Geopolitics

[Pargat Perrer]

A thread for general geopolitics topics.

Let's start with: China, Russia, North Korea vs. USA, Europe, South Korea, Taiwan, possibly India

France leader Macron has sounded the alarm bells about a huge coming decline in Europe economies. Why? Because cheap Russian natural gas that once flowed to Europe, enabling industrial competitiveness, has now been diverted to China, and guess what, China is now underpricing Europe significantly. The initial result: mass layoffs, unemployment in of all places GERMANY.

In concert with Macron's warnings, Biden announces new Russian sanctions that are really targeting China. The U.S. is coming to realize that China and Russia are in partnership, along with North Korea, and of course, China sharply criticized the new sanctions.

It's all part of a chess war going on. Actually, more like Risk. USA holds key cards, namely the international banking system. The Russian stock market declined 15% in one day, and 2 major Russian banks were preventing their customers from withdrawing money. The ruble also declined quite a bit.

These are still the opening salvos. Europe stands to be hit very very hard, mass layoffs are in the cards for this year and next. Thus Macron's alarm bells.

Medvedev of Russia is urging a worldwide economic war against the West. This is only going to get more and more complicated and messy.

[Pargat Perrer]

We have France going far-right (Frexit?) and we have England swinging left.

It reminds me of a newspaper comic I saw years ago (yes, newspaper comic, from the age just after the dinosaurs).

A man is running from left to right and is passing by a man running right to left.

The man on the left says "I'm running away from it all!"

The man on the right responds "So am I!"

[Frank Dixon]

It's easy to be discouraged, but I take heart over a few recent developments:
1) Iran: A reformist candidate was elected as the new president; he is a heart surgeon. Very interesting.
2) Britain: Very powerful results for Labour (the new government with 411 of 650 seats) and for the centrist Social Democrats, which won their most-ever seats. The previously ruling Conservative party was decimated, and the former PM said he would soon resign as party leader.
3) France: The far right was held back in the run-off elections on Sunday.
Donald Trump is set to be sentenced over 34 felony convictions, this week.

[Pargat Perrer]

Last week the CEO of JP Morgan issued a warning to the western democracies. He said Russia, Iran and North Korea are forming an "axis of evil" that is going to repress the world for the next 100 years.

This came out just after news that Iran is sending ballistic missiles to Russia.

I think the scenario that is keeping Pentagon people awake at night, and that this CEO has imagined, goes like this:

Iran: "Ok, Russia, we help you overwhelm Ukraine. In return, you help us overwhelm Israel, give us nuclear warhead technology. We are almost there with processing uranium to weapons requirements."

Putin: "Agreed, and our friends in North Korea will help as well."

at some point, Israel has to come to terms that in their war of hatred against Iran, there is "big brother" Russia hovering in the background.

The clock is running out on Israel's ability to bomb Iran's nuclear materlals facilities in a major way, preventing them from getting to the warhead stage .....

[Pargat Perrer]

Last week the CEO of JP Morgan issued a warning to the western democracies. He said Russia, Iran and North Korea are forming an "axis of evil" that is going to repress the world for the next 100 years.

This came out just after news that Iran is sending ballistic missiles to Russia.

I think the scenario that is keeping Pentagon people awake at night, and that this CEO has imagined, goes like this:

Iran: "Ok, Russia, we help you overwhelm Ukraine. In return, you help us overwhelm Israel, give us nuclear warhead technology. We are almost there with processing uranium to weapons requirements."

Putin: "Agreed, and our friends in North Korea will help as well."

at some point, Israel has to come to terms that in their war of hatred against Iran, there is "big brother" Russia hovering in the background.

The clock is running out on Israel's ability to bomb Iran's nuclear materlals facilities in a major way, preventing them from getting to the warhead stage .....

Looks like the above post was very timely, give the events of the last few days, Iran launching 180 ballistic missiles at Israel and warning much more could come .....

Joe Biden importantly says Israel bombing Iran's nuclear facilities would NOT have US support.

But Biden is a lame-duck President, and Netanyahu has already distanced himself from Biden. Even if USA military helps shoot down Iranian missiles.

so far I have not seen any reporting on Russia's take on these developments .... after all, FWIW the New Testament of the Christian Bible does predict that Russia and China together will attack Israel for the battle of Armageddon .....

[Sid Belzberg]

Israel has to come to terms that in their war of hatred against Iran

Israel enjoyed excellent relations with Iran pre-1979 before the Islamic capture of this country. Israel has no hatred of Iran, they have a hatred of those who interpret Islam as an open season for those who do not practice Islam, in particular, Christians and Jews, and, of course, Israel. Eighty percent of Iranians want to be liberated from this horrific government.

