Prediction - US Presidential 2024

[Bob Armstrong]

If Landslide: Maybe Trump will go to jail?

Bob A

[Pargat Perrer]

If it's a landslide for Harris, then many soft MAGA voters have seen thru the BS. Waves of violence and/or attempts at cheating are less likely. No telling what a hard core MAGA base might try, but without widespread support, it will not succeed.

I hope you are correct, in both the landslide prediction and the comments above. My concern is based on the fact it didn't take tens of thousands of people to bring about the "Jan 6th" insurrection.

Nationally it might not be widespread support for MAGA, but regionally and in hard-core red states,
you have to account for majority supporting MAGA and you have to account for the passion and willingness to possibly resort to violence. True, it might not succeed, but after how much rioting and other bad behavior? The anti-war stuff in the 1960s might pale by comparison. My prediction if there's a Harris landslide is for huge swaths of violence in the hard red states.

Meanwhile, what becomes of Trump himself? Again, I can't see him just riding off into the sunset. He will likely lead a secession movement.

[Bob Gillanders]

If it's a landslide for Harris, I fully expect and predict waves of violence / disobedience and perhaps civil war instigated by these groups. If it's a very close result, they might be restrained to fighting the results politically.

If it's a landslide for Harris, then many soft MAGA voters have seen thru the BS. Waves of violence and/or attempts at cheating are less likely. No telling what a hard core MAGA base might try, but without widespread support, it will not succeed.

[Pargat Perrer]

Harris campaign continues to steamroll forward and Trump continues to collapse, but a lot could happen between now and November. Very difficult to gauge the speed of change and there is always a lag between the polls and what if the election were today.

I will summarize my updated prediction as such:

Democrats safe and likely votes 270, add Nevada 6, total 276. My last if election were held today prediction, Harris 276, Trump 262.
The balance of the battleground states are very close to joining Harris column, but hard to say exactly when.
But I believe they will all shortly be there, if trends continue.
So: add Arizona 11, Georgia 16, North Carolina 16, 43 +276 = 319 - most likely Harris total in election.

If predictions of a landslide are realized, add Florida 30, Texas 40, Maine 1 district, 319 +71 = 390
Will any of the hard core Red states join the landslide?? Probably not.

So most likely prediction as of today - Harris 319 Trump 219.

If these kind of numbers start showing up soon in national polls, we have to wonder at the reaction from Republicans / the hard right / the evangelicals. Trump is seen by many in these groups as a God- given Savior for America. They are chomping at the bit for Trump to retake the White House.

If it's a landslide for Harris, I fully expect and predict waves of violence / disobedience and perhaps civil war instigated by these groups. If it's a very close result, they might be restrained to fighting the results politically.

There will in either case be efforts to get some red states to secede from the United States.

[Bob Armstrong]

Nationally

The Economist's updated poll tracker puts Kamala Harris two points ahead of Mr Trump nationally.

The Economist - The Economist This Weekend Newsletter - 24/8/10

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

Harris campaign continues to steamroll forward and Trump continues to collapse, but a lot could happen between now and November. Very difficult to gauge the speed of change and there is always a lag between the polls and what if the election were today.

I will summarize my updated prediction as such:

Democrats safe and likely votes 270, add Nevada 6, total 276. My last if election were held today prediction, Harris 276, Trump 262.
The balance of the battleground states are very close to joining Harris column, but hard to say exactly when.
But I believe they will all shortly be there, if trends continue.
So: add Arizona 11, Georgia 16, North Carolina 16, 43 +276 = 319 - most likely Harris total in election.

If predictions of a landslide are realized, add Florida 30, Texas 40, Maine 1 district, 319 +71 = 390
Will any of the hard core Red states join the landslide?? Probably not.

So most likely prediction as of today - Harris 319 Trump 219.

[Pargat Perrer]

Battleground States (Continued)

Part II; See Part I above


Arizona

The New Colorado. Long a bastion for conservative orthodoxy, the state that sent Barry Goldwater and John McCain to Washington was a consistent gimme for Republicans. Absent the blips of 2020 and 1996, you’d have to go back to Harry Truman’s 1948 re-election bid to find evidence that its 11 electoral votes were in play. (For the record, Trump still hasn’t accepted the results of his narrow loss there in 2020.)

The Democrats’ ad agencies have logged about $44 million for the general election, lapping the Republicans’ $17 million. It might be sage restraint from the GOP bookers, though. Trump has consistently polled better in Arizona than his Democratic opponent in all but one public poll dating back to October. Bloomberg/Morning Consult is the lone voice saying Harris is up by 2 points, but that’s inside the 3-point margin of error, meaning it’s another jump ball. On average, Trump is up by about 3 points in the RCP averages. Yet again: more information is needed here.

