed in girls only events. And she won both the WYCC U12 Open (1988) and WYCC U14 Open (1990). Vesselin Topalov won the WYCC U14 in 1989 to prevent what would have been a 3-peat for Judit.
I have to raise those Harmony odds to 1 in 5. Previously the WYCC 2012 site had only listed 3 U8 girls with FIDE ratings > 1500. Those were the defending champion, and hence WFM, Bibissara Assaubayeva (1698) from Kazakhstan; Taisiya Tereshechkina (1642) from Russia; and Camille Ginovart (1577) from France. Now, however, there's a new name and #1 seed, Judit Juhasz (1710) from Hungary.
You do realize, Jean, that he's the highest rated U12 in the country and already master strength (2212). Have you taken a look at prior U10 WYCC Champions? Most go on to become strong or even elite GMs.
The fact that they have become strong GMs is hardly related to their taking part or winning WYCC titles. These events for them were just normal or accidental milestones in their development. If they had not played these championships they would still have become strong GMs. I am all for Canada sending such players at the WYCC but that is not what we are doing. We send too many that have not done their classes yet, too many without the necessary preparation and coaching with no chances whatsoever for a high finish. This is wasted money.
If some parents that can afford it see such experiences as valuable for their kids for social reasons, fine. But then chess organisations should not finance those social trips. On the other hand, for those very few special kids that we may have, I say go ahead. How many do we have in that category for each WYCC ? Maybe 4-5 at the most, not 30 or 40.
btw- i never played a WYCC till I was 16. I played in strong adult tournaments instead until I got to the point where I could actually be competitive on the world stage
But then chess organisations should not finance those social trips. On the other hand, for those very few special kids that we may have, I say go ahead. How many do we have in that category for each WYCC ? Maybe 4-5 at the most, not 30 or 40.
To the best of my knowledge I do not believe that the CFC is financing the WYCC team. I believe that the top player in each category gets some financial support but that this is from the profit from the CYCC. Players who qualify but who are not the top dogs pay their own freight (in other word, their parents pay). Consequently, I don't think we've got a "gravy train" situation (to use the words of the mayor of Toronto for any and all alleged boondoggles).
I may be misinformed about the costs to the CFC of the WYCC, in which case I will stand corrected.
Yes we are. When I was playing someone from down under in correspondence a number of years ago, he would make reference to the "few good Canadian players". Both in OTB and CC. I think he must have had a list or something. :)
He made reference to the Canadian Cricket Team in one of his letters. We played by mail back then. I told him I didn't know Canada had a Cricket Team and the conversation kind of dried up after that.
The Pugi Fund, which has a mandate to assist strong juniors to travel to international competitions, donated $400 to each junior on the team.
By the way, anyone who wants to put the Pugi Fund in their estate planning can contact me.
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