The shah's son envisions a rebuilt Iran at peace with Israel - opinion

For the son of the shah, the journey back to a free Iran would be one that ends in a better version of the place where it began.

By DAN PERRYSEPTEMBER 27, 2024 18:

Israel and Iran Iran has for 45 years been such a negative force, driving wars against Israel, spreading jihadi poison throughout the Middle East, and menacing the world with a nuclear arms race that it can be hard to contemplate anything different.

But the son of the last shah says that with a little help, Iran might soon become a democratic nation in harmony with the West and partnership with Israel.

“It could happen relatively fast,” said Reza Pahlavi, 63, in a video interview from his Washington base. “The nation is ready.”

Pahlavi said that at least 80% of the Iranian people oppose the Islamic Republic, are aware of their ancient, friendly ties to the Jewish people, and yearn for a government that reflects their democratic aspirations and peace-loving nature.

He argued that regime change in Tehran could radically transform the Middle East, including Israel’s approach to the Palestinian question – because if Israel were not menaced by Iranian proxies like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, it could be more accommodating.
israel p
“The two-state solution remains on the table as the probably most desired outcome, but the climate has to exist,” he said.

Israel cannot remain constantly under attack


“Israel cannot be constantly under attack by proxy groups that Iran is provoking. If, let’s say, the circumstances for true peace finally exist, then shame on Israel and its government not to take that opportunity. But until that situation exists, shame on those who are blaming Israel for protecting itself. It’s just an existential threat.

“Israel is the only exception in the Middle East as a democratic country [and] it could be an extremely important strategic partner to us. Why should we be in conflict?” he said.

“And that’s why I’m saying that the relationship with the two countries, when we benefit as strategic partners, and we include in that partnership the rest of the region… then everybody benefits.”

It is, of course, a vision extraordinarily at odds with a moment in history when Israel finds itself in an escalating conflict with the Iranian proxy Hezbollah, which from Lebanon has been bombarding and rocketing Israel’s North for almost a year, causing tens of thousands to be displaced and leaving the region on the cusp of total war that to a great degree has been instigated by Iran.

But Pahlavi assesses that the Iranian regime is actually rather brittle, because it is so unpopular, and has been emboldened by “weak” Western efforts to engage it: “You should actually understand why it has to be regime change as a solution because at the end of the day, it’s not the gun but the finger on the trigger. It doesn’t matter what they sign. You can’t trust them for a second.”

He believes regime change is possible if the West provides targeted support to opposition movements, including massive sanctions on regime elites and logistical backing for national strikes, alongside robust engagement with Iranians through social media to reassure them of a better future.
Crumbling like communism


DRAWING PARALLELS to the fall of communism, he said Iran’s regime could crumble unexpectedly under the right circumstances.

In the interview, he argued that the promise of a future wide-scale amnesty could compel defections from key regime elements, including parts of the military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Pahlavi, 63, fled Iran as a young man when his father, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown in 1979. Within months, the country was reconstituted as an Islamic Republic – a gamble by the armed forces and the country’s elites that very quickly became a nightmare for the regime and for Iran’s people.

Today he is offering himself as a unifying transition leader in a post-theocracy phase – a notion that rests on name recognition, a certain nostalgic bent, and what seems like a genuinely inclusive and liberal worldview.

My conversations with Iranian dissidents suggest it may be viable, though far from a sure thing. There would certainly be howls of protest from some people who remember the dark side of the shah.

Pahlavi pointed out that the relationship between Jews and Iranians predates modern Israel by millennia. The biblical roots of this connection go back to Cyrus the Great, the iconic Persian leader who is revered in Jewish history for allowing the Jews to return to Jerusalem and rebuild the Temple.

Modern relations between Iran and Israel were strong before the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Under the shah, Iran was one of the few majority-Muslim countries to maintain close diplomatic ties with Israel.

Economic, military, and cultural cooperation flourished. It wasn’t until the rise of the Islamic Republic, under Ayatollah Khomeini, that hostility toward Israel became a cornerstone of Iran’s foreign policy.

The broader implications of a democratic Iran extend beyond Israeli-Palestinian relations. Today proxy militias and terrorist groups, armed and funded by Iran, not only threaten Israel’s security but also destabilize countries across the Middle East, from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen.

Pahlavi points to the success of the Abraham Accords, which have normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, as evidence of the potential for a new, more peaceful Middle East.

He believes that the Iranian people, watching the rapid development in Gulf states at peace with Israel like the United Arab Emirates, sense a missed opportunity.