Down the ballot, the Senate race is tilted heavily in Democrats’ favor, with about 84 cents of every ad dollar on their side of the ledger. The roughly $65 million-to-$12 million mismatch will certainly help Democrats across the party in a state where two Republican-held House seats are in play. And, no, you didn’t read those numbers wrong; spending on Senate ads is outpacing presidential spending in that state so far.

Nevada

Trump’s surprising stronghold. Despite his hostile rhetoric toward migrants and immigrants, and a xenophobic patina that has been present since the creation of his political ambitions, Trump is maintaining his most durable lead there. In the RCP poll average, Trump is ahead by about 4 points while incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is up by the same margin, perhaps setting herself to be the first incumbent member of the Upper Chamber to split a statewide ticket since Susan Collins did in Maine in 2016. On top of that, there are three House districts that lean Democratic but are far from certain.

On the air, Nevada and its six electoral college votes is the puny pal for the other six main swing states. Democrats have booked a relatively paltry $24 million on the screens, still dominating the $27 million in play. Rosen’s side has placed about $72 million of the $102 million on the table for the Senate.

The major unknown is what the labor movement will do. Unions were hardcore Biden allies, but the transfer of their loyalty to Harris is expected but not guaranteed. It’s why she is heading there on Thursday to start to make sure labor is still with her.




The four fringe states

These are not the big-ticket targets for the campaigns, but some strategists in the states—and some home-state loyalists—think they were prematurely cast aside.

Ohio has fallen from its once-time legendary status as bellwether bigwig. Trump won its 17 electoral college votes twice with only minimal effort and the state Democratic Party is a far cry from its last heyday during Obama’s campaigns. But with a competitive Senate race there drawing $310 million in a roughly even split and on track to be the most expensive airwar in the Senate this cycle, there will be a whole lot of interest in turning out voters in a state that leans red but still gave incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown his last term by an almost 7 point margin in 2018.

Republicans are desperately trying to pitch Virginia as a potential pick-up place for Trump and are trying to build a bare-bones campaign machine there to force Harris to invest. But popular Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine seems coasting toward a third term. The airwaves for that Senate race are largely empty, although three of the state’s 11 congressional districts will lack an incumbent seeking another term, meaning there could be some spending in the northern Virginia suburbs around D.C.

Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to make a similar play in Florida. Trump won the state twice, but only by about 3 points in 2020. Yes, it’s his home state these days, but there is also a Senate race that has some Democrats optimistic that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could knock off Republican Sen. Rick Scott, who has never won any of his races with a majority of the vote. Harris is hustling for Florida’s 30 electoral votes, especially in South Florida.

Finally, there’s always Texas. Democrats for years have said the state’s changing demographics would decide its destiny. Yes, the population is softening its conservative shell, but it’s still Texas. Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is posting fine polling but he remains a longshot to bump Sen. Ted Cruz out of Washington. Democrats have parked about $25 million down there for the Senate race, almost entirely unopposed by Cruz and his allies. Most polls have Cruz’s advantage in single digits, meaning a late wave of blue energy could shift this long-promised and never-realized realignment of Texas. Texas has a huge load of 40 electoral votes and a massive media landscape, but taking the Lone Star State off the GOP gimme list would be a coup unseen in a generation.

Time - The DC Brief Newsletter - 24/8/8

https://view.newsletters.time.com/?q...cfcf67e9ec676e

Bob A

Is there anyone giving a state-by-state assessment of undecided voters as a percentage of the total voters?

Texas has 40 electoral votes, but if the undecideds are only say 5 percent, they could all go Democrat and not change the outcome. I say 5 percent because Texas seems very hard-coded red, like Alabama.

[Bob Armstrong]

Battleground States (Continued)

Part II; See Part I above


Arizona

The New Colorado. Long a bastion for conservative orthodoxy, the state that sent Barry Goldwater and John McCain to Washington was a consistent gimme for Republicans. Absent the blips of 2020 and 1996, you’d have to go back to Harry Truman’s 1948 re-election bid to find evidence that its 11 electoral votes were in play. (For the record, Trump still hasn’t accepted the results of his narrow loss there in 2020.)

The Democrats’ ad agencies have logged about $44 million for the general election, lapping the Republicans’ $17 million. It might be sage restraint from the GOP bookers, though. Trump has consistently polled better in Arizona than his Democratic opponent in all but one public poll dating back to October. Bloomberg/Morning Consult is the lone voice saying Harris is up by 2 points, but that’s inside the 3-point margin of error, meaning it’s another jump ball. On average, Trump is up by about 3 points in the RCP averages. Yet again: more information is needed here.

