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Most of the polls have a margin of error of 3 or 4 points and sometimes more so it is a bit silly to get worked up over minor variations in these polls. If someone is up by three points its within the margin of error of the poll and should be treated as such.
Neil, you've made it clear that you're a Trump supporter but surely you're not so naive as to believe that only the Democrats use the sleazy technique of push polling, are you?
"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
"Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
"If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey
As I said in a PM to Garlz, I've been following Trump's epic career for over two decades. I also said that since the rep primaries what he says is quite repulsive.
I thought at that time it was because USA has moved well left of center, but what I didn't understand then is to how deep that movement is within America's business and elite. But what I couldn't see then is how corrupt these business and elite social democrats seem to be ... much thanks to WikiLeaks.
The only poll I look at now is IBD tracking poll ...sigh.
This may have already been mentioned in this thread (if so, my apologies for not hanging off every word...)
but this Washington Post article today caught my eye:
Professor Who Has Predicted 30 Years of Presidential Elections Doubles down on Trump
(CNN) — FBI Director James Comey said Friday the bureau is reviewing new emails related to Hillary Clinton's time as secretary of state, according to a letter sent to eight congressional committee chairmen, a surprise development with 11 days until the election.
After recommending this year that the Department of Justice not press charges against the Secretary of State, Comey said in the letter that "recent developments" urged him to take another look.
"In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear pertinent to the investigation," Comey wrote the chairmen. "I am writing to inform you that the investigative team briefed me on this yesterday, and I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation."
Comey said that he was not sure long the additional review would take and said the FBI "cannot yet assess whether or not this material may be significant."
Last edited by Rene Preotu; Friday, 28th October, 2016, 01:38 PM.
Looks like they take it seriously. Trump jumps from 5:1 to 3.5:1, which reflects around 27% chances to win. American market does not like Trump. Major indexes lost 0.7% immediately.
Looks like they take it seriously. Trump jumps from 5:1 to 3.5:1, which reflects around 27% chances to win. American market does not like Trump. Major indexes lost 0.7% immediately.
How did you get 27%?
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
3:1 is 33%. 4 to 1 is 25%. 5 to 1 (yesterday) is 20%. So 3.5:1 is 28-29%. However, it is slightly less because of the gap for bookmaker.
Is this a European standard? I've never heard of 3:1 being 33%. I've only heard it referred to as 25% (e.g. you bet $1 you get $3 in profit plus your initial $1 back).
Actually, you can set whatever standard you want. Likely, you are regular to use American standard, I prefer the European one. In this case, 3.5:1 means "I bet 1 USD and get back 3.5 (including my initial 1) USD if Trump wins.
If 2 competitors have equal chances, it is around 1.95 to 1. It should be 2:1 for both, but it's lower because of the gap for the bookmaker.
Using American standard, Trump jumped from 4:1 to 2.5:1.
Last edited by Victor Plotkin; Friday, 28th October, 2016, 02:42 PM.
The simple way we learned in school is 3:1 = 3/4 chances = 75%. Always easier to change to fractions. So, I think you meant Trump was 1:5 = 1/6 chance of being elected. 5:1 would make him a heavy favourite, but I knew what you meant Victor.
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