Iran, under a democratic government, could become a regional leader in innovation and economic growth – another incentive to seek peace with Israel rather than conflict.

“Look at the writing on the wall: The day after the October 7 attack, the regime tried everything to boost this pro-Palestinian movement even in soccer stadiums they were raising the Palestinian flag,” he said. “I invite you to observe for yourself: People were chanting slogans pro-Israel, and telling where to shove that flag to the regime.”

It’s tempting to believe all this might come about – but is it the standard human weakness that makes us grasp for an appealing scenario in the face of evidence to the contrary? I am not so sure.

I visited Checkpoint Charlie mere months before the Berlin Wall came down – and did not foresee the coming change. Pahlavi’s optimism is dazzlingly alluring, yes – but it may not be unfounded.

Could he be the man who brings the vision to life? For the son of the shah, the journey back to a free Iran would be one that ends in a better version of the place where it began.

[Pargat Perrer]

Israel enjoyed excellent relations with Iran pre-1979 before the Islamic capture of this country. Israel has no hatred of Iran, they have a hatred of those who interpret Islam as an open season for those who do not practice Islam, in particular, Christians and Jews, and, of course, Israel. Eighty percent of Iranians want to be liberated from this horrific government.

.....

I wasn't talking pre-1979. I was talking TODAY.

Missing from your narrative is any mention of Russia. And that is a huge omission. You talk about Islam and it's desire for "open season" etc.... but you ignore the political currents that guide everything going on today. Iran has aligned itself with Russia. That is the situation today. Forget pre-1979.

I argue that this political association is far more important than any Islam - Jewish holy war concept. Russia mostly supresses Islam within its own borders, but Iran doesn't care about this. I doubt very much that the leadership of Iran sees the nation as leading a future world conversion to Islam.... unless 'future" is a really really long time ..... like after the Antarctic ice cap has melted ....

The significance is that Russia (Putin) is NOT going to let Iran swing over to become a democratic nation at peace with Israel. It doesn't matter what the people of Iran may or may not want. It is a full-scale commitment to Russia at the highest levels, and it includes military assistance for Russia in their war with Ukraine. In return, iran expects assistance with becoming a nuclear weapon state. And that plays directly into Russian plans and desires.

Russia has Iran's back, and Israel knows this. Even if Putin isn't saying anything right now, he is keeping abreast of it all and should Israel overstep .... Russia will intervene, possibly even with the assistance of Chin (but at this stage, participation of China is a long shot).

We are back into a very polarized world. But it is politics / nationalism, not religion, that is the backbone of it. Iran has picked the side of Russia.

Incidentally, it is a huge double standard that USA gives full support to Israel to bomb back anyone who bombs Israel, but refuses to give Ukraine the same permission when Ukraine is bombed. NATO has been terribly weak against Russia and continues to be so ....

EDIT: getting back to my comment about the New Testament, it is very interesting that USA is not mentioned even offhandedly anywhere in the Bible, but Russia definitely is and some say China is as well.

[Sid Belzberg]

I wasn't talking pre-1979. I was talking TODAY.

Missing from your narrative is any mention of Russia. And that is a huge omission. You talk about Islam and it's desire for "open season" etc.... but you ignore the political currents that guide everything going on today. Iran has aligned itself with Russia. That is the situation today. Forget pre-1979.

I argue that this political association is far more important than any Islam - Jewish holy war concept. Russia mostly supresses Islam within its own borders, but Iran doesn't care about this. I doubt very much that the leadership of Iran sees the nation as leading a future world conversion to Islam.... unless 'future" is a really really long time ..... like after the Antarctic ice cap has melted ....

The significance is that Russia (Putin) is NOT going to let Iran swing over to become a democratic nation at peace with Israel. It doesn't matter what the people of Iran may or may not want. It is a full-scale commitment to Russia at the highest levels, and it includes military assistance for Russia in their war with Ukraine. In return, iran expects assistance with becoming a nuclear weapon state. And that plays directly into Russian plans and desires.

Russia has Iran's back, and Israel knows this. Even if Putin isn't saying anything right now, he is keeping abreast of it all and should Israel overstep .... Russia will intervene, possibly even with the assistance of Chin (but at this stage, participation of China is a long shot).

We are back into a very polarized world. But it is politics / nationalism, not religion, that is the backbone of it. Iran has picked the side of Russia.

Incidentally, it is a huge double standard that USA gives full support to Israel to bomb back anyone who bombs Israel, but refuses to give Ukraine the same permission when Ukraine is bombed. NATO has been terribly weak against Russia and continues to be so ....

