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Tomorrow Carlsen, who has a mathematical chance of making a tie for first place, will try to break up Caruana's streak with the black pieces. Caruana only needs a draw to lock up 1st place.
I expect Carlsen to go for the win but I don't like his chances.
Caruana came into this tournament spotting Carlsen 69 FIDE points (2870 to 2801). The deficit is now down to 31.1 points (2866.2 to 2835.1) and will get very close to 20 if Caruana can extend his perfect streak one more game.
Caruana is also now within 0.4 FIDE points of the 3rd highest FIDE rating ever, 2835.5, achieved by Aronian earlier this year on February 2nd. Even a draw tomorrow with Carlsen will eclipse that mark.
Aronian, of course, was the #2 player in the world prior to this tournament but now trails Caruana by a whopping 42.3 points.
FC: I keep winning although I am not trying to go for a record; I would have been satisfied with a draw today; I played a pretty unambitious line but just took over which was very unexpected and happened so suddenly.
MA: He played 14. Qa4 and you played Qh4 and then he played 15. g3; would you have expected that just like that these moves would have been on the board and his king started marching to c3, like a lamb to slaughter? Are you hypnotizing people?
FC: I am not sure what he missed. Qa4 was a very strange move. I won a pawn without any struggle and the game soon after.
MA: There was a point when you were just blitzing out the moves.
FC: I expected resignation and he shocked me with 38. a5. I am always worried when there are pawns on a7 and b6. But I was a queen up so that should be enough.
MA: You play Magnus Carlsen tomorrow. How big is that?
FC: As big as any other. I don’t intend to do anything special. For me a draw is a reasonable result and a win… I am not going to play for a draw from the start, just normal chess.
MA: Magnus said that it is a big game for him. He is going for it in this game.
FC: I expected that. He has to at this point, we shall see what happens.
MA: When you go back to your room and you are with your coach – are you high-fiving it or is he looking at you funny?
FC: He is shocked because in most tournaments I usually manage, even if I started well, to ruin it pretty quickly and here that has not happened. I expect it each game but so far it hasn’t happened.
________
Chess.com: MVL came down the stairs after his game and for a moment was baffled at what had just happened. "It's frustrating, but it is frustrating for all of us."
He described Caruana's performance as "il envoie du lourd" which colloquially means "it blows you away" in French.
Here's another way to view what's going on: even if he only scores 0.5 in his remaining three games, his final performance rating will still be right at 3000!
_______
In yesterday’s game with Topalov, Caruana’s second, Vladimir Chuchelov, prepared the move 13. Re2.
He told chess.com:
"How else to get the bishop to d2?" said Chuchelov.
Although the idea looks simple, Chuchelov said that the computers don't have it as a top recommendation.
Caruana must also know the ideas well -- he used the same opening from the opposite side against GM Dragan Solak at the 2014 Olympiad.
When asked how he finds strong novelties that are not computer discoveries, Caruana's second smiled wryly and talked about "a feeling a position gives you that there is something there."
Chuchelov has actually known about the move for a while -- he showed it to Caruana about a year ago but struggled to remember the original student that he found it for. That's about the only oversight team Caruana has made in St. Louis.
"It's all coming together in one tournament," Chuchelov said of his work with Caruana. He explained that three games have been won by preparation, and three by Caruana over the board. "I don't know what to do anymore!" he said, simultaneously joyous and exasperated about the good fortune.
________
Comments online:
- 25% chance of Caruana winning each game.
25% = 0.25 probability
Probability of him winning 7 games would be (0.25)^7, which is equal to .000061, or 6/100,000.
Multiply that by 6 players in the tournament, and the chance of any of the players starting 7-0 is 3.6/10000, or 0.036%.
Not sure where you guys got 1 in 14 million from but you're waaaaaay off. 1 in 14 million would be the chances of going about 11-0 or 12-0.
- Only three things are certain: taxes, death, and Nakamura losing to Carlsen.
- Significant chess for 2014
Carlsen world champion of Classic, rapid and blitz
China won gold
Polgar retired
Kasparov lost FIDE presidency
Rise of Caruana
And Anand won the Candidates
Not to take anything away from Caruana, but given the extremely bad play of his opponents, if Bobby Fischer were still alive I have no doubt but that he would state that this tournament is fixed. And Qa4 yesterday, leaving the area of the endangered King, and threatening nothing, is a move we patzers would not consider let alone make. Yes, Caruana is playing great chess, BUT... it is almost unbelievable how off form his opponents are. The strongest chess tournament in history?
Not to take anything away from Caruana, but given the extremely bad play of his opponents, if Bobby Fischer were still alive I have no doubt but that he would state that this tournament is fixed.
