Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

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  • #1

    Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

    Last night the Chicago BlackHawks won the Stanley Cup by scoring 2 goals in the last minute and 16, right in Boston's home arena. So Boston was leading this elimination game (for them) 2-1 with less than 2 minutes remaining. The first of the two goals was scored with the Chicago goalie pulled for an extra skater. The second was scored with even skaters just 17 seconds later.

    It has certainly happened on rare occassion that the visiting team in such a Stanley Cup Finals elimination game for the home team scores in the last 2 minutes to send the game to overtime. On even rarer occassions, that same visiting team has won the game in overtime. In fact, Boston did just that to Toronto in THIS YEAR'S playoffs!

    But has it ever happened that the visiting team scores both the tying AND winning goals in the last minute and half of regulation time, against the home team, which is facing elimination in the Stanley Cup Finals?

    No. According to MSN, "the 'Hawks became the first team to come back from a goal down in the final two minutes to win in regulation of a Stanley Cup-clinching game".

    We don't have much data to go on, but perhaps the odds of such a thing happening are a million to one. And if that is true, then the BlackHawks won the game by cheating. Someone in the stands was transmitting data to the players, whose helmets had RF receivers, and this enabled the goal scorer to be in the right position to score the goal in each case.

    Can't prove it? That's ok, the odds are a million to one, no trial necessary, BlackHawks are guilty.

    The moral of the story: Don't ever do anything legally questionable that has odds of a million-to-one against.

    Absurd? No... Ivanovian.

    Word has it that Felix Dumont has started a program on a 48 Terabyte RAM supercomputer to calculate this:

    What are the odds that a team will win a clinching playoff series game by scoring in the last 2 minutes to tie it, then score in overtime to win it... AND that that same team will in the same playoff season lose a clinching series game by having the other team score in the last 2 minutes to tie it and then score again before that same 2 minutes are up?

    Rumours are that such odds are multi-billion to one against... and that it would take 700 Universeniums (age of our universe) for this to occur... but you are living in that Universenium, and in that playoff year, right now!

    News Flash: The final conclusion of Felix' program is out: GOD DOES EXIST, SHE DOES PLAY DICE, AND SHE IS CHEATING. Satan has filed a lawsuit, but no one will come forward to be Devil's Advocate.
    Only the rushing is heard...
    Onward flies the bird.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

    PEDD's (performance-enhancing digital device) are permitted in hockey, at all levels. As far as I know.

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

      You need to get out a bit, Paul. Unwind. Unplug. Follow the White Rabbit.
      Dogs will bark, but the caravan of chess moves on.

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

        (Tongue firmly planted in cheek ... ) Yeah! Not only must they have cheated, but they had the audacity to THANK the people of Boston!! What up with that? What devious schemes are they planning next?! Round up the usual suspects!

        http://www.boston.com/news/source/20...ll-page_g.html
        Dogs will bark, but the caravan of chess moves on.

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        • #5
          Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

          That's gold Jerry, GOLD!!

          On a more serious note. If a team scores 3 goals per game, it's a 5% probability of scoring a goal in 1 minute. Scoring two goals in one minute? It's 0.05 x 0.05 = 1/400.

          So yeah, two goals in one minute is expected to happen once every 400 minutes of play for ONE team (and there's two of these on the ice, btw). Or about once every 7 games.

          Now, let's add the restriction that this specific event HAS to happen in the last minute of the game. That's 1/60*1/7 = 1/420 or once every 420 games. Not once every 1 000 000 games. If you account for the fact that both teams could do that, it will happen once every 200 games, roughly.

          It just happens that this year, the Stanley cup winners stumbled upon such an event. Nothing unexpected here. Especially when you consider that the Stanley cup has been disputed for what, 100 years.

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          • #6
            Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

            Now, what would be on the level of Ivanov (sorry about that), would be for the Blackhawks to do that 40 years in a row. Now that would be something, wouldn't it.

            Guess what? It won't happen in this universe.

            Comment

            • #7
              Re : Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

              Mathieu, you shouldn't lose your time with this guy... It's a little bit like trying to explain basic statistics to a little kid... Except that the kid will one day be able to understand them, so our efforts are not completely in vain.
              Last edited by Felix Dumont; Friday, 28th June, 2013, 10:11 PM.

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              • #8
                Re: Re : Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

                I actually enjoy doing some of these calculations.

                I mean, the question is: how likely it is for a team to win the Stanley cup by scoring two goals in the last minute of the critical game? That's an interesting question. And the answer is: it's much more likely than you would think at first.

                Took me about 1 minute to do the math (I'm getting old). Might as well write it down and share (another minute).

                I've said it many times: with these boards, I save about 50$/month because I don't need cable TV anymore!