Down the ballot, the Senate race is tilted heavily in Democrats’ favor, with about 84 cents of every ad dollar on their side of the ledger. The roughly $65 million-to-$12 million mismatch will certainly help Democrats across the party in a state where two Republican-held House seats are in play. And, no, you didn’t read those numbers wrong; spending on Senate ads is outpacing presidential spending in that state so far.

Nevada

Trump’s surprising stronghold. Despite his hostile rhetoric toward migrants and immigrants, and a xenophobic patina that has been present since the creation of his political ambitions, Trump is maintaining his most durable lead there. In the RCP poll average, Trump is ahead by about 4 points while incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is up by the same margin, perhaps setting herself to be the first incumbent member of the Upper Chamber to split a statewide ticket since Susan Collins did in Maine in 2016. On top of that, there are three House districts that lean Democratic but are far from certain.

On the air, Nevada and its six electoral college votes is the puny pal for the other six main swing states. Democrats have booked a relatively paltry $24 million on the screens, still dominating the $27 million in play. Rosen’s side has placed about $72 million of the $102 million on the table for the Senate.

The major unknown is what the labor movement will do. Unions were hardcore Biden allies, but the transfer of their loyalty to Harris is expected but not guaranteed. It’s why she is heading there on Thursday to start to make sure labor is still with her.




The four fringe states

These are not the big-ticket targets for the campaigns, but some strategists in the states—and some home-state loyalists—think they were prematurely cast aside.

Ohio has fallen from its once-time legendary status as bellwether bigwig. Trump won its 17 electoral college votes twice with only minimal effort and the state Democratic Party is a far cry from its last heyday during Obama’s campaigns. But with a competitive Senate race there drawing $310 million in a roughly even split and on track to be the most expensive airwar in the Senate this cycle, there will be a whole lot of interest in turning out voters in a state that leans red but still gave incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown his last term by an almost 7 point margin in 2018.

Republicans are desperately trying to pitch Virginia as a potential pick-up place for Trump and are trying to build a bare-bones campaign machine there to force Harris to invest. But popular Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine seems coasting toward a third term. The airwaves for that Senate race are largely empty, although three of the state’s 11 congressional districts will lack an incumbent seeking another term, meaning there could be some spending in the northern Virginia suburbs around D.C.

Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to make a similar play in Florida. Trump won the state twice, but only by about 3 points in 2020. Yes, it’s his home state these days, but there is also a Senate race that has some Democrats optimistic that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could knock off Republican Sen. Rick Scott, who has never won any of his races with a majority of the vote. Harris is hustling for Florida’s 30 electoral votes, especially in South Florida.

Finally, there’s always Texas. Democrats for years have said the state’s changing demographics would decide its destiny. Yes, the population is softening its conservative shell, but it’s still Texas. Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is posting fine polling but he remains a longshot to bump Sen. Ted Cruz out of Washington. Democrats have parked about $25 million down there for the Senate race, almost entirely unopposed by Cruz and his allies. Most polls have Cruz’s advantage in single digits, meaning a late wave of blue energy could shift this long-promised and never-realized realignment of Texas. Texas has a huge load of 40 electoral votes and a massive media landscape, but taking the Lone Star State off the GOP gimme list would be a coup unseen in a generation.

Time - The DC Brief Newsletter - 24/8/8

https://view.newsletters.time.com/?q...cfcf67e9ec676e

Bob A

[Bob Armstrong]

Americas - USA

Presidential/Other Election - Tues., Nov. 4, 2024.

The Role of the States/Battleground States

Part I of 2 parts



Here is a state-by-state breakdown of the seven states that insiders think will decide the results—and four others that might be worth keeping in mind. First, a crucial caveat: we still have not fully assessed what the swap from President Joe Biden to Harris and the addition of her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, will mean as fresh and better polling lands on strategists’ desks.

Pennsylvania

The biggest prize on the board right now and the most important piece of Democrats’ firewall against Trump. A combined $211 million of White House-focused messages is set to air in Pennsylvania alone, according to Axios’ analysis of ad spending, and it’s the one state where there’s relative parity in spending. Democrats’ campaign and super PACs are set to cover $109 million of it while Republicans’ efforts will power $102 million in the window between the end of the GOP primary and Election Day, both sides hoping to snag the state’s 19 electoral votes. Put plainly: it’s a rare fair fight where Republicans are matching Democrats’ ad spending, and it’s the most expensive sandbox for either party.