I think that's a little strong. I haven't seen anything to suggest that.
This event is like the Candidates where Ananad won handily. The opponents are not off form. They are reasonably competitive with each other. When the event is over we can strip out Caruanas score and see how the players would have finished without him.
A player can not be held responsible for the play of his opponents. He can only punish bad play.
By my calculation, Caruana can draw his final 3 games and still end with an extraordinary TPR of 3,082!
Carlsen is only plus one against Caruana in 15 classic matches (5 wins, 4 losses, 6 draws) so today's encounter gives Caruana the opportunity to even the classic score. Carlsen is vastly superior at the faster time controls, however, with 8 wins versus just 2 losses (and no draws!) but Caruana is not an elite blitz player (not even in the top 40).
Carlsen does perhaps have one minor trend working for him today. Their two August games (Tromso and St. Louis) were both won by Black and Carlsen does have the Black pieces today. Prior to Carlsen's win with White yesterday, he was on record as saying he was only playing well with Black here in St. Louis.
Carlsen is vastly superior at the faster time controls, however, with 8 wins versus just 2 losses (and no draws!) but Caruana is not an elite blitz player (not even in the top 40).
That might be a plus. Some of the stuff which works at fast time controls might not work at classic time controls. The opponent has more time to figure them out.
I've always thought speed chess contributes to bad habits. The cheapoes a player sets up become a habit and they often don't work in tournament chess.
It's the same as OTB and CC. For me they didn't mix well.
Not to take anything away from Caruana, but given the extremely bad play of his opponents, if Bobby Fischer were still alive I have no doubt but that he would state that this tournament is fixed. And Qa4 yesterday, leaving the area of the endangered King, and threatening nothing, is a move we patzers would not consider let alone make. Yes, Caruana is playing great chess, BUT... it is almost unbelievable how off form his opponents are. The strongest chess tournament in history?
What's amazing is how everyone has forgotten the implications of the Borislav Ivanov 'cheating scandal'. Remember that no device or system was ever found. That means Ivanov's system COULD BE out there being used by anyone, undetected, and that includes Caruana, as far-fetched as that may be. All of Caruana's remarks about him not knowing what is different in this event could be 'part of the act'. But of course no one will really suspect this because Caruana is a new, fresh face and very likeable and seems very honest and down to earth.
It would be interesting to have Dr. Ken Regan assess this event and give us his take on Caruana's play (and everyone else's for that matter). Is Caruana matching top computer engines to some unusual degree?
I said it at the time of the Ivanov scandal and it bears repeating: organized standard chess is tainted now and into the future by the Ivanov business. All results are suspect!
Absolutely anyone could be using his system, if indeed he had one, and using it not for every move in every game, but for critical moves in critical games... completely undetected AND unsuspected (even by Dr. Regan).
If Caruana were instead a longstanding U.S. GM such as Christiansen or Joel Benjamin and were 7-0, there would be a hue and cry about cheating. For all we know, Caruana and other younger players are cheating their way to the top using Ivanov's system, and each one of them could be thinking s/he is the only one using the system and it's a well-kept secret.
Standard chess is forever tainted with cheating.
Only the rushing is heard...
Onward flies the bird.
What's amazing is how everyone has forgotten the implications of the Borislav Ivanov 'cheating scandal'. Remember that no device or system was ever found. That means Ivanov's system COULD BE out there being used by anyone, undetected, and that includes Caruana, as far-fetched as that may be. All of Caruana's remarks about him not knowing what is different in this event could be 'part of the act'. But of course no one will really suspect this because Caruana is a new, fresh face and very likeable and seems very honest and down to earth.
It would be interesting to have Dr. Ken Regan assess this event and give us his take on Caruana's play (and everyone else's for that matter). Is Caruana matching top computer engines to some unusual degree?
I said it at the time of the Ivanov scandal and it bears repeating: organized standard chess is tainted now and into the future by the Ivanov business. All results are suspect!
Absolutely anyone could be using his system, if indeed he had one, and using it not for every move in every game, but for critical moves in critical games... completely undetected AND unsuspected (even by Dr. Regan).
If Caruana were instead a longstanding U.S. GM such as Christiansen or Joel Benjamin and were 7-0, there would be a hue and cry about cheating. For all we know, Caruana and other younger players are cheating their way to the top using Ivanov's system, and each one of them could be thinking s/he is the only one using the system and it's a well-kept secret.
Standard chess is forever tainted with cheating.
You are just the mentally disabled person I have ever known on an online forum and that includes such immaculate sites as ESPN, IMDB, and Youtube. Congratulations Paul, you are the winner.
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