EDIT: getting back to my comment about the New Testament, it is very interesting that USA is not mentioned even offhandedly anywhere in the Bible, but Russia definitely is and some say China is as well.

I wasn't talking pre-1979. I was talking TODAY.

Obviously pre 1979 is very relevant in light of this "pearl of wisdom" spewing out of your stupid mouth;

Israel has to come to terms that in their war of hatred against Iran

Stop deflecting the subject to rationalize your provably false and moronic statements. You think this is restricted to a "holy war" between Israel
and radical Islam???? The UK is now a crime infested shithole thanks to the globalist policies, as is Sweden and of course, the brilliant job the diaper-soiling pedophile senile puppet President of the United States has inflicted on America for the last 3.5 years.
Unbelievably ignorant moron!

[Pargat Perrer]

Obviously pre 1979 is very relevant in light of this "pearl of wisdom" spewing out of your stupid mouth;

Obviously .... obviously .... so obviously that you don't back up your statements with anything ... and you call ME a moron.

You can shout it from the rooftops, but we live in a time where minds are hardened, no one listens any more, everything that doesn't line up with biases is fake news.

Stop deflecting the subject to rationalize your provably false and moronic statements. You think this is restricted to a "holy war" between Israel
and radical Islam???? The UK is now a crime infested shithole thanks to the globalist policies, as is Sweden and of course, the brilliant job the diaper-soiling pedophile senile puppet President of the United States has inflicted on America for the last 3.5 years.
Unbelievably ignorant moron!

Really going off the rails, I have to wonder about your sanity with your spewage and your profanities and your nonsensical statements ...

It is strange because sometimes you can put forth a coherent and incisive set of arguments ... but other times, like this, you just devolve into the worst kind of foaming at the mouth.

You STILL don't want to talk about Russia. I think you do realize that the East / West polarization is centered in 2 places: Ukraine and the area of Israel / Gaza / Lebanon / Syria.

There are LOTS of crime infested shithole areas in the world, Argentina is now becoming another one thanks to the poverty-inducing policies of the right-wing government there. Yes, there has been corruption there, but the solution is NOT to go to the extreme right, it is to go back to the center. As far as UK is concerned, that nation has really extended its life after the end of its colonial empire, and now it is finally meeting its ultimate end-of-civilization karma. Similarly, the USA is extending its influence, but make no mistake, it is on the path to collapse. The price of gold is on the rise, pay special attention to that because fiat currencies are skating on very thin ice. But to lay this on Biden is totally misdirected.

I haven't heard any news about Sweden, maybe you can enlighten us. I do know they are less neutral militarily than in the past, more vigilant against Russia, but I don't know if that's what you are referring to.

I believe you are a very mentally unstable person. I leave it to others to decide who is the moron ..... in this thread, I just present what is happening, but unlike you, I don't presume anyone here will start any kind of a movement to change anything .....minds are already made up. It's like the US election where you have huge swaths of hardened Republicans, huge swaths of hardened Democrats, and a tiny sliver of people who are actually THINKING ....

[Sid Belzberg]

You STILL don't want to talk about Russia

Yes, you still don't want to talk about false and misleading statements

Israel has to come to terms with that in their war of hatred against Iran

[Pargat Perrer]

Yes, you still don't want to talk about false and misleading statements

If it's so probably false and misleading .... PROVE IT!

You don't prove ANYTHING with opinion pieces.

Go ahead .... PROVE that Russia and Iran are not working together!

[Sid Belzberg]

If it's so probably false and misleading .... PROVE IT!

You don't prove ANYTHING with opinion pieces.

Go ahead .... PROVE that Russia and Iran are not working together!

• The relationship between Iran and Israel before 1979 was cooperative.
• Post-1979, Iran's stance towards Israel became overtly hostile under the Islamic Republic.

This is a historical fact, not merely an "opinion piece." Hence the statement "war of hatred against Iran." is false and misleading
Just like your claim that you are Pargat Perrer is false, prove to me otherwise. Pretending that your name is being unjustly distorted
is not proof. In the other thread "vaccines and climate change scams" are perfect examples of government corruption at its very worst
that was unnaturally forced on people, typical reality inversion on your part. Your are nothing but an ignorant, lying, nasty troll scumbag and I will now
do what I should have done a long time ago, ignore you.

[Pargat Perrer]

• The relationship between Iran and Israel before 1979 was cooperative.
• Post-1979, Iran's stance towards Israel became overtly hostile under the Islamic Republic.