Polling, too, shows a fierce fight. Trump is ever-so-slightly ahead there by about 2 points, but well within the margins of error in the surveys. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by about 4 points, but independents still claim about 11% of voters. Essentially, the state remains a jump ball, and one that is tough to catch and even tougher to hold. To wit: at this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 8 points over Trump and four years later Biden was up by 5 points. Come Election Day, Clinton lost the state to Trump by less than 1 point, and Biden carried it by about the same margin. No one from either party should feel cocky about Pennsylvania.

Wisconsin

The biggest regret for the Democrats in 2016. The last Republican to win Wisconsin before then was Ronald Reagan—twice—before Trump upended Clinton’s assumptions and carried its 10 electoral votes. Clinton never visited the state as the 2016 nominee. Her team was convinced history would hold and that corner of the Upper Midwest would stay blue. They were wrong, with Trump winning narrowly with just 47% of the vote.

Democrats are not making the mistake again. With $49 million in presidential advertising scheduled this general election cycle, the airwaves in Wisconsin are almost entirely the purview of what is now Team Harris. Trump’s media circle has just $15 million tied to the state, and has not matched Democrats’ aggressive efforts to court Black voters in Milwaukee the way Biden successfully did in 2020. The investments were made even before Harris became the first Black and Asian-American woman to lead a major party’s ticket, and Harris could be a changemaker on the political landscape in a locale with one of the better state party organizations in the nation.

Still, it’s lost on no one that Republicans convened in Milwaukee to officially nominate Trump. The earned-media circus there bombarded local voters, perhaps offsetting the Democrats’ packaged ads that strategists in both parties concede are mattering less and less (even as the old-school consultants continue to push them).

Michigan

The biggest unknown for either side. Michigan was a reliably Democratic state until 2016. Michigan—along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—effectively crushed Clinton’s path to 270 votes and Democrats are determined not to have a repeat of that hiccup. That’s why Harris and Walz parked Air Force Two there on Wednesday night for an airport rally that trolled Trump’s favorite tableau. Republicans are trying to make Harris’ and Walz’s support for Israel into a disqualifying factor in the state’s large Arab-American, Muslim, and young voter populations, but it may end up being more a phenomenon on social media than at the ballot box.

Even so, polling suggests a tight race for the state’s 15 electoral college votes. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll taken after Biden dropped out of the race gave Harris an 11-point advantage, although most polling this cycle has shown Democrats up by a scant two points. At this point four years ago, Biden was up more than 7 points but would win by less than 3 points. Similarly, Clinton at this point in her run was also up almost 7 points and would lose by about one-third of a point. This is a case where more polling needs to be conducted about the Harris/Walz ticket to carry any real weight with donors.

Down the ballot, it’s a roughly even split in the state’s $70 million in Senate ad spending. At the presidential level, it’s less balanced, with about 80 cents of every dollar on ads backing Harris, and the whole White House kitty is about $100 million in Michigan. Democrats brag that they’re miles ahead of Trump when it comes to organizing offices and communities, but that has been the case before to disappointing results.

North Carolina

The Democrats’ white whale, or the Republicans’ safety state. Trump enjoys his second-largest lead in polling averages there, but Democrats insist there is still a viable chance for them to make inroads. Only once since 1980 have the state’s 16 electoral votes gone for Democrats, but that is not stopping Democrats from laying down a $28 million marker to Republicans’ $4 million ad spending placeholder. It’s a similar optimism to 2012, when Democrats nominated then-President Barack Obama for a second term in Charlotte only to see a 2-point defeat.

Still, there’s a rational reason for Democrats to focus on this Southern Wall Street: voters who affiliate with neither party are the largest bloc in the state, with almost 37% saying they don’t match a Republican or Democratic label. Democrats have a slight, 2 point advantage there, but that’s not sufficient to carry the state. This means Democrats are smart to use North Carolina as a proving ground for their efforts to reach persuadable, non-partisan votes. If Democrats can nail North Carolina, that’s a solid test kitchen for them to replicate the political cake elsewhere.

Georgia

The newest member of the swingers’ club. Before Biden’s 2020 bid prevailed there—much to Trump’s allegedly criminal objections—the last Democrat to carry the state’s electoral votes was Bill Clinton back when Sony was introducing MiniDiscs in 1992. The rising power of the Black vote and the migration of the film and TV industry to Atlanta shifted Georgia in a major way. Coordinated efforts to empower Black voters yielded an all-blue Senate delegation in 2021 for the first time since 2003, and Democrats remain bullish that they could still throw its 16 electoral votes to Harris.

On the air, Democrats have a clear two-to-one margin in the $87 million general election bookings. On the phones, Democrats have quickly erased what had been a Trump advantage in polling since Harris emerged as the new top of the blue ticket. A week before Biden’s calamitous June debate that put in motion the drumbeat that marched him aside, Trump was polling 10 points ahead. That advantage is now less than 1 point.

