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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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It's Halloween, 31 October 2013. The Leafs record as of last night, and after today, will be 10 wins and 4 regulation losses, for a total of 20 points. Remember this post come 30 November, and see what the Leafs record is then.
This humble seer continues in his belief that the Leafs' early good-luck tour is about to be over! :D
There is no way to reason with someone who harbours deep superstitions and delusions in any field. As I clearly said before the season even started, the Leafs have a particularly well put together roster this season ( in fact, one would think you might appreciate how many of their new additions came from winning hockey programs, versus the Jays who brought in a lot of players from losing teams ). I have also since mentioned that the Leafs have a relatively weak schedule in November ( in fact, they had numerous tough games in late October ).
I'm not sure what luck has to do with leading the league in scoring AND having two of the more dependable goalies in the league.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Thursday, 31st October, 2013, 06:35 PM.
I smell a wager. Why don't you two guys bet 20 bucks on the outcome? If the Leafs are over .500 for November then Duncan wins. If they are below .500 for November then Kevin wins. If they are exactly .500 then no money changes hands. I don't follow hockey but I have a feeling based only on the arguments that Duncan is the favourite in this wager.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
I can use a particularly goofy animal for my chesstalk avatar until the 2013-14 NHL season is done, if the Leafs do over .500 in November 2013, if Duncan wishes a gentleman's bet. Like I alluded earlier, I prefer not to bet money. This wager applies only if Duncan either promises an embarrasing avatar of his own to offer as his own for the same length of time, or if he doesn't know how to do that, he can use "Kevin Pacey predicts sports results better than I do" for his chesstalk signature to all his chesstalk messages for 2013-14. :D
[edit: Duncan must also accept the gentleman's bet before the first Leaf game in November 2013]
Fwiw, atheletes themselves are often particularly superstitous (not that I call myself unusually so ). Take the wearing of beards during playoffs, for example. The Red Sox can now shave for wives/girlfriends (yes, even I still rue the Blue Jays [altogether predictable] fate in 2012-13 :().
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Thursday, 31st October, 2013, 09:17 PM.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
I thought your theory was that they'd tank in November. So out of 13 games how many do you think they will win ? I can't see a 6-7 or 7-6 or 5-5-3 record for example changing their season fortunes much.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Thursday, 31st October, 2013, 10:40 PM.
I was using Tom's suggested benchmark for a wager, but changing to less expensive stakes than his suggested one, in order to make it a gentleman's bet that you may wish to accept.
I don't expect the Leafs to do poorly only in November. Their decline from there will continue from there, at varying rates, until they're out of playoff contention. Anyway, the Leafs losing 8+ games in regulation in November would not surprise me much, given their tradition of collapsing at some point, but I grant you the odds of the Leafs losing more than 8 games are less than 50-50, just based on my gut feeling.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
It doesn't help that Anderson has let in 11 goals in the last 2 games he's played.
I have to admit I'd forgotten how vital goal tending can sometimes be, especially in the playoffs, while I was still into the baseball season. However that doesn't change my sentiments much regarding Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto or New Jersey.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
I have to admit I'd forgotten how vital goal tending can sometimes be, especially in the playoffs, while I was still into the baseball season. However that doesn't change my sentiments much regarding Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto or New Jersey.
I have a hard time keeping track of all the teams you write about.
I can use a particularly goofy animal for my chesstalk avatar until the 2013-14 NHL season is done, if the Leafs do over .500 in November 2013, if Duncan wishes a gentleman's bet. Like I alluded earlier, I prefer not to bet money. This wager applies only if Duncan either promises an embarrasing avatar of his own to offer as his own for the same length of time, or if he doesn't know how to do that, he can use "Kevin Pacey predicts sports results better than I do" for his chesstalk signature to all his chesstalk messages for 2013-14. :D
[edit: Duncan must also accept the gentleman's bet before the first Leaf game in November 2013].
Hi Duncan
If you find my original gentlemen's bet proposition unpalatable, I can offer a similar gentleman's bet that's safer for both of us (as far as chesstalk embarrassment potential goes), and it is consistent with the arguments we've been making in this thread about the Leafs' chances in November:
Gentlemen's Bet option 2:
Same conditions as the original gentlemen's bet I proposed (see the quote in this post), except for you to lose the Leafs have to lose at least 8 games in regulation in November 2013, while for me to lose the Leafs have to win 8 or more games in (or after) regulation in November. Otherwise neither of us loses (or wins).
The Gentlemen's Bet option 2 gives you slightly better odds of me than winning, assuming the Leafs games in November were decided completely randomly. All in all this is very good option, even for those with a nervous disposition. :p
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
I think you avoided the question of the Leafs record for November. Like how many wins and loses in November.
As a comment, it doesn't matter much what non monetary wager you wish to make. Without money he may not be interested. Particularly since you're being obnoxious toward the Leafs.
Besides the 2012 Leaf report link I gave for Duncan (on a previous page of this thread) on the reasons for the Leafs' historical lack of success, I can back up my intuition against the Leafs having success any time soon, as far as the playoffs go, with any number of reasons that may or may not be seen as logical by at least some.
For example, since the NHL salary cap was put into place, it has served as a catalyst for the tendency towards greater parity between all 30 NHL teams. The teams that do best either are fortunate with draft picks that turn out to be lucky, and/or their scouting staff is exceptional. The Leafs' historic lack of success since 1967 has to do at least partly with this. The other part may be psychology (i.e. not so much any manner of superstition, though I seem to recall some sort of unfortunate scandal happening decades ago at the old ML Gardens that may have caused some sort of 'curse' to befall the organization, not that I believe that any subsequent Leaf teams would have deserved it).
This I would theorize is because the Leafs as an organization have failed so long, and so spectacularly at times, that as soon as a serious downturn in their fortunes begins, as far as losing too many games goes, the players along with the at-game spectators (both of whom may be superstitous) begin to think 'Oh no, here we (the Leafs) go again'. Certainly the fans become harder on the Leafs, which adds to the players' negative psychology. I grant you, there are sports psychologists, but any team that has had such a long drought becomes a special case, like Charlie Brown's baseball team. ;)
At any rate, the Leafs have broken my heart for so many decades that I can't help but feel some antipathy towards the team, which I do, however, try to fight off at least in times when I'm in tune with the better angels of my nature.
Getting back to the salary cap, I wonder if that is one reason why none of the Canadian NHL teams have managed to win a Stanley Cup for so long. Certainly NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman has an interest in seeing greater success for US teams, as he wants the American markets to become as lucrative as they may have the potential to be. He was the one who presided when the salary cap was imposed.
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Saturday, 2nd November, 2013, 03:49 PM.
Reason: Spelling
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Tweet
). Take the wearing of beards during playoffs, for example. The Red Sox can now shave for wives/girlfriends (yes, even I still rue the Blue Jays [altogether predictable] fate in 2012-13 :().
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