This is a historical fact, not merely an "opinion piece." Hence the statement "war of hatred against Iran." is false and misleading
Just like your claim that you are Pargat Perrer is false, prove to me otherwise. Pretending that your name is being unjustly distorted
is not proof. In the other thread "vaccines and climate change scams" are perfect examples of government corruption at its very worst
that was unnaturally forced on people, typical reality inversion on your part. Your are nothing but an ignorant, lying, nasty troll scumbag and I will now
do what I should have done a long time ago, ignore you.

We could go back and forth, back and forth, back and forth about the total nature of the mid-East conflict and its roots and history. What it all has to do with is the displacement of populations, Jewish and Arab, and the hatred accumulated over eons between the two major religions Judaism and Islam.

When I wrote "war of hatred" I did not say all the hatred was coming from Israel, yet this is how you immediately and stupidly perceived it because you are a knee-jerk reactionist. You have no ability to envision anything with an open mind. You are biased to the extreme and your profanities and blinder mentality demonstrate this again and again here on CT.

You keep talking 1979 ... pre- and post-1079 ... but this Judaism / Islam conflict goes way beyond that. What I have been talking about is the PRESENT DAY ... and the cooperation between Iran and Russia. You took the "war of hatred" phrase the wrong way and have made a fool of yourself and I just laugh in your face.

This thread is about GEOPOLITICS and not religion. You just didn't grasp that, sorry that it went over your head. Yes, the two topics are intertwined, but geopolitics like regular politics can make VERY STRANGE BEDFELLOWS. To wit, Iran and Russia.

So I will ignore your foolish behavior and move on. And as for my true identity, well, you are a fine one to talk, seeing as how a google search on "Sid Belzberg" reveals almost nothing. You have been taking extreme pains to hide personal details about yourself for decades. I merely do the same, for reasons of my own choosing. And really .... if I were Paul Bonham .... what would be the point? Why would I not continue to post as Paul Bonham if that's who I really were? It is just something you use as a red herring, nice try, but no one is buying what you are selling (and if they are, I think they must share your personal faults as I have outlined, your knee-jerk reactionism that gets you embarrassed again and again).

So to continue, ignoring the silly foaming-at-the-mouth reactionist troll ....

latest news is that Biden is urging Netanyahu not to attack Iran's oil facilities (for obvious political reasons, rise in oil prices etc...) guess what, Russia WANTS VERY BADLY for Israel to attack Iran's oil facilities. Rise in oil prices is very necessary to finance Russia's war in Ukraine.

It will be very interesting to see what direction Netanyahu goes with on his revenge attack on Iran. If it is oil facilities, there will be a very severe break between USA and Israel. If it is NOT an attack on Iranian oil facilities, Putin will be very angered to the point where he might decide on getting Russia directly involved in Iran's defence.

And that is just the tip of the iceberg. The cycle of revenge attacks will go on until something gives ... which again might mean direct Russian involvement in this entire affair.

I keep thinking of Mitt Romney, trying to warn us about Russia way back in 2012. Everyone laughed back then, but Romney knew what he was talking about.

[Pargat Perrer]

[......
In the other thread "vaccines and climate change scams" are perfect examples of government corruption at its very worst
that was unnaturally forced on people, typical reality inversion on your part. ....

There is no proof of these claims. There is no proof of a massive conspiracy to kill off some percentage of the population.

The Covid vaccines were NOT the product of governments or of a global cabal. They were the product of Big Pharma, a monstrosity created via your stock market economic philosophy. They did what had to be done under very adverse conditions, using your very stock market philosophy to ensure it brought ROI. If they took shortcuts or didn't do due diligence, it was BECAUSE of this need to emphasize ROI.

Talk about "revisionist history" ....

In your stock market philosophy, you talk endlessly about efficiency of getting products and services to market

What you don't talk about is the nature of the products and services themselves, and what value they have to humanity and society. In the vast majority of cases, these products and services are harmful to human society and civilization, even if the harm is not immediately evident.

Remember the Steve Martin move "The Jerk"? He invents a hook that is placed on the bridge of every pair of eyeglasses frames, so that people can easily pull off their glasses when required. He sells gazillions of these.

Then he gets sued because everyone is going cross-eyed from having to look at these hooks ....

Get the message? Not everything your stock market philosophy produces is good for people. In fact, most of it is NOT good for people, because the profit motive has a distortion effect. In the Steve Martin move, we can empathize with him because he meant well. Even meaning well is not enough if you are guided overwhelmingly by profit motive.

Oftentimes what is needed is to go beyond profit motive to determine what is really needed, and to pay some attention to the downsides of what is being proposed. Only governments or not-for-profits will do that, not for-profit corporations.