Without a Senate race and boasting zero competitive House races, the White House race is the whole game in Georgia. That means Harris’ ability to fire up Black and women voters is where that race hinges there. And, for Trump’s campaign, the anecdata does not give reason for much hope. Perhaps that explains why Trump visited Georgia over the weekend and spent much of his time on the ground attacking fellow Republicans and laying the predicate to again claim the state is rigged against him. “Trump may have just lost Georgia,” a former lawmaker there told my former colleague Greg Bluestein of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution after the rally.

See Part II below

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

I am updating my prediction.
Polls for Nevada are now showing a tie, and the momentum is with Harris, so move those 6 Nevada votes from Trump to Harris.

If the election were held today: Harris 276, Trump 262.

Georgia maybe next.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Perfect pick. The commercials write themselves.

[Bob Gillanders]

I love the pick of Tim Walz for VP. The energy and enthusiasm of the Harris Walz rally yesterday was wonderful.
The experts and polls still should a tight race, but Fred senses a landslide, me too. I will be watching the coverage and updating my prediction ASAP.

[Fred Harvey]

I believe recent election experiences tell us that when it is time to get rid of tired politicians, and there is a credible alternative to vote for, there is a landslide. And although the more vengeful among us might wish differently, the result of an election should not depend on the legal system, but rather on enough voters coming to their senses. I suspect at the end of the day, we will have a landslide, I hope we have a landslide, but I can't remember when I was actually correct in my electoral predictions, or voting for a winner!

[Frank Dixon]

I believe that only Maine and Nebraska have a split electoral college assignation. Every other state, plus D.C., assigns all its electoral college votes to the state's winner of the popular vote.

I believe that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (who spent much of her youth in Montreal!) has enhanced her ticket's chances by picking Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. He has a much superior achievement record to Republican VP candidate JD Vance; he also seems sensible, which is more than most could say about Vance.

I see the presidential race as too close to call at this juncture. The Democrats have a better chance now than before President Joe Biden stepped aside. Much depends on the outcomes of the several Trump court cases which are active, and will have progress to report before the November election. Trump could receive a jail term when he is sentenced in New York in September.

[Bob Armstrong]

USA Electoral College (How the President/Vice-President get elected.)

"In the United States, the Electoral College is the group of presidential electors that is formed every four years during the presidential election for the sole purpose of voting for the president and vice president. The process is described in Article II of the U.S. Constitution.^[1] The number of electoral votes a state has equals its number of Senators (2) plus its number of Representatives in the House of Representatives, the latter being dependent on the Census's reported population. Each state appoints electors using legal procedures determined by its legislature, equal in number to its congressional delegation (representatives and 2 senators) totaling 535 electors in the 50 states. A 1961 amendment granted the federal District of Columbia three electors. Federal office holders, including senators and representatives, cannot be electors. Of the current 538 electors, a simple majority of 270 or more electoral votes is required to elect the president and vice president. If no candidate achieves a majority there, a contingent election is held by the House of Representatives to elect the president and by the Senate to elect the vice president.

The states and the District of Columbia hold a statewide or district-wide popular vote on Election Day in November to choose electors based upon how they have pledged to vote for president and vice president, with some state laws prohibiting faithless electors. All states except Maine and Nebraska use a party block voting, or general ticket method, to choose their electors, meaning all their electors go to one winning ticket. Maine and Nebraska choose one elector per congressional district and 2 electors for the ticket with the highest statewide vote. The electors meet and vote in December, and the inaugurations of the president and vice president take place in January.

The merit of the electoral college system has been a matter of ongoing debate in the United States since its inception at the Constitutional Convention in 1787, becoming more controversial by the latter years of the 19th century, up to the present day.^[2][3] More resolutions have been submitted to amend the Electoral College mechanism than any other part of the constitution,^[4] with 1969–70 as the closest attempt to reform the Electoral College.^[5]

Supporters argue that it requires presidential candidates to have broad appeal across the country to win, while critics argue that it is not representative of the popular will of the nation.^[a] Winner-take-all systems, especially with representation not proportional to population, do not align with the principle of "one person, one vote".^[b][9] Critics object to the inequity that, due to the distribution of electors, individual citizens in states with smaller populations have more voting power than those in larger states."

Wikipedia

Bit confused: Is it that some states commit ALL their electoral votes to the ticket winning their state, while others divided them proportionately to the vote result, while others have decided their own unique way of allocating their electoral votes?

If so........must be tricky trying to project which electoral votes may go where?

Bob A