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Robert Downey Junior is campaigning for Hillary. I wonder if he will visit her in prison.
Who would think it would be a bad idea for your right hand woman to share computers with a pervert (Anthony Weiner) whose name is pretty much descriptive of his life.
It looks like House of Cards: Hillary gets in the office but has to resign after the FBI investigation and Tim Kaine becomes the President.
I think a lot of crazy scenarios are in play now. IMHO, electing Trump remains the worst case scenario.
I guess now: after Obamacare premium increases, more wikileaks dumps, and now further FBI investigations, the polls will tighten again.
This mornings polls:
LA Times/USC Tracking = Trump +2
ABC News Tracking = Clinton +2
IBD/TIPP Tracking = Clinton +4
But I doubt the new FBI investigations announced yesterday are factored fully in yet.
It is curious to see now that the IBD/TIPP Tracking poll is the one most favourable to Clinton.
Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Saturday, 29th October, 2016, 08:37 AM.
In truth yes, but they were serious. I can accept that a conservative might find Donald Trump unpalatable but to campaign for Hillary after all she is and all she has done is simply incomprehensible.
I think a lot of crazy scenarios are in play now. IMHO, electing Trump remains the worst case scenario.
I guess now: after Obamacare premium increases, more wikileaks dumps, and now further FBI investigations, the polls will tighten again.
This mornings polls:
LA Times/USC Tracking = Trump +2
ABC News Tracking = Clinton +2
IBD/TIPP Tracking = Clinton +4
But I doubt the new FBI investigations announced yesterday are factored fully in yet.
It is curious to see now that the IBD/TIPP Tracking poll is the one most favourable to Clinton.
It is probably not factored in at all yet. You have to look at the details of the poll to understand the time frame. I would guess that its a dead heat at the moment. While CNN, MSNBC and CNBC tried to put a brave face on it you could see by their glum countenances and the total lack of joy that they understand that this was a major blow. Calling for the FBI director to release the 30,000 emails is just silly. He can't do that in 10 days. He has a case to put together. Perhaps Hillary should release the non-classified ones herself.
Don't all polls make the following two assumptions about the people being polled:
they can tell the difference between truth and lies.
they disapprove of lies.
No, they make no such assumptions. All a poll can tell you is that, assuming the sample is a random one of the entire population (admittedly a big assumption) x% plus or minus y% of that population would have answered the question (whatever it was) in a certain way at the time the poll was taken. The error range depends only on the number in the sample, assuming it was truly random, not the number of people in the population.
A poll tells you nothing and assumes nothing about the reasons why they would give those answers.
A poll tells you nothing and assumes nothing about the reasons why they would give those answers.]
Fine, but I think you're missing my point.
Bob G. posts poll results here and, like a lot of people, thinks those polls tell us something about what voters will do on polling day.
If (enough) of the people being polled don't distinguish between truth and lies and/or don't disapprove of lies, then the results of the poll have nothing to tell us about what they will do.
Well, we don't know the fallout yet of the new FBI investigation, but here is a wild scenario to consider:
Clinton's lead collapses.
She still gets all the Blue states, but the battleground states, not so much.
The Financial Times predictor has 263 electoral college votes for Clinton in blue states.
If she can add Colorado or North Carolina, she wins.
But if she wins no battleground states, she is stuck at 263.
Independent candidate, Evan McMullin wins Utah - 6 votes.
Trump wins all the rest, but comes up short at 269. The most, but you need 270 to win.
Then it goes to the House, where they choose a President from among the 3 top contenders.
Who do they pick: Trump, Clinton, or McMullin?
The senate picks the VP from the 2 top contenders.
Who do they pick: Pense or Kaine?
Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Sunday, 30th October, 2016, 07:27 PM.
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