                Then again, I agree with you that there's a certain dose of Bonham you should not exceed. As for any form of entertainment, too much is unhealthy.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

                  Originally posted by Mathieu Cloutier View Post
                  That's gold Jerry, GOLD!!

                  On a more serious note. If a team scores 3 goals per game, it's a 5% probability of scoring a goal in 1 minute. Scoring two goals in one minute? It's 0.05 x 0.05 = 1/400.

                  So yeah, two goals in one minute is expected to happen once every 400 minutes of play for ONE team (and there's two of these on the ice, btw). Or about once every 7 games.

                  Now, let's add the restriction that this specific event HAS to happen in the last minute of the game. That's 1/60*1/7 = 1/420 or once every 420 games. Not once every 1 000 000 games. If you account for the fact that both teams could do that, it will happen once every 200 games, roughly.

                  It just happens that this year, the Stanley cup winners stumbled upon such an event. Nothing unexpected here. Especially when you consider that the Stanley cup has been disputed for what, 100 years.

                  Ok, 5% probability of scoring a goal in 1 minute, right? That's your claim.

                  Ok then, times 20 minutes per period = 100% probability of scoring 1 goal per period?

                  That means 100% guaranteed that team is going to score a goal in a single period?

                  The team that is scoring 3 goals per game is scoring them ALWAYS one goal per period?

                  BUSTED.

                  Your mistake: scoring 3 goals per game AVERAGE means scoring 1 goal per period AVERAGE, means scoring .05 goals per minute AVERAGE.

                  You are mixing up AVERAGE with PROBABILITY. A child's mistake. Did you say you're getting older, Mathieu? Can you show us with both hands how old you are?

                  In order to know the probability of that team scoring 2 goals in 1 minute, you have to have some statistics on HOW OFTEN THEY DID THAT. How many times in how many minutes did they actually score 2 goals in 1 minute?

                  Team A might have done it X times in Y minutes. Let's say 5 times in 600 minutes. That's 5 times in 10 games. Their probability is 5/10 = 0.50. In a single game, they have a 50% probability of scoring 2 goals in 1 minute BASED ON ACCUMULATED STATISTICS ON HOW OFTEN THEY'VE DONE IT.

                  Team B has done it 5 times in 6000 minutes. That's 5 times in 100 games. Their probability is 5/100 = .05. In a single game, they have a 5% probability of scoring 2 goals in 1 minute.

                  Are you getting the picture, genius?

                  All your subsequent "probabilities" are so much rubbish, just like your opinions.

                  Just to educate you a little further... you say "let's add the restriction that this specific event HAS to happen in the last minute of the game. That's 1/60"...

                  Your restriction is wrong. It not only has to happen in the last minute of the game, but THEY HAVE TO BE TRAILING BY 1 GOAL WHEN IT HAPPENS IN THE LAST MINUTE OF THE GAME. A game where they are losing 10-0 and they score 2 goals in the last minute only counts as a chance, not as a fait accompli for this particular probability case.

                  So to know the probabilities of that, you have to tally up all the games in NHL history where 2 goals were scored in the last minute by the team that was trailing at the time by 1 goal. And then you have to account for what percentage of those games were Stanley Cup Finals series-clinching games.

                  Good luck with your research. A million to one is starting to sound very conservative.

                  You have much to learn, Grasshopper. When you can snatch the pebble from my hand, it will be time for you to leave.

                  FELIX DUMONT: shame on you for not pointing out to Mathieu his mistakes. I suppose you were caught up in the emotion... of anger against me... for exposing you as a fraud, a wannabe scientist. Maybe next time you can learn to BE OBJECTIVE AND KEEP EMOTION AND OPINION OUT OF IT. THAT'S WHAT SCIENTISTS ARE SUPPOSED TO DO.

                  As Jay Leno likes to say: "Where are the adults?"
                  Only the rushing is heard...
                  Onward flies the bird.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

                    Dude, you really need to get out more often. It's good for your health.

                    Mathieu out
                    Last edited by Mathieu Cloutier; Saturday, 29th June, 2013, 05:02 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Chicago BlackHawks must have cheated

                      Originally posted by Paul Bonham View Post
                      Ok, 5% probability of scoring a goal in 1 minute, right? That's your claim.

                      Ok then, times 20 minutes per period = 100% probability of scoring 1 goal per period?

                      That means 100% guaranteed that team is going to score a goal in a single period?
                      err WHAT

                      an event having a 5% chance of occurring each minute does not suggest that it has a 100% chance of occurring once after 20 minutes

                      it suggests that it has a 5%*(1-5%)^19*20c1 = ~0.377 chance of occurring exactly once after 20 minutes (assuming the events are independent)

                      and a 1-(1-5%)^20 = ~0.642 chance of occurring at least once

                      this is literally like grade ten math lol
                      everytime it hurts, it hurts just like the first (and then you cry till there's no